A quick recap of last week's action: Mario Gomez scored in the 90th minute to hand Bayern a 2-1 win over Real Madrid in Munich, while a first-half injury time goal from Didier Drogba gave Chelsea a 1-0 win over Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. With both underdogs winning their first legs at home, both ties are well-positioned for dramatics in this week's finales.
Barcelona (0) v Chelsea (1)
Chelsea could have wrote the definition for "smash-and-grab" as they held just 26% of possession and had one shot on goal in their victory over Barcelona. While their defensive performance was sound and resolute, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan (myself) must admit that they rode quite a bit of luck during the contest, as Fabregas, Sanchez and Busquets all missed fairly routine opportunities to score. However, they succeeded in frustrating Barcelona and did a great job of taking Lionel Messi out of the game, and their superb run of form will give them plenty of confidence heading into the second leg. Barcelona looked deflated after that defeat and it carried over into Saturday's El Clasico with Real Madrid, resulting in a 2-1 defeat for the Catalans, all but clinching the title for Madrid.
A great deal of attention has come to Barcelona's struggles away on "smaller" pitches, with their home, the Camp Nou, being larger and giving them more space to work with. But their pitch is just 2.4 yards longer and 0.7 yards wider, so will that make too much of a difference? I don't believe so. Di Matteo will play this game exactly like the first tie, providing Drogba will be able to overcome his knee injury. Chelsea rested eight players on Saturday against Arsenal, and they should all return against Barcelona, while the Catalans only rested Fabregas and Sanchez against Real Madrid. The extra rest could benefit Chelsea greatly, as Barcelona looked tired against Madrid and their passing was not nearly as sharp as usual. Barca will be more comfortable at home despite possible fatigue and letdown from the loss in El Clasico, and it would be surprising to see them held goalless again. I think Chelsea just need to score, as I don't see Barca putting three past them. Barca's hopes lie on the fitness of Gerard Pique. There is no doubt they will possess the ball, probably at least 65% of the game, and Chelsea will try and counter when they can. If Pique is able to play effectively, he can take away some of Drogba's aerial threat and strength, as Puyol and Mascherano simply cannot handle him. If he is not able to play the full ninety minutes, Chelsea should find a way to nick a goal and get through to the final. This tie is going to be the first time all year I renege on my original selection, as I am backing the Blues to score in Spain and get through to the final.
Prediction: Barcelona 2-1 Chelsea (2-2 aggregate, Chelsea through on away goals)
Real Madrid (1) v Bayern Munich (2)
Bayern were the better side on Tuesday, and much to their relief, they got the deserved winner from Gomez very late in the contest. Real did not play well at all, and Bayern enjoyed many of the best chances and a greater deal of possession. Bayern were able to rest a number of players on Saturday with the Bundesliga all-but decided (Dortmund clinched it later that day), while Madrid played the exact same line-up against Barcelona that they played in Munich. There will be some tired legs out on the pitch for Los Blancos, but playing in their home stadium will certainly increase their chances.
These sides are very close in terms of skill and experience so both games have been expected to be tight - this game should be no different. Bayern have struggled mightily away from home this season, dropping a number of points in the league away to mid-table sides along with a shocking loss in Switzerland to FC Basel. Bayern just cannot seem to get into the same kind of flow as they do in the Allianz Arena, and now they come up against the best coach in getting results from home games, Jose Mourinho. Real have won every home game they have played in Europe this season by at least three goals, although they have not played a team near the quality of Bayern. This game will be a battle between Real's possible fatigue and Bayern's will to play the final in their home stadium. Just like the first game, I expect both sides to score and there to be plenty of chances. Real should be able to put more of a stamp on the game than in Munich, and while this game could be very open, they know they only need a single goal to go through. This tie could still go either way, but I think Real will be boosted by their defeat of Barcelona and march on to the final.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Bayern Munich (4-3 on aggregate)
Monday, April 23, 2012
Monday, April 16, 2012
Preview: Semifinals of 2011-2012 UEFA Champions League
The long-awaited first legs of the semi-finals of the Champions League are this week, with Bayern Munich hosting Real Madrid on Tuesday, while Chelsea take on Barcelona at the Bridge on Wednesday. They should both be great games, and with favorites Real and Barca on the road things could get very interesting.
Bayern Munich (3) v Real Madrid (2)
This matchup is a true heavyweight clash, as the two most successful teams in Germany and Spain, respectively, face off. Both sides display many players of world class talent, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema leading Real's forces while Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery lead Bayern. Bayern's title chase is over, now eight points behind Dortmund with just three games remaining. While domestic and European form are typically separate, it's hard to say that domestic disappointment will not be a blow to Bayern's psyche ahead of this tie. Real are still four points clear of Barcelona in La Liga, but that lead was ten points and Madrid must head to the Nou Camp on the weekend. There is the possibility of a letdown in a game before such a crucial one in the league, especially facing a strong opponent away from home.
