The story in the Brazilian media is the loss of Neymar due to a broken vertebrae. I think this loss should be downplayed. Neymar is Brazil's best attacker and most iconic player, but while Neymar is Brazil, Brazil is not Neymar. He has created the most chances of any player in the tournament thus far, but I do not see the jump down from his ability to Bernard or Willian, his likely replacements, as being steep. It also looks like Neymar's loss could provide Brazilian fans with a source of pride and motivation, as they have had little to be excited about thus far.
The big loss is the absence of Thiago Silva from Brazil's defense. Silva stabilizes the middle of that line and with the sometimes marauding David Luiz as his partner, he is the constant. He's also a fantastic defender and widely regarded as the best in the world. Dante is the likely replacement, and the Bayern man will have to be up to the task of stopping Thomas Muller.
Louis Van Gaal claimed he would have rather seen arch-rivals Belgium go through, and I believe him. Holland would much rather play a European team that they know after playing two CONCACAF sides and squeaking through on each occasion. It hasn't been easy in the knockout stage. Argentina made in five one-goal wins in a row and despite being called "ordinary" by Belgium manager Marc Wilmots, they are improving as this tournament moves forward.
Brazil – Germany
Joachim
Low moved Philipp Lahm back to his natural right back position, and
with Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield,
Germany dominated France
through the middle. I was disappointed with France’s lack of ambition
throughout the game but was equally impressed with Germany’s defensive
prowess. I thought their midfield might be a concern heading into this
tournament but with Schweinsteiger looking much
more healthy and Mats Hummels dominating the back line, this team has
been sound in the defensive third. They have had some close calls but
they look very difficult to break down, especially with Manuel Neuer in
goal.
Brazil
will be short their best attacking player but there are other options.
If he is healthy, Willian should replace Neymar and Brazil should keep
their same shape.
Willian created the second-most chances for Chelsea this past season behind Eden Hazard and plays with a similar style. The other option would be to bring in Paulinho and play with three
holding midfielders, but I think this is too defensive against a side
that is already going to be tough to break down. Brazil needs flair and
creativity. Dante will need to be sturdy and David
Luiz, who has been excellent thus far, must show discipline.
This
looks to me like the moment of truth for both of these sides. After
playing in cruise control through their first four matches, Brazil
finally appeared themselves against Colombia. I expect them to play with similar physicality
against the Germans. Germany has played better to this point, but will
face a raucous crowd in Belo Horizonte. Germany could be slightly better
right now, but I am still going with the hosts. Fireworks could be in store, but Brazil typically take part in tight, low-scoring semifinal.
Brazil, 1-0.
Netherlands – Argentina
The
Dutch were dominant but were nearly knocked out by a feisty Costa Rica
side. However, the difference in quality was obvious and their superior
fitness was evident in
the shootout. Tim Krul came in to stop two of the five penalties while
guessing correctly each time. Louis Van Gaal can never be underestimated
as a coach, and it was no surprise when he revealed that Krul had been
his plan all along. Argentina has not been
as clever, but their defense has been surprisingly stout en route to
back-to-back 1-0 wins over European opponents. It was a workman-type
performance against the Belgians, but Argentina never appeared
uncomfortable and Lionel Messi has continued his stellar
form into the knockout stages. Some of his long dribbling runs were
mesmerizing and his initial play led to Gonzalo Higuain’s winner. He has
lived up to his reputation as a one man show in this tournament.
I
don’t see anything changing for Argentina. The loss of Angel Di Maria
is important but hardly fatal – Argentina have plenty of attacking
players and it looks as though
Sergio Aguero will be fit again. Holland have been far less convincing
and their young defense will be in for a tough day. The Dutch defeated Uruguay 3-2 at this stage in 2010 and if there's a game in the semifinals with some scoring, I would expect it to be this one. If they are to go through, Robin Van Persie has to play significantly better. I don't think he will, and home advantage will rule again. Argentina, 2-1.
I'm sticking with my original guess at the beginning of the tournament - a Brazil-Argentina final. What a wild one that would be.
Trivia: Name the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer that isn’t from South America
or Europe. (Hint: He played in this summer’s World Cup)
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