Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Euro 2012 Preview

Today's games went as expected - Croatia and Ireland cruised to victory after their hefty first-leg wins, the Czechs also came through without much trouble after a 1-0 win, and Portugal took care of business in a close game which blew open into a 6-2 victory. Now that the sixteen teams are set for the tournament in Ukraine and Poland next summer, I'll give a short overview of each team in the tournament.

FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain

The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.

POWERS: England, France, Italy

Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.

PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden

Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.

MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine

It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.

PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.

This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.

SLEEPER: Denmark.

Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.

BUST: England.

As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.

All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.

No comments:

Post a Comment