The key to the game will be the taking of chances. While there are quite a few national defenders on each side, there should be lots of goals - more than normal for a semi-final matchup in Europe, where teams tend to get very conservative. I don't see this being low-scoring unless Mourinho decides to pack it in at the back and win the tie at home, but given how Madrid have played away this season in Europe, that doesn't seem to be the case. If Robben and Ribery can control the flanks for Bayern, Real will have a hard time putting a stamp on the game. But with teams like these two, all it takes is one small opening, so Gomez and Ronaldo are both good bets to score. With all of the talented, in-form attackers on the field it should be a show in Munich, but it is difficult to say who will win. I think Real have a slight edge in the tie, but Bayern are now squarely focused on this trophy and the idea of winning it in their own arena. It's a real toss-up, but regardless of the result, the tie should still be in the balance when the two teams head to Spain next week.
PREDICTION: Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid
Chelsea (9) v Barcelona (1)
Chelsea enter this game in their best form and state-of-mind of the season, following a 5-1 thumping of London rivals Tottenham (with the aid of a goal that wasn't) at Wembley. Didier Drogba, Juan Mata, and Ramires were fantastic for the Blues, and Roberto Di Matteo faces a difficult selection choice between Drogba and Fernando Torres. Chelsea also have injury issues at the back, with David Luiz doubtful and Gary Cahill nursing a foot injury. Barcelona have injury issues of their own at the back, with Gerard Pique questionable for the game and Eric Abidal still out. A come-from-behind win over Levante at the weekend has Barcelona still in the thick of the domestic race, and the Catalans have won their last five matches overall, and fourteen of their last fifteen.
Barcelona are clear favorites not only for this tie but to win the tournament, so Chelsea face the rare designation of being the underdog. That role has suited the Blues well this season, and despite the squad not being as strong as past years, there is still plenty of quality within the team. A note made in Sunday's FA Cup telecast was "when they play well they are experienced, when they don't play well they are old." That is a perfect characterization of how the media views Chelsea, and on Sunday they were experienced. Di Matteo has consistently rotated his squad and trusted many different players in his interim reign, so I'm interested to see his selection for Wednesday. The defense will depend on injuries, but the major choices are between the likes of Meireles, Essien, Mikel and Lampard in midfield, and between Torres and Drogba up top. Whichever midfield players he chooses must match up with the likes of Iniesta and Xavi, which is no easy task. Barcelona take their free-flowing football wherever they go, and while they have not historically played well in England, they will have the short odds to come out with an advantage. If Chelsea want to stay in this tie, they can not play from behind - Barcelona are deadly with their possession game and can frustrate teams into simple mistakes with their patience. Both defenses are average when healthy, but both sides are banged up, so I think there will be goals in this game as well. However, look for Chelsea to play for conservatively than the teams on Tuesday, and there to be fewer chances and goals. It is vital for Chelsea to not allow Barca to cut them apart, like they do to so many sides
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Barcelona
Bayern Munich (3) v Real Madrid (2)
This matchup is a true heavyweight clash, as the two most successful teams in Germany and Spain, respectively, face off. Both sides display many players of world class talent, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema leading Real's forces while Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery lead Bayern. Bayern's title chase is over, now eight points behind Dortmund with just three games remaining. While domestic and European form are typically separate, it's hard to say that domestic disappointment will not be a blow to Bayern's psyche ahead of this tie. Real are still four points clear of Barcelona in La Liga, but that lead was ten points and Madrid must head to the Nou Camp on the weekend. There is the possibility of a letdown in a game before such a crucial one in the league, especially facing a strong opponent away from home.
The key to the game will be the taking of chances. While there are quite a few national defenders on each side, there should be lots of goals - more than normal for a semi-final matchup in Europe, where teams tend to get very conservative. I don't see this being low-scoring unless Mourinho decides to pack it in at the back and win the tie at home, but given how Madrid have played away this season in Europe, that doesn't seem to be the case. If Robben and Ribery can control the flanks for Bayern, Real will have a hard time putting a stamp on the game. But with teams like these two, all it takes is one small opening, so Gomez and Ronaldo are both good bets to score. With all of the talented, in-form attackers on the field it should be a show in Munich, but it is difficult to say who will win. I think Real have a slight edge in the tie, but Bayern are now squarely focused on this trophy and the idea of winning it in their own arena. It's a real toss-up, but regardless of the result, the tie should still be in the balance when the two teams head to Spain next week.
