Rankings for this week:
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
4 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (7) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
7 (8) AC Milan (ITA)
8 (9) Juventus FC (ITA)
9 (10) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
10 (11) Chelsea FC (ENG)
11 (12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
12 (6) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
13 (13) SL Benfica (POR)
14 (18) Schalke 04 (GER)
15 (14) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
16 (15) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
17 (16) SSC Napoli (ITA)
18 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
19 (19) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
20 (20) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
21 (NR) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
22 (21) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
23 (22) SS Lazio (ITA)
24 (23) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
25 (25) APOEL FC (CYP)
Dropped from rankings: FC Basel (24)
Notes:
TOP TEN: Bayern Munich moves ahead of Manchester City this week after putting in twenty goals in three games, followed by advancing to the cup finals after defeating Borussia Monchengladbach on penalties. There's no doubt about Bayern's talent - the only concern is their away form. With the Champions League final in their own building, the Germans must feel great about their chances - if they can get there. A potential semi-final matchup with Real Madrid stands in the way.. Meanwhile, City have been far from impressive. Even a comeback victory over Chelsea should not quell the nerviness around the Etihad, as the performance was a far cry from their early season form. Nonetheless, it was the result they needed, and that is the key to winning a title - getting results out of games in which the team does not play well. The EPL title will go down to the wire between City and Manchester United.. Another great title race is going on in Serie A between AC Milan and Juventus. Juve are still undefeated with ten games left but trail Milan by four points. However, they gained some important momentum by knocking the Rossoneri out of the Coppa Italia. The teams have similar run-ins in terms of difficulty, so it will be up to Milan to hold their nerve.. Chelsea is back on the rise despite losing to City. The speed of their attacking buildups is dramatically faster, and key players like Torres and Lampard are starting to return to form. Even John Obi Mikel is playing well. Whether their performances had anything to do with tactics or not, the side looks rejuvenated under Roberto Di Matteo. Perhaps the old guard still has a few tricks left. A quarterfinal matchup with Benfica is favorable, but Barcelona could be waiting.
11-25: Tottenham have come crashing down to Earth after sitting in third for a good part of the season. After being passed by Arsenal this weekend, Spurs are now focusing on securing a UCL spot with just a five-point lead over Chelsea and a trip to the Bridge awaiting them on Saturday. A loss there would really be trouble for Tottenham.. Lyon are back after winning three straight following their UCL exit at the hands of APOEL. Sitting just four points behind third-placed Lille, Lyon have every chance to qualify for next year's Champions League. There is plenty of quality in the squad, which made their performances against the Cypriot champions all the more puzzling.. After seeing City and United crash out of the Europa League, Schalke are now favorites to take the title. The side have recovered very well from their early season slumber, and with Huntelaar having perhaps his best season to date, a trophy and a Champions League place could be destined for Gelsenkirchen.. Before the Rome derby, Lazio players and management described what an important game it would be in the race for third place, and the last UCL berth. Lazio defeated Roma 2-1, but subsequently dropped two straight games home to Bologna and away to Catania. Lazio have had a solid season, but Napoli and Udinese are only a point behind now. Should be a very tight close to the season in that part of Serie A as well.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Preview: Quarterfinals of 2011-2012 UEFA Champions League
The results of Friday's draw are as follows:
Quarterfinals (team listed first will be home in first leg):
APOEL (25) v Real Madrid (2)
Benfica (13) v Chelsea (11)
Marseille (NR) v Bayern Munich (4)
AC Milan (8) v Barcelona (1)
Semifinals:
Marseille/Bayern Munich v APOEL/Real Madrid
Benfica/Chelsea v AC Milan/Barcelona
DRAW WINNER: Real Madrid.
Clearly every club was hoping to draw APOEL, and Real won the lottery. The Spanish giants should have no trouble handling the Cypriot cinderella story, as an APOEL victory in the tie would undoubtedly be the biggest upset in the history of European football. As a bonus, Madrid avoided Barcelona in the semi-finals and would only face a potential meeting with them in the final. Madrid have a much better chance of defeating Barca in one game versus two, so this is the best possible scenario for Jose's men. However, they should be careful not to overlook a possible matchup with Bayern in the semis, who have scored a sparkling twenty goals in their last three matches and look inspired by the prospect of playing in the final at their home stadium. If Bayern maintain their current form and get by Marseille, it should be a cracking tie between them and Madrid.
