Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

UEFA Euro 2012 - Extensive Preview

The club season has come to a close and it is time for the summer's international showpiece, UEFA's Euro 2012. It should be a good, competitive tournament - it is very much up for grabs. Spain are favorites after winning the last edition as well as the 2010 World Cup. Germany and Holland are also looking strong, and after that, there is a noticeable drop-off. Hosts Poland and Ukraine are not particularly deep or full of quality, while typical powerhouses are in transition phases. England is crippled by injury, France are rebuilding from their disastrous World Cup campaign, and Italy are in the midst of another scandal. There could be a dark horse this year, but the three favorites should go deep in this tournament.

GROUP A

Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic

Who will advance: Poland, Russia

Why:

Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.

GROUP B

Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark

Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands

Why:

This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.

GROUP C

Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland

Who will advance: Spain, Italy

Why:

Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.

GROUP D

Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France

Who will advance: France, England

Why:

Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.

KNOCKOUT STAGES

I have created a bracket based on my predictions:

FINAL

Teams: Netherlands v Germany

Who will win: Germany

Why:

The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.

These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.

Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1

I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.

Euro 2012 Preview

Today's games went as expected - Croatia and Ireland cruised to victory after their hefty first-leg wins, the Czechs also came through without much trouble after a 1-0 win, and Portugal took care of business in a close game which blew open into a 6-2 victory. Now that the sixteen teams are set for the tournament in Ukraine and Poland next summer, I'll give a short overview of each team in the tournament.

FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain

The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.

POWERS: England, France, Italy

Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.

PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden

Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.

MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine

It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.

PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.

This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.

SLEEPER: Denmark.

Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.

BUST: England.

As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.

All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.

Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Second Legs

For the most part, Friday's games played out as expected. Bosnia and Portugal were defensive in a 0-0 draw, but both Postiga and Ibisevic missed golden opportunities for their respective sides. The Czechs took down Montenegro 2-0 in a very narrow game, but the key was the second goal for the Czechs, which came in extra time. I mentioned how solid both of these sides are defensively, and the two-goal deficit makes for a difficult task for Montenegro. An away goal by the Czechs would end the tie, and while I don't want to give up on the underdogs, they would need a historic effort to go through. Ireland is in fantastic shape after a 4-0 win in Estonia. The Irish got the early goal they needed and let the Estonians self-destruct - they ended the game with just nine men. The game at the Aviva is merely a formality, and some of the unfancied players in Ireland's team may feature. Croatia's 3-0 win in Turkey came as somewhat of a surprise, but only for the margin. Croatia have been in far better form and were tested better in the group stage than the Turks, and their quality showed. It was almost too easy for the Croats, and a for a side managed by Guus Hiddink, Turkey must be very disappointed.

WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.

That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.

Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Preview

This international break is crucial for eight countries - Portugal, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Montenegro and Estonia will fight for the last four spots in Euro 2012, with the first leg at the unseeded opponent on Friday, followed by the second leg at the seeded opponent on Tuesday. At this stage, the favorites typically go through, but there are a number of surprise packages in this tournament's qualifying, so the ties should be very interesting. Slovenia's defeat of Russia to qualify for the 2010 World Cup gives all the underdogs at this stage hope to get through.

Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.

PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals

Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.

PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate

Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.

PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate

Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.

PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.

Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.