PREDICTION: Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid
Chelsea (9) v Barcelona (1)
Chelsea enter this game in their best form and state-of-mind of the season, following a 5-1 thumping of London rivals Tottenham (with the aid of a goal that wasn't) at Wembley. Didier Drogba, Juan Mata, and Ramires were fantastic for the Blues, and Roberto Di Matteo faces a difficult selection choice between Drogba and Fernando Torres. Chelsea also have injury issues at the back, with David Luiz doubtful and Gary Cahill nursing a foot injury. Barcelona have injury issues of their own at the back, with Gerard Pique questionable for the game and Eric Abidal still out. A come-from-behind win over Levante at the weekend has Barcelona still in the thick of the domestic race, and the Catalans have won their last five matches overall, and fourteen of their last fifteen.
Barcelona are clear favorites not only for this tie but to win the tournament, so Chelsea face the rare designation of being the underdog. That role has suited the Blues well this season, and despite the squad not being as strong as past years, there is still plenty of quality within the team. A note made in Sunday's FA Cup telecast was "when they play well they are experienced, when they don't play well they are old." That is a perfect characterization of how the media views Chelsea, and on Sunday they were experienced. Di Matteo has consistently rotated his squad and trusted many different players in his interim reign, so I'm interested to see his selection for Wednesday. The defense will depend on injuries, but the major choices are between the likes of Meireles, Essien, Mikel and Lampard in midfield, and between Torres and Drogba up top. Whichever midfield players he chooses must match up with the likes of Iniesta and Xavi, which is no easy task. Barcelona take their free-flowing football wherever they go, and while they have not historically played well in England, they will have the short odds to come out with an advantage. If Chelsea want to stay in this tie, they can not play from behind - Barcelona are deadly with their possession game and can frustrate teams into simple mistakes with their patience. Both defenses are average when healthy, but both sides are banged up, so I think there will be goals in this game as well. However, look for Chelsea to play for conservatively than the teams on Tuesday, and there to be fewer chances and goals. It is vital for Chelsea to not allow Barca to cut them apart, like they do to so many sides
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Barcelona
Friday, April 6, 2012
Top 25 - April 6
The Europa League has been maligned since its creation, and many big clubs do not take the competition seriously when they enter it. But when you look at the teams in the competition, compared to the Champions League, it is hard to justify giving the trophy winner heaps of praise. The Champions League contains the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid, arguably the top two sides in the world, Bayern, the biggest club in Germany and host of this year's final, and Chelsea, a yearly contender in England with a squad full of depth and experience. No team in the Europa League is within thirteen points of the top spot in their respective league, and Athletic (while they have played very well in Europe) is not even in the top half of the table. I don't like to see the competition being watered down by teams playing weak squads, but there is a huge gap in talent between the two European trophies.
Rankings for this week:
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
4 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
5 (4) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (6) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
7 (7) AC Milan (ITA)
8 (8) Juventus FC (ITA)
9 (10) Chelsea FC (ENG)
10 (9) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (11) Arsenal FC (ENG)
12 (12) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
13 (14) Schalke 04 (GER)
14 (13) SL Benfica (POR)
15 (15) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
16 (16) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
17 (18) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (22) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
19 (17) SSC Napoli (ITA)
20 (20) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
21 (21) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
22 (19) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
23 (23) SS Lazio (ITA)
24 (NR) AFC Ajax Amsterdam (NED)
25 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
Dropped from rankings: FC Inter Milan (24), APOEL FC (25)
Notes:
1-10: Manchester United move ahead of Manchester City after putting themselves in the driver's seat for a twentieth Premier League title. It hasn't been a vintage United season, but they have been the most consistent throughout the season, characteristically grinding out results late in games. City have looked like favorites all season, and with the depth and talent of the squad, it was easy to see why. David Silva's dip in form has affected them far more than it should, as their results away from home have been poor for the last month, and they dropped their first points of the season at home on Saturday against Sunderland. It's difficult to see City retaking first place at this point.. Chelsea continue to climb after a below-par aggregate victory over Benfica to advance to a first UCL semi-final in three years. Unfortunately for the Blues, it is Barcelona who await them yet again. Chelsea certainly have a chance against the Catalans but it will be very difficult, especially after seeing Benfica dominate possession for long periods of each game. However, AC Milan exposed some weaknesses in Barca's back line, but simply didn't take their chances. Chelsea will have to put in two of their best performances of the season if they want to reach their second final.. The pressure is growing on Carlo Ancelotti's PSG. Currently a point behind leaders Montpellier with an extra game played, an unthinkable title defeat by the minnows now looks like it could become reality. The French league has been the most competitive league from top to bottom this season, and there are likely a few more twists left in the tale. A quick note - after competing in the Champions League last season, Auxerre now prop up the table. It is very difficult to play consistently in France.