Why doesn't APOEL have a chance? It seems unfair, as most people have doubted this squad for the entirety of a Champions League campaign that began in July. I have loved supporting this team through their run and I've given them a chance in many of their ties, but they have exceeded my expectations by quite a bit. This challenge is simply far too steep. The teams they have defeated so far in the competition are Skenderbeu, Slovan Bratislava, Wisla Krakow, Zenit, Porto, and Lyon. The last three are very big clubs who have enjoyed plenty of success in Europe over the past five years, proving that APOEL does have quality to hang with the big boys. But Real Madrid is a giant, and APOEL has not faced a team from England, Spain or Germany (the top three leagues) yet this season. You just really can't see them moving on here. I hope that this tie isn't too ugly because APOEL deserve better for their great campaign.
DARK HORSE: Chelsea.
A rejuvenated Chelsea have won four straight games since the firing of AVB - two FA Cup games to reach the semifinals, a 4-1 win over Napoli to overturn a 3-1 deficit, and a tight 1-0 win over Stoke in the Premier League. The whole squad has rapidly regained its form, with David Luiz and Gary Cahill looking strong in defense and Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba again looking potent in attack. Torres' two goals and two assists against Leicester was his best performance in a blue shirt. Chelsea face a strong, but far from unconquerable opponent in Benfica, then would face the winner of Barcelona-AC Milan in the semis. When Chelsea are at their best, they can play with any team in Europe, even Barcelona. The Blues have historically played well against Barcelona in the Champions League, and seem to have solved some of their early-season defensive woes under Roberto Di Matteo. The potential run of Benfica-Barcelona-Real Madrid to win the competition would be difficult, but in their current form, Chelsea are capable of causing a few upsets.
UPSET POTENTIAL: AC Milan.
The best matchup of the quarterfinals should be between holders Barcelona and reigning Italian champions AC Milan. Milan played Barca very tight this season - drawing 2-2 in Spain while falling 3-2 in Italy. Both games were very open and both sides had plenty of chances, giving hope to Milan for a possible upset. Milan are a very good team, and it is rare that a victory for them would be considered an upset. But such is Barcelona's European form this season, which has been absolutely lethal. With La Liga far out of sight, Barca is squarely focused on winning a second straight Champions League and a third in four years. Milan have the talent to cause the upset but they will have to play very, very well to do so. I think they are going to need at least six goals to beat Barcelona. Between Zlatan, Pato, Robinho, and Boateng, there are goals in the side - it should be very tight if they are on form.
WHO WILL ADVANCE
I see Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid advancing. I have attached my bracket below:
All favorites I know - but at this stage in the competition it is very rare to see many upsets. The big clubs are focused and eying the prize over any league or cup - there are no excuses for under-performance.
Lastly, I thought about starting to include the Europa League matchups since we are into the quarterfinals, but after seeing both Manchester clubs go out in the round of 16 along with Udinese, there simply aren't quality teams in the competition left that I know enough about. The only team left that I currently have included in my rankings is Schalke (at 18), so it seems like a bunch of mediocre teams. I will try and watch some and will definitely have a preview for the semis.
The UCL first legs are on March 27 and 28.
Quarterfinals (team listed first will be home in first leg):
APOEL (25) v Real Madrid (2)
Benfica (13) v Chelsea (11)
Marseille (NR) v Bayern Munich (4)
AC Milan (8) v Barcelona (1)
Semifinals:
Marseille/Bayern Munich v APOEL/Real Madrid
Benfica/Chelsea v AC Milan/Barcelona
DRAW WINNER: Real Madrid.
Clearly every club was hoping to draw APOEL, and Real won the lottery. The Spanish giants should have no trouble handling the Cypriot cinderella story, as an APOEL victory in the tie would undoubtedly be the biggest upset in the history of European football. As a bonus, Madrid avoided Barcelona in the semi-finals and would only face a potential meeting with them in the final. Madrid have a much better chance of defeating Barca in one game versus two, so this is the best possible scenario for Jose's men. However, they should be careful not to overlook a possible matchup with Bayern in the semis, who have scored a sparkling twenty goals in their last three matches and look inspired by the prospect of playing in the final at their home stadium. If Bayern maintain their current form and get by Marseille, it should be a cracking tie between them and Madrid.
Why doesn't APOEL have a chance? It seems unfair, as most people have doubted this squad for the entirety of a Champions League campaign that began in July. I have loved supporting this team through their run and I've given them a chance in many of their ties, but they have exceeded my expectations by quite a bit. This challenge is simply far too steep. The teams they have defeated so far in the competition are Skenderbeu, Slovan Bratislava, Wisla Krakow, Zenit, Porto, and Lyon. The last three are very big clubs who have enjoyed plenty of success in Europe over the past five years, proving that APOEL does have quality to hang with the big boys. But Real Madrid is a giant, and APOEL has not faced a team from England, Spain or Germany (the top three leagues) yet this season. You just really can't see them moving on here. I hope that this tie isn't too ugly because APOEL deserve better for their great campaign.
