Why Brazil Will Win This Summer's World Cup

International soccer has undergone a major power shift over the last two decades. Whereas South American teams, primarily Brazil and Argentina, had dominated the trophy cases over the first fifty or so years of World Cup play, European teams have elevated themselves during the last four World Cups. Brazil or Argentina won the World Cup every other tournament from 1962-1994, with only West Germany keeping up with their levels of success. But France's 3-0 win over Brazil in the '98 Final has started a run where European teams have won three of the last four, while also occupying ten of the possible twelve top-3 places. A power shift has certainly taken place, and Spain, Germany, Italy, France and Holland all have high expectations for this year's version.

So why am I so convinced Brazil will win this summer's event? Here's three reasons:

1) History of Hosts' Success

There have been nineteen World Cups. Six hosts have become champions, one a runner-up (famously Brazil in 1950) and five have reached the semi-finals. France, Switzerland, Mexico (twice), Spain, the United States, and South Africa are the hosts who did not reach the semi-finals. Of those, only France and Spain have been major powers in the sport, and those World Cups were in 1938 and 1982, when neither was as strong as they are today. There has been a clear advantage to hosting the event, and while some people see the hosts as under more pressure for this tournament, I see it as a massive boost to their chances. If you watched the Confederations Cup Final between Brazil and Spain, you could hear the crowd for all ninety minutes and see how their energy boosted the home side.

2) Lack of European Success Outside of Europe

I would say that European sides have the highest pedigree after Brazil. Until 2010, a European team had never won a World Cup outside of Europe. Spain was the first team to accomplish that feat, defeating the Netherlands in the final. Brazil has won World Cups on South America, North America, Europe and Asia. They travel incredibly well and have always had one of the talented squads, while European teams have not been able to replicate their brilliance at home when they go abroad. In the Confederations Cup, the team that gave Brazil the most trouble was Uruguay, a South American team. They had little trouble against Spain or Italy, scoring seven goals in the two games.

3) Brazil is the Best Team in the World

In most sports, the rankings that are put out tell a close picture of how teams stack up against one another. I've ranted before about the FIFA rankings because they're utterly useless. Brazil didn't play in qualifiers because they were hosting the World Cup, so they were ranked around 10 for the last year or so. Complete joke. The goalie position is somewhat concerning, as Julio Cesar has not faced top level competition in the last year, but the squad in front of him is stacked. Marcelo and Thiago Silva will anchor the back while big midfielders like Fernandinho will provide support behind quick playmakers like Willian. Neymar, Hulk and Fred provide three different styles for defenses to deal with. The fact that players like Filipe Luis, Miranda, Lucas Moura and Robinho did not make this squad tells you of the talent level. It's unrivaled.

So who can beat Brazil? For me, there's two teams who have a shot.

Argentina -  Brazil's biggest rival has quite a bit of fire power themselves. In Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Argentina has the best attacking options in the tournament. They also will have Angel Di Maria on the wing - he was perhaps Real Madrid's best player in the Champions League Final. I have a lot of questions about their aging defense and goalie position, and I don't think their midfield can keep pace with Brazil's rampant, physical bunch. I give them the best chance to beat Brazil because you just never know what will happen when rivals face one another.

Uruguay - Yes, I don't like a team from Europe can knock off Brazil. Uruguay defeated Brazil in the 1950 World Cup Final to send the entire home crowd into a state of shock. You can bet many Brazilians remember that day, and would be devastated if they fell to their neighbors again. They were fantastic in 2010 and don't really have a weakness. They have a very balanced team and while they don't have as bunch depth in talent, they have elite players like Diego Godin and Luis Suarez (if he's healthy). And don't sleep on Cavani or Forlan either. I think their success will be somewhat tied to Suarez's health, but they gave Brazil all they could handle last year.