11-25: After eight straight wins in the league, Ajax join the ranks, straight in the thick of a six-team title race. Six Dutch sides sit within four points of each other at the top of the Eredivisie with six games remaining. Ajax are in pole position to secure the title this season, but with the likes of Christian Eriksen and Jan Vertonghen linked with moves in the summer, the club could be rebuilding yet again.. Newcastle have refused to fade. Another tight victory over Swansea takes the Magpies temporarily into fifth place in the table, just two points off of the elusive last Champions League place. Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse have been a lethal pair up top, and Newcastle do not have a difficult run-in. The UCL place is not out of the question.. Lille have regained the form that earned them the self-titled nickname "the French Barcelona." The side will have plenty of talent next year even after Eden Hazard's inevitable departure, and they should be more equipped to compete in Europe. They disappointed in a weak group in this year's Champions League.. Lazio face Napoli on Saturday in a crucial game in the race for third in Serie A. Napoli and Udinese trail Lazio by three points with eight games left. Napoli have struggled since their UCL loss to Chelsea, and a loss in Rome could end their hopes of returning to the competition.. Porto are top of the Portuguese league by a point over arch-rivals Benfica and two points over Braga. Porto have finally regained their stride after a poor early season run following the departure of Andre Villas-Boas. The league title is an exciting three horse race this year, and despite being a point behind, I still believe Benfica are favorites. Despite being thirteen points behind, Sporting are the only Portuguese side left in Europe.
Rankings for this week:
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
4 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
5 (4) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (6) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
7 (7) AC Milan (ITA)
8 (8) Juventus FC (ITA)
9 (10) Chelsea FC (ENG)
10 (9) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (11) Arsenal FC (ENG)
12 (12) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
13 (14) Schalke 04 (GER)
14 (13) SL Benfica (POR)
15 (15) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
16 (16) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
17 (18) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (22) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
19 (17) SSC Napoli (ITA)
20 (20) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
21 (21) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
22 (19) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
23 (23) SS Lazio (ITA)
24 (NR) AFC Ajax Amsterdam (NED)
25 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
Dropped from rankings: FC Inter Milan (24), APOEL FC (25)
Notes:
1-10: Manchester United move ahead of Manchester City after putting themselves in the driver's seat for a twentieth Premier League title. It hasn't been a vintage United season, but they have been the most consistent throughout the season, characteristically grinding out results late in games. City have looked like favorites all season, and with the depth and talent of the squad, it was easy to see why. David Silva's dip in form has affected them far more than it should, as their results away from home have been poor for the last month, and they dropped their first points of the season at home on Saturday against Sunderland. It's difficult to see City retaking first place at this point.. Chelsea continue to climb after a below-par aggregate victory over Benfica to advance to a first UCL semi-final in three years. Unfortunately for the Blues, it is Barcelona who await them yet again. Chelsea certainly have a chance against the Catalans but it will be very difficult, especially after seeing Benfica dominate possession for long periods of each game. However, AC Milan exposed some weaknesses in Barca's back line, but simply didn't take their chances. Chelsea will have to put in two of their best performances of the season if they want to reach their second final.. The pressure is growing on Carlo Ancelotti's PSG. Currently a point behind leaders Montpellier with an extra game played, an unthinkable title defeat by the minnows now looks like it could become reality. The French league has been the most competitive league from top to bottom this season, and there are likely a few more twists left in the tale. A quick note - after competing in the Champions League last season, Auxerre now prop up the table. It is very difficult to play consistently in France.
11-25: After eight straight wins in the league, Ajax join the ranks, straight in the thick of a six-team title race. Six Dutch sides sit within four points of each other at the top of the Eredivisie with six games remaining. Ajax are in pole position to secure the title this season, but with the likes of Christian Eriksen and Jan Vertonghen linked with moves in the summer, the club could be rebuilding yet again.. Newcastle have refused to fade. Another tight victory over Swansea takes the Magpies temporarily into fifth place in the table, just two points off of the elusive last Champions League place. Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse have been a lethal pair up top, and Newcastle do not have a difficult run-in. The UCL place is not out of the question.. Lille have regained the form that earned them the self-titled nickname "the French Barcelona." The side will have plenty of talent next year even after Eden Hazard's inevitable departure, and they should be more equipped to compete in Europe. They disappointed in a weak group in this year's Champions League.. Lazio face Napoli on Saturday in a crucial game in the race for third in Serie A. Napoli and Udinese trail Lazio by three points with eight games left. Napoli have struggled since their UCL loss to Chelsea, and a loss in Rome could end their hopes of returning to the competition.. Porto are top of the Portuguese league by a point over arch-rivals Benfica and two points over Braga. Porto have finally regained their stride after a poor early season run following the departure of Andre Villas-Boas. The league title is an exciting three horse race this year, and despite being a point behind, I still believe Benfica are favorites. Despite being thirteen points behind, Sporting are the only Portuguese side left in Europe.
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