Tuesday, April 2, 2013

2012-13 UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview



PSG v BARCELONA

How PSG wins: The multitude of talent that PSG owners brought in this summer, which has failed to gel at times, comes together as a team and plays with concerted discipline. Ibrahimovic backs up his billing as a top-five striker in the world and the Parisians counter-attack Barca relentlessly. The other attacking pieces help expose a weak Barca defense and create an advantage to hold for the second leg in Spain.

How BARCELONA wins: They play their game. Barca have proven nearly impossible to stop when they can piece their passing play together, and the story is no different here. They are effective in breaking down a tight PSG defense and produce a strong result in France, while finishing off the French side at the Nou Camp.

Key players: CB Thiago Silva (PSG); CM Xavi (Barcelona)

The holding midfield and defense are always critical against Barcelona, and as one of the top central defenders in the world, Thiago Silva will be the main man in charge of shutting down Barca’s tiki-taka attacking game. Silva has both the pace and tactical know-how to hold their very potent offense at bay. Xavi will be pulling the strings for the Spaniards, and he will continue to be their most important player. Even with his increasing age, Xavi is the heart of this team and he will need to play well against a very talented PSG defensive front.

Who will advance: Barcelona. PSG have loads of talent and could be contenders in the future – for the time being it is likely too soon. Barca have loads more experience in this competition and this would still be early for them to go out. To beat the Catalans, it takes not only talent but discipline, something PSG have not exhibited this year. I do believe in Ancelotti as a coach, but it may be another year or two before we can put PSG with the elite teams in Europe. After last round’s scare against Milan, expect Barca to come out firing and avoid the drama of having to come back in their home leg. This should be a tight tie and if PSG’s defense can hold, they certainly have the attacking prowess to trouble Barca. However, they may not see enough of the ball to take control in this tie and provide a consistent threat in the attacking third. Expect Barcelona to make it through a tough test from the Parisians. 

Prediction: Barcelona 3-1 PSG

REAL MADRID v GALATASARAY

How REAL MADRID wins: Real have superior talent and coaching so they are big favorites to go through. They do not fall behind and build pressure on themselves, and their large array of attacking options are too much for Gala to handle. 

How GALATASARAY wins: The least recognizable name left in the competition, Gala play with nothing to lose. While the club may not be well-known in Europe, their star players prove the quality of their reputation and take the game to Real. They use the same counter-attacking game Dortmund used to beat the Spaniards and smash-and-grab a series of results to sneak through.

Key players: FW Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid); CM Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray)

Ronaldo is always the focus when he’s on the field, and his impeccable form will be nearly impossible for Gala’s defense to handle. Even if Gala focus their attention on him, Ronaldo is a good enough player to feed his teammates, who have been shaky at times in front of goal. It’s up to him to put it on a plate if he is unable to score himself. Sneijder will be in charge of the Gala midfield and his form has returned since his move to Turkey. Expect him to create plenty of opportunities for Drogba and Yilmaz against his former employers. 

Who will advance: Real Madrid. This tie is interesting because Gala pack a bigger punch than many would think – Yilmaz is joint leading scorer, Drogba helped Chelsea to a Champions League crown last year, and Sneijder has returned after a bad ending to his spell at Inter. This team is not to be underestimated, and their road form has been good in Europe. If they can take the game to Real in Madrid, they will face a difficult task in front of the raucous fans in Turkey. Mourinho and Real have plenty of experience at this stage and will be well-prepared. I don’t expect this to be a non-contest but Real should make it to the semi-finals while avoiding the drama of their tie with Manchester United. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 4-2 Galatasaray


MALAGA v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

How MALAGA wins: Malaga continue their stellar defensive play in Europe and stifle Dortmund’s attacking triangle. They will need to play cautiously but they have proven their quality in winning their group and eliminating Porto. They take a lead in Spain and hold off a German onslaught in Dortmund to continue their magical run in their first Champions League appearance.

How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: Dortmund have been able to break down every team they have played in Europe, and although Malaga boast one of the continent’s best defensive records, Dortmund’s force of Lewandowski, Gotze, and Reus offer versatility that few defenses can stop. Dortmund take a patient approach and assure the tie can be won at home, limiting Malaga’s counter-attacking opportunities to rare long balls down the wings. 

Key players: FW Isco (Malaga); FW Robert Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund)

Isco has been fantastic for Malaga, and although he may leave for greener pastures in the summer, he cares for the club and its fans. He will be a threat, especially in Spain, and will be the player for the Spaniards to keep an eye on. Lewandowski is charged with leading his team’s line against the Malaga back line, and he will need to be on top of his game. Chances will not be often, and chances that he squandered against Shakhtar cannot be afforded in this tie. 

Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund are the better team and this is the stage where you rarely see the “cinderellas” move on. With the Bundesliga long gone, Dortmund are fully focused on their European football and are fully healthy, which is especially important during this time of the year. Malaga’s run has been hugely helpful for the club financially, and they will not back down easily. I think the red card to Porto in last round’s second leg played a large role in Malaga’s advancement, and while I believe they belong in the same conversation as the other clubs still alive, they are just a shade lacking in the attacking third. Dortmund should be able to create enough chances, especially at home, to battle their way through to the semi-finals. 

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Malaga

BAYERN MUNICH v JUVENTUS

How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern shake off their scare against Arsenal and bring the game that brought them a 9-2 victory over Hamburg at the weekend. They continue to be motivated by last year’s disappointment and methodically break down a stellar Juventus defense. They use their home advantage to build a lead to bring to Turin, where they hold off Juve in a classic encounter. 

How JUVENTUS wins: Juve continue their excellent defensive play and their offense continues to be a threat. They play cautiously in Munich but find a way to score away from home, then use their away goal to pile all of the pressure on Bayern. Superior midfield play and finishing take Juve through narrowly to the semis. 

Key players: LW Frank Ribery (Bayern Munich); CM Claudio Marchisio (Juventus)

All of Bayern’s attacking players will be in the spotlight but Ribery will be especially important. His pace is tough for any defense to handle and he can both unlock the wings to create scoring chances for himself while sending balls into the box for Gomez and Madzukic to get a head on. Marchisio has been one of the strongest links of Juve’s midfield, and he will be in charge of helping Pirlo control the middle third of the field. In a matchup with very little give, Marchisio must help Juve take advantage of their strength all season – possession in central midfield.

Who will advance: Juventus. Juventus look massively underrated by the odds in this tie (Bayern are 1/2 to go through) and have not conceded in five straight Champions League ties. After Bayern’s last performance in the Champions League, I am hardly confident in their abilities against a much tougher opponent. I must allow some slack for complacency due to the large lead, but I would have expected Bayern to handle an Arsenal squad that has lacked much conviction during this season away from the Emirates. I don't think this is much of an upset - Juventus are champions of Italy and have not lost a game in Europe this season (5 W, 3 D). This should be the tightest tie of the round, and both sides to be evenly prepared for it. I think Juve will just barely take it with their advantage of the second-leg being at home.

Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Bayern Munich

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