Thursday, July 3, 2014

World Cup Round of 16 Recap, Reflections on USA and Quarterfinal Preview

Most exciting Round of 16 in my memory - that's for sure. Five of the eight matches went into extra time, two were decided on penalties, but somehow all eight of the group winners managed to go through. Defeat was cruelest on Chile, who hit the post in the last minute of extra time and then watched Gonzalo Jara's deciding penalty bounce off the inside of the right post and out. Eleven of the eighteen goals scored came in the 90th minute or later. Unbelievable drama.

I must say, as a USA fan, there was nothing left to give. It was heartbreaking to see the side go out given the chances they created in the final fifteen minutes, but there could be no argument over who the better side was. USA is making up a lot of ground in a short period of time - two tournaments in a row now they have gone past the group stage and three of their last four. They led Brazil 2-0 at the half in the 2009 Confederations Cup Final before going down 3-2, which came just after a 2-0 win over Euro 2008 champions Spain. These are moments that USA players and fans could not have dreamed of twenty or so years ago.

That being said, the gap is still there, and talent wise it is massive. The bottom line is that we had one forward who belonged in the team, and without Jozy, we were left with Dempsey, who is not a pure number 9, and a group of strikers who don't have a place on the top level of football. We brought on Chris Wondolowski, who is a poacher and good positioned forward, but no sort of elite talent. Belgium brought on Romelu Lukaku, a forward for Chelsea with a deadly combination of pace and strength. The future is very bright for the USA if their young players continue to develop and bring the sort of positive attitude to the game that we saw from Yedlin, Johnson and Green.

My last point about the USA is this whole notion of "we don't win because the talent plays other sports." That is completely false. There are 300 million people in this country; there are just under 17 million in Holland. Which country has an extremely decorated history in this sport? Football is not a game of talent and physicality - it comes from culture, time and experience. The USA team clearly has unity and fighting spirit - it is just missing the last bit of culture that comes from generations of experience at the top level.  Jurgen Klinsmann is bringing that bit of culture to this team and demanding it be more positive, and to stop giving too much "respect" to their opponents. This is exactly what is needed to bring the team from hopeful underdogs to a legitimate power. He is speeding up the process. By 2018, we should see a more comfortable USA, and hopefully we won't get such a demanding draw.

Anyway, we have three teams from South America, four from Europe, and one from good ol' CONCACAF. The South American sides were knocked out by other teams from their continent, and one more will go down this round after Brazil plays Colombia. I expect three of these four matchups to be absolute dynamite (guess the odd one out).

France Germany 

France stayed perfect by seeing off Nigeria 2-0 but were slightly off of the pace. They had the better of the play for nearly the whole game but their two goals were from poor Nigerian mistakes and they were tested at the other end several times. Germany have not played a complete game since their 4-0 thumping of Portugal, and were inches away from going behind to Algeria in the first half. This is truly a matchup of titans and should be a testy affair.

I mentioned before this tournament that I saw a weakness in Germany in their holding midfield. Joachim Low has tried to play Philipp Lahm in that role and it has simply not worked. Lahm is a much better right back than holding midfield player, and with Sami Khedira out of form and Schweinsteiger playing injured, there is an obvious deficiency. France have Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi waiting to gobble them up. France have a strong, physical team and are playing better at the moment. Although he did not score against Nigeria, Karim Benzema was a threat all game and should find his way onto the score sheet here. France, 2-0.

Brazil – Colombia

Colombia are the tournament’s new dark horse. Cast aside by many, including myself, after losing star striker Radamel Falcao in February, Colombia has won all four of their games so far, scored at least twice in each, and has the tournament’s leading scorer and rising young star, James Rodriguez. Their next challenge? Tournament hosts and favorites Brazil, who have failed to impress in any of their fixtures so far. They will try to break the World Cup streak of eight straight losses for a team that won a penalty shootout in its last match – the last to win was France in 1998.

I can’t go against the hosts yet. They have lost just twice to Colombia in twenty-five matches and haven’t lost at home in a competitive match to anyone since 1975. Colombia have impressed me, but I don’t think any of their opponents were as good as they were believed to be before the tournament started. Brazil haven’t played the stiffest competition either, but the home support has been able to help the side squeeze out results. This little Copa America is a tough test for the hosts, but if they can click into gear now, they will be ready to go on to win the tournament. Brazil, 2-1.

Argentina – Belgium

This is just a great matchup. Similar teams with pacey wingers and loads of world class attacking talent. Belgium and Argentina are each a perfect four-for-four so far in this tournament, and interestingly, each side has won each of their games by a one-goal margin. Argentina were just good enough to find the late winner against the Swiss, while Belgium held on for dear life in the final fifteen minutes against USA after dominating the first 105. Are they out of energy?

Argentina have had strong fan support throughout the tournament, contrasted by the home Brazilian fans rooting against them. Belgium have a very strong side and will be difficult to penetrate. I expect a low scoring game. Both of these sides have created plenty of chances but few finishing touches. Fitness is about even given that both sides just played extra time and had wrapped up their respective groups after two games. This could go either way, but I will give the edge to the Argentines in South America. Argentina, 1-0.

Netherlands – Costa Rica

The Dutch struggled through most of their game against Mexico before finding two goals in the last five minutes of the game to turn it around. The penalty was courtesy of a trademark Arjen Robben flop, but I guess that is to be expected. Can’t be too upset when it happens to a player like Marquez. Costa Rica have slowed down every game, but turned in a valiant performance with ten men against Greece, winning the penalty shootout 5-3.

While Colombia is the fashionable dark horse, Costa Rica are the Cinderella story, hoping to knock off a third European powerhouse. I would really like to see them go through but I bet against them because I think they’re out of gas. After playing over an hour with ten men in the last round, plus the deteriorating level of performances as this tournament has gone on, it’s difficult to see them going through here. The Dutch have more rest, more ability, and more experience. Louis Van Gaal’s troops should be in the semifinals. Netherlands, 3-0.

I am going to add a trivia question to my posts from now on. The answer will come in the next post, or Google it if you’re impatient. This post’s question is:

Who is the only team Brazil have played, and not beaten?

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