DARK HORSE: Chelsea.
A rejuvenated Chelsea have won four straight games since the firing of AVB - two FA Cup games to reach the semifinals, a 4-1 win over Napoli to overturn a 3-1 deficit, and a tight 1-0 win over Stoke in the Premier League. The whole squad has rapidly regained its form, with David Luiz and Gary Cahill looking strong in defense and Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba again looking potent in attack. Torres' two goals and two assists against Leicester was his best performance in a blue shirt. Chelsea face a strong, but far from unconquerable opponent in Benfica, then would face the winner of Barcelona-AC Milan in the semis. When Chelsea are at their best, they can play with any team in Europe, even Barcelona. The Blues have historically played well against Barcelona in the Champions League, and seem to have solved some of their early-season defensive woes under Roberto Di Matteo. The potential run of Benfica-Barcelona-Real Madrid to win the competition would be difficult, but in their current form, Chelsea are capable of causing a few upsets.
UPSET POTENTIAL: AC Milan.
The best matchup of the quarterfinals should be between holders Barcelona and reigning Italian champions AC Milan. Milan played Barca very tight this season - drawing 2-2 in Spain while falling 3-2 in Italy. Both games were very open and both sides had plenty of chances, giving hope to Milan for a possible upset. Milan are a very good team, and it is rare that a victory for them would be considered an upset. But such is Barcelona's European form this season, which has been absolutely lethal. With La Liga far out of sight, Barca is squarely focused on winning a second straight Champions League and a third in four years. Milan have the talent to cause the upset but they will have to play very, very well to do so. I think they are going to need at least six goals to beat Barcelona. Between Zlatan, Pato, Robinho, and Boateng, there are goals in the side - it should be very tight if they are on form.
WHO WILL ADVANCE
I see Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid advancing. I have attached my bracket below:
Lastly, I thought about starting to include the Europa League matchups since we are into the quarterfinals, but after seeing both Manchester clubs go out in the round of 16 along with Udinese, there simply aren't quality teams in the competition left that I know enough about. The only team left that I currently have included in my rankings is Schalke (at 18), so it seems like a bunch of mediocre teams. I will try and watch some and will definitely have a preview for the semis.
The UCL first legs are on March 27 and 28.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Champions League Knockout Round, Second Legs (Part 2)
Three of the four ties last week went as projected, as Arsenal came up just short against AC Milan, Benfica cruised through against Zenit, and Barcelona hammered Leverkusen. Lionel Messi's five goals were one of the most impressive achievements in European football history, but I have to give some love to APOEL for holding off Lyon on penalties to go through to the quarterfinals. I've enjoyed this story quite a bit, but Wednesday's performance against Lyon was by far APOEL's best this season. The team usually adapts a defensive, counterattacking style, but they came out and attacked Lyon, got their goal, and were far more threatening than a side boasting numerous internationals. Despite one of main striker Ailton's worst games of the campaign, the Cypriots could have ended this tie in regulation time with some of the chances they had. The club deserves lots of praise as their story will continue for at least another set of fixtures. I would also like to point out (not to take away from APOEL's win) how awful Lyon were in this tie - first wasting numerous opportunities to grab a second in France, while showing no quality whatsoever in Cyprus. The only player who performed worse than Ailton in Cyprus was Lisandro, who made Torres's current form look prolific with his performance. Lyon are currently seventh in Ligue 1 and there could be a string of changes at the club this summer if things don't change quickly.
This week's games are more interesting than last week because all of the ties are still in the balance. Bayern host Basel trailing to a goal from Valentin Stocker, Inter are a goal down to Marseille going home to the San Siro, CSKA head to Spain to face Real Madrid after a 1-1 draw in Russia, and Chelsea host Napoli after falling 3-1 in Italy. I expect Real Madrid to take care of business at home, as they should be able to put two or three past the Russians. They were unlucky to draw in Moscow, and given the weather conditions and the timing of CSKA's goal, it still wasn't a bad result. Madrid should be through without a sweat. Inter and Marseille are two of the most out-of-form big clubs in Europe, With the latter having lost four straight games in the league. These teams are both unpredictable at this point but I think Inter are starting to improve and had the better chances in France. I'm going to back Inter to go through but I wouldn't but a dime on it.
