Overall everything went as planned - I expected to see all of these teams go through and with the exception of Man United, it had looked that way through the first leg. Am I surprised United were able to overturn the 2-0 deficit against Olympiakos? No, but I am surprised at the performance from the Greeks. United have been fragile at home all season and Olympiakos just sat back and let them do what they wished. As good as they were in Piraeus is how bad they were at Old Trafford, and United live on in the competition - winning it is their only hope of reappearing next year.
At this point, any teams can be drawn against one another, whereas teams were disqualified from playing each other in the last round if they were in the same group or from the same country. Only four countries have representatives left - Spain (3), England (2), Germany (2) and France (1). The matchups are as follows - the first team listed is home for the first leg:
Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea
Manchester United - Bayern Munich
Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Very interesting matchup - Atletico currently lead La Liga by one point over Barcelona. They have met three times already this season, with all three resulting in draws and just two goals being scored. Both teams are known for their offensive firepower, but these two sides are the top two defensive teams in La Liga. Given the stage, I wouldn't expect things to open up. Goals are going to be few and far between.
Although I have never been a huge fan of Victor Valdes, his season-ending injury puts Barcelona in a difficult position. Their defensive record is more due to their midfield than their defense, and teams that are able to counter Barcelona effectively and bypass that midfield are usually able to find the net. In their meetings this season, Atletico have pressed Barca in midfield, forcing them to play quickly in the final third, but allowing the Catalans a huge majority of the ball. It is generally a massive mistake to try and over-press Barca because they can and will punish you. In this case, I think Atletico can use that strategy and force defensive errors. Diego Simeone has done an amazing job with this team and they have conceded just 9 goals in 16 home matches in the league.
This is by far the toughest matchup to pick. I am going to pick Barcelona just because they have more experience at this stage, and with a better attacking force, they are more likely to make Atletico pay for a momentary lapse. It's really up in the air though - there has been nothing to separate the two sides this season. Valdes' injury leaves Barca even more vulnerable at the back, and against a tough Atletico defense, they could be in trouble if they don't leave the Camp Nou with a lead. I think they will, and their task will be to hold on at the Vicente Calderon.
Prediction: Barcelona 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid (1 – 0 H, 1 – 1 A)
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
They meet again. Real Madrid fell 4-3 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund in last year's semifinals, but they will get another shot at Jurgen Klopp's side, this time playing at home first. After leading the league for a good portion of the last few months, two successive defeats have made Real outsiders to claim the title. Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his Champions League-leading 13 goals this term against a side that allowed four goals over two games in the previous round. I've spoken quite a bit about my disdain for Bayern's behavior in the transfer market, and the brunt of their moves have been aimed at Dortmund. They simply aren't the same team. Their 5-4 aggregate victory over a weak Zenit side in the last round is an illustration of their regression from their elite sides of the past few years.
Although this matchup looks like a grudge match for Real Madrid, I think this will come a lot easier for them than it may appear. They were nervous last year at home after being battered 4-1 at Dortmund, and still managed to win 2-0 and nearly squeak through. This year's Dortmund team is not nearly as good, and this year's Real team should be going for broke in the Champions League after falling off the pace in La Liga. Dortmund are in second place in the Bundesliga, but their confidence has been sapped by the Robert Lewandowski saga. They haven't hit the level they played at last season, and they needed everything they had to get by Real at that point. Now, they won't have Lewandowski in the first leg because of suspension and the rest of the team, especially the defense, has been far less impressive. Real can put this tie to bed in at the Bernabeu and not have to worry about their traditionally poor record in Germany (although they did crush Schalke 6-1 in the last round). For Dortmund, they must show the form that got them to last year's final and must do so without one of their best players in the first leg. Heavy advantage for Madrid here.
Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund (3 – 0 H, 1 – 2 A)
PSG - Chelsea
This is the matchup the public was likely hoping for, as Laurent Blanc's upstart PSG side take on Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. There has been quite a bit said in the press about this matchup, as players from each club have ties to the other side. Eden Hazard has ties to PSG from his childhood, while Lucas Moura spoke highly of both him and Oscar to the press after the draw. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Jose Mourinho before, and the two won Serie A together and had a good relationship during their short spell together at Inter.
I expect Chelsea to play very defensively in the first match. Mourinho has exited the Champions League in the semi finals in each of the past three seasons, and in the last two, he has gotten caught playing too openly away from home. Last year's 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund put his Real side in a near-impossible position, and although they came close with a 2-0 win, it was hardly a classic Mourinho tie. He wants low-scoring, tight, defensive battles because he disciplines his teams in the final third. Chelsea have struggled at times away from home this season, and with PSG sporting a 42:5 goal tally at home in Ligue 1, it would be wise to avoid being too aggressive. PSG can be deadly in attack, but have yet to consistently dominate as an attacking force. However, with Zlatan in the team, goals can come from nothing. Chelsea does have the right players to match up with him - both Gary Cahill and John Terry are big, experienced center backs who play a physical brand of defense. But no player is a "good" matchup against Zlatan and he scored four goals against England in 2012 with Cahill in the lineup. It's best of luck to whoever is trying to stop him.
PSG and Chelsea are very similar sides and this tie will be decided by which forwards take their limited chances or by a moment of brilliance. There is world class talent across the board so anything is possible. Chelsea are at a clear disadvantage in the forward position and have struggled to find goals away from home. Their defense has been tested on this stage many times and they will be trying to get to the point where they can win the tie at Stamford Bridge. PSG must establish an advantage at home to get through to the next round. I think they're one year away from getting over this hurdle. They are not tested frequently enough in Ligue 1, with only Monaco somewhat close, and they are now without Falcao due to his knee injury. Chelsea should find themselves in the semifinals as long as they are not overrun in the first leg by PSG's prolific attacking force.
Prediction: PSG 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)
Manchester United - Bayern Munich
When Philipp Lahm said that he was "happy" with the draw against Manchester United, he was not talking about a big club matchup. United's shambolic season made them the most attractive draw, and they are now in the hands of the favorites to win the trophy. David Moyes has been under constant pressure in the media all season, and although most United fans still back him, most observers (such as myself) think that he is in over his head. They will also be without Robin Van Persie due to injury. Bayern are rolling through the Bundesliga and have dropped only six points all season, drawing three games and losing none while winning twenty-five. They are playing like the machine they were built to be, and have very rarely shown weakness.
I can never say impossible in the Champions League, but I can't see anything but a Bayern victory in this tie. United are anything but united, and even their victories fail to really encourage the idea of a turnaround in fortunes for Moyes. Their victory over Olympiakos was largely due to some individual brilliance from Van Persie and some poor tactics from an inexperienced opposing manager. They will have neither in this tie. Pep Guardiola has inherited some of the best teams and players of this generation, but he has won practically everything and has this Bayern team playing at a stunningly high level. Bayern will dominate both matches in this tie and I would be surprised to see them win the tie by fewer than three goals. They were exposed a bit by Hoffenheim last weekend in a 3-3 draw, but that was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season, and they were clearly looking ahead to this tie by resting starters. I'm going to be hoping United knock the Bavarians out - it would be a monumental upset. Not hoping too hard though.
Prediction: Manchester United 1 – 5 Bayern Munich (0 – 2 H, 1 – 3 A)
No comments:
Post a Comment