If Brazil loses, it is almost certainly going to be a self-capitulation. But stranger things have happened. My other random thoughts for this year's World Cup:

Spain and/or Germany will not make it through their group. Germany has an injury-depleted midfield (they have attacking midfielders but little depth in holding players) while Spain's aging midfield was poor down the stretch. Don't be shocked... Ivory Coast should win Group C. They're the epitome of "they'll do it next time" but with no Falcao for Colombia, they are the best team by some distance... England finishes in last in Group D. They match up poorly with Italy in their first game and then face Uruguay. Costa Rica is better than a lot of people think. England has questions all over the field... France could make a run to the semi finals. They have an easy group and face the second-weakest group in the round of 16. After 2010's debacle, the French are trying to erase bad memories... I like Belgium, but I don't see them going very far. They are young and didn't face very stiff competition in qualifying, other than from Croatia. If Eden Hazard takes over games like he did for Chelsea, they could be a not-so-secret sleeper, but they are more likely to hit a roadblock early.

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.

UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

Overall everything went as planned - I expected to see all of these teams go through and with the exception of Man United, it had looked that way through the first leg. Am I surprised United were able to overturn the 2-0 deficit against Olympiakos? No, but I am surprised at the performance from the Greeks. United have been fragile at home all season and Olympiakos just sat back and let them do what they wished. As good as they were in Piraeus is how bad they were at Old Trafford, and United live on in the competition - winning it is their only hope of reappearing next year.

At this point, any teams can be drawn against one another, whereas teams were disqualified from playing each other in the last round if they were in the same group or from the same country. Only four countries have representatives left - Spain (3), England (2), Germany (2) and France (1). The matchups are as follows - the first team listed is home for the first leg:

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea
Manchester United - Bayern Munich

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

Very interesting matchup - Atletico currently lead La Liga by one point over Barcelona. They have met three times already this season, with all three resulting in draws and just two goals being scored. Both teams are known for their offensive firepower, but these two sides are the top two defensive teams in La Liga. Given the stage, I wouldn't expect things to open up. Goals are going to be few and far between.

Although I have never been a huge fan of Victor Valdes, his season-ending injury puts Barcelona in a difficult position. Their defensive record is more due to their midfield than their defense, and teams that are able to counter Barcelona effectively and bypass that midfield are usually able to find the net. In their meetings this season, Atletico have pressed Barca in midfield, forcing them to play quickly in the final third, but allowing the Catalans a huge majority of the ball. It is generally a massive mistake to try and over-press Barca because they can and will punish you. In this case, I think Atletico can use that strategy and force defensive errors. Diego Simeone has done an amazing job with this team and they have conceded just 9 goals in 16 home matches in the league.

This is by far the toughest matchup to pick. I am going to pick Barcelona just because they have more experience at this stage, and with a better attacking force, they are more likely to make Atletico pay for a momentary lapse. It's really up in the air though - there has been nothing to separate the two sides this season. Valdes' injury leaves Barca even more vulnerable at the back, and against a tough Atletico defense, they could be in trouble if they don't leave the Camp Nou with a lead. I think they will, and their task will be to hold on at the Vicente Calderon.

Prediction: Barcelona 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid (1 – 0 H, 1 – 1 A)

Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund

They meet again. Real Madrid fell 4-3 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund in last year's semifinals, but they will get another shot at Jurgen Klopp's side, this time playing at home first. After leading the league for a good portion of the last few months, two successive defeats have made Real outsiders to claim the title. Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his Champions League-leading 13 goals this term against a side that allowed four goals over two games in the previous round. I've spoken quite a bit about my disdain for Bayern's behavior in the transfer market, and the brunt of their moves have been aimed at Dortmund. They simply aren't the same team. Their 5-4 aggregate victory over a weak Zenit side in the last round is an illustration of their regression from their elite sides of the past few years.

Although this matchup looks like a grudge match for Real Madrid, I think this will come a lot easier for them than it may appear. They were nervous last year at home after being battered 4-1 at Dortmund, and still managed to win 2-0 and nearly squeak through. This year's Dortmund team is not nearly as good, and this year's Real team should be going for broke in the Champions League after falling off the pace in La Liga. Dortmund are in second place in the Bundesliga, but their confidence has been sapped by the Robert Lewandowski saga. They haven't hit the level they played at last season, and they needed everything they had to get by Real at that point. Now, they won't have Lewandowski in the first leg because of suspension and the rest of the team, especially the defense, has been far less impressive. Real can put this tie to bed in at the Bernabeu and not have to worry about their traditionally poor record in Germany (although they did crush Schalke 6-1 in the last round). For Dortmund, they must show the form that got them to last year's final and must do so without one of their best players in the first leg. Heavy advantage for Madrid here.

Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund (3 – 0 H, 1 – 2 A)

PSG - Chelsea

This is the matchup the public was likely hoping for, as Laurent Blanc's upstart PSG side take on Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. There has been quite a bit said in the press about this matchup, as players from each club have ties to the other side. Eden Hazard has ties to PSG from his childhood, while Lucas Moura spoke highly of both him and Oscar to the press after the draw. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Jose Mourinho before, and the two won Serie A together and had a good relationship during their short spell together at Inter.

I expect Chelsea to play very defensively in the first match. Mourinho has exited the Champions League in the semi finals in each of the past three seasons, and in the last two, he has gotten caught playing too openly away from home. Last year's 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund put his Real side in a near-impossible position, and although they came close with a 2-0 win, it was hardly a classic Mourinho tie. He wants low-scoring, tight, defensive battles because he disciplines his teams in the final third. Chelsea have struggled at times away from home this season, and with PSG sporting a 42:5 goal tally at home in Ligue 1, it would be wise to avoid being too aggressive. PSG can be deadly in attack, but have yet to consistently dominate as an attacking force. However, with Zlatan in the team, goals can come from nothing. Chelsea does have the right players to match up with him - both Gary Cahill and John Terry are big, experienced center backs who play a physical brand of defense. But no player is a "good" matchup against Zlatan and he scored four goals against England in 2012 with Cahill in the lineup. It's best of luck to whoever is trying to stop him.

PSG and Chelsea are very similar sides and this tie will be decided by which forwards take their limited chances or by a moment of brilliance. There is world class talent across the board so anything is possible. Chelsea are at a clear disadvantage in the forward position and have struggled to find goals away from home. Their defense has been tested on this stage many times and they will be trying to get to the point where they can win the tie at Stamford Bridge. PSG must establish an advantage at home to get through to the next round. I think they're one year away from getting over this hurdle. They are not tested frequently enough in Ligue 1, with only Monaco somewhat close, and they are now without Falcao due to his knee injury. Chelsea should find themselves in the semifinals as long as they are not overrun in the first leg by PSG's prolific attacking force.

Prediction: PSG 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Manchester United - Bayern Munich

When Philipp Lahm said that he was "happy" with the draw against Manchester United, he was not talking about a big club matchup. United's shambolic season made them the most attractive draw, and they are now in the hands of the favorites to win the trophy. David Moyes has been under constant pressure in the media all season, and although most United fans still back him, most observers (such as myself) think that he is in over his head. They will also be without Robin Van Persie due to injury. Bayern are rolling through the Bundesliga and have dropped only six points all season, drawing three games and losing none while winning twenty-five. They are playing like the machine they were built to be, and have very rarely shown weakness.

I can never say impossible in the Champions League, but I can't see anything but a Bayern victory in this tie. United are anything but united, and even their victories fail to really encourage the idea of a turnaround in fortunes for Moyes. Their victory over Olympiakos was largely due to some individual brilliance from Van Persie and some poor tactics from an inexperienced opposing manager. They will have neither in this tie. Pep Guardiola has inherited some of the best teams and players of this generation, but he has won practically everything and has this Bayern team playing at a stunningly high level. Bayern will dominate both matches in this tie and I would be surprised to see them win the tie by fewer than three goals. They were exposed a bit by Hoffenheim last weekend in a 3-3 draw, but that was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season, and they were clearly looking ahead to this tie by resting starters. I'm going to be hoping United knock the Bavarians out - it would be a monumental upset. Not hoping too hard though.

Prediction: Manchester United 1 – 5 Bayern Munich (0 – 2 H, 1 – 3 A)