Tomorrow's final features the last two World Cup winners - defending WC and Euro champion Spain and 2006 winners Italy. Both teams came from Group C, and played each other in the first game of the tournament, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The Italians were clearly on top for the first half, with Spain struggling to play without a striker. In the second half, Spain responded to an Italian goal by throwing on Torres, which helped their shape and got them an equalizer.
Spain have played throughout this tournament without a striker, but have been very poor, especially the last two games. Against Portugal they started with a striker (Negredo) and created next to nothing. Spain's passing game can be devastating when they have a lead, but without David Villa, Spain have struggled in this tournament to put passes together in the final third. Italy, who were a huge mystery due to a number of younger players in the squad and the match-fixing scandal hanging over Serie A, have played wonderfully throughout the tournament. Once again, the Italians have responded to scandal by making their countrymen proud, and their only "poor" performance was against England, and they still were able to boss the flow of the game.
The key match-up is going to be in the midfield, with Italy's Andrea Pirlo making his case for player of the tournament with his instrumental passing, against Spain's legendary tandem of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Both Spain and Italy try and dominate possession, and while Italy will likely concede more possession to the Spanish than against other teams, they will not simply sit back and try and counter. They did a solid job of breaking up the Spanish passing game in the opener and will adopt a similar tactical style. Spain will have more possession, but their fight will be to have more meaningful possession. Spain always has a higher number of passes than its opponent, but many of the passes are back and forth between the back line. With just three goals in their last three games, Spain must find a way to move the ball vertically down the field.
The biggest question going into the match will be what formation Spain decides to play. They have struggled in the 4-6 formation, creating very little against Portugal and, despite scoring against France, had just nine shots against a very poor French performance. Del Bosque inexplicably started Negredo against Portugal, and the team improved after his departure. Will he go with Torres, who scored two against the Republic of Ireland but failed to score (or make any kind of impact) in his other spells of play? Or will he stick with Fabregas, who started the first game against Italy, and maintain the possessive, slow-building style that has characterized Spain for the tournament? Italy have no such issue, as Mario Balotelli's brace against Germany must surely affirm his place in the starting line-up. He proved very clinical against the Germans, capitalizing on his two best chances for the winning goals. He had a very poor showing against Spain in the first game, but his performances have improved throughout the tournament, and he should be a menace to deal with.
PREDICTION
Tracking back to my pre-tournament post, I selected two teams from the same group to be in the final - but it was the wrong group, Group B. The Dutch were the huge disappointment of the tournament, losing all three games in the group, while Germany fell to the Italians in the semi-finals. Spain was never matched up with anyone who had the midfield power to beat them, while the Italians have responded better than imagined to the developments on and off the field. Spain have won their last two finals, both 1-0, against the Germans and the Dutch, respectively. Italy have not lost to Spain in a competitive match since 1920. Spain will have more possession in the game, but if they start without a striker, it will be difficult to get the ball past the Italian defense and world-class goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Italy's chances in this game are resting on their ability to take their chances. They did not in their first match-up with Spain or their quarterfinal against England, but did so against Germany. They will have their opportunities against an average Spanish defense, and they must take them.
Finals are often nervy, low-scoring encounters, especially in international football. I really hope it isn't because Spain can put me to sleep when they decide to just pass the ball around in circles. I think they will play their 4-6, with Fabregas up top, and if they are unable to score by the 65th minute or so, Del Bosque will throw Torres on to improve the attacking options. Italy and Spain played to a 0-0 draw in their last competitive meeting, with Spain advancing in Euro 2008 on penalties. Despite history being on the side of the Italians, I'm picking Spain in this final in a very disappointing game. I will be rooting for the Italians though, both for the entertainment and my own personal preference.
Prediction: Spain 1, Italy 0
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
UEFA Euro 2012 - Extensive Preview
The club season has come to a close and it is time for the summer's international showpiece, UEFA's Euro 2012. It should be a good, competitive tournament - it is very much up for grabs. Spain are favorites after winning the last edition as well as the 2010 World Cup. Germany and Holland are also looking strong, and after that, there is a noticeable drop-off. Hosts Poland and Ukraine are not particularly deep or full of quality, while typical powerhouses are in transition phases. England is crippled by injury, France are rebuilding from their disastrous World Cup campaign, and Italy are in the midst of another scandal. There could be a dark horse this year, but the three favorites should go deep in this tournament.
GROUP A
Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic
Who will advance: Poland, Russia
Why:
Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.
GROUP B
Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark
Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands
Why:
This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.
GROUP C
Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland
Who will advance: Spain, Italy
Why:
Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.
GROUP D
Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France
Who will advance: France, England
Why:
Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.
KNOCKOUT STAGES
I have created a bracket based on my predictions:
FINAL
Teams: Netherlands v Germany
Who will win: Germany
Why:
The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.
These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.
Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1
I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.
GROUP A
Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic
Who will advance: Poland, Russia
Why:
Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.
GROUP B
Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark
Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands
Why:
This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.
GROUP C
Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland
Who will advance: Spain, Italy
Why:
Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.
GROUP D
Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France
Who will advance: France, England
Why:
Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.
KNOCKOUT STAGES
I have created a bracket based on my predictions:
FINAL
Teams: Netherlands v Germany
Who will win: Germany
Why:
The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.
These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.
Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1
I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.
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