The tie between Basel and Bayern is much more interesting than many would have thought as Basel hold the edge. But more shockingly, Basel outplayed Bayern and had the better chances to score in Switzerland, including two shots that hit the post in the first half. Bayern's 7-1 thumping of Hoffenheim on Saturday shows they have plenty of attacking power to overturn a 1-0 deficit. But this game could go a variety of ways. Basel could easily be overwhelmed early by Bayern and find themselves chasing the tie because Bayern can so easily capitalize on mistakes. However, Basel have not lost an away European match yet this year, drawing in tough venues at Benfica and Manchester United, while winning in Romania against Otelul. Bayern is a whole different animal, but there could be a deathly silence in the Allianz Arena if Basel secure an early away goal. There is a ton of pressure on Bayern to progress given that this year's final is in Munich. I'm going to stick with the Germans to go through, but there definitely is upset potential here from in-form Basel.
Wednesday's game in London also has a variety of possibilities for outcomes. After firing Andre Villas-Boas, Chelsea seem to be back on track with two straight wins with two clean sheets against Birmingham and Stoke. Napoli hammered Cagliari 6-3 on Friday and have won six straight matches heading to London. Chelsea's first leg performance was not poor in terms of build-up and possession, but it was riddled with individual errors that gifted Napoli their three goals and could have led to a fourth or fifth. Napoli are very much in form and it is difficult to see them not scoring against a Chelsea team that has struggled, to say the least, in defense. As mentioned above, Chelsea do boast two straight clean sheets and have won 2-0, 3-0 and 5-0 at home in the Champions League this season. There is plenty of hope in the Blues camp to go through and it will take a very positive effort to knock Napoli out. I think the possibility for that performance is much greater than it could appear at this point, and after watching Arsenal nearly overturn their deficit against Italian opposition, Chelsea still have a good chance of coming through.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Bayern Munich (4) - FC Basel (24) : HOME WIN ; Bayern Munich to advance
Inter Milan (23) - Marseille (NR) : HOME WIN ; Inter Milan to advance
Chelsea (11) - Napoli (16) : HOME WIN ; Chelsea to advance
Real Madrid (2) - CSKA Moscow (20) : HOME WIN ; Real Madrid to advance
The draw for the quarterfinals and the potential matchups for the semi-finals takes place on Friday afternoon. Barcelona, AC Milan, Benfica and APOEL will be in the draw with the four teams that progress from this week's ties. This draw is open - meaning any team, regardless of group, country, etc. can be draw against each other. Barcelona are the clear team to avoid while APOEL will be considered the easy draw, but at this point in the competition, anything can happen. If Chelsea and Bayern do not overturn their respective deficits, there could be no English or German teams in the quarterfinals, giving Spain the chance to catch England for the top spot in the UEFA coefficient, and Italy to close the gap on Germany. It would be interesting. The Europa League draw is also on Friday so look out for that as well.
This week's games are more interesting than last week because all of the ties are still in the balance. Bayern host Basel trailing to a goal from Valentin Stocker, Inter are a goal down to Marseille going home to the San Siro, CSKA head to Spain to face Real Madrid after a 1-1 draw in Russia, and Chelsea host Napoli after falling 3-1 in Italy. I expect Real Madrid to take care of business at home, as they should be able to put two or three past the Russians. They were unlucky to draw in Moscow, and given the weather conditions and the timing of CSKA's goal, it still wasn't a bad result. Madrid should be through without a sweat. Inter and Marseille are two of the most out-of-form big clubs in Europe, With the latter having lost four straight games in the league. These teams are both unpredictable at this point but I think Inter are starting to improve and had the better chances in France. I'm going to back Inter to go through but I wouldn't but a dime on it.
The tie between Basel and Bayern is much more interesting than many would have thought as Basel hold the edge. But more shockingly, Basel outplayed Bayern and had the better chances to score in Switzerland, including two shots that hit the post in the first half. Bayern's 7-1 thumping of Hoffenheim on Saturday shows they have plenty of attacking power to overturn a 1-0 deficit. But this game could go a variety of ways. Basel could easily be overwhelmed early by Bayern and find themselves chasing the tie because Bayern can so easily capitalize on mistakes. However, Basel have not lost an away European match yet this year, drawing in tough venues at Benfica and Manchester United, while winning in Romania against Otelul. Bayern is a whole different animal, but there could be a deathly silence in the Allianz Arena if Basel secure an early away goal. There is a ton of pressure on Bayern to progress given that this year's final is in Munich. I'm going to stick with the Germans to go through, but there definitely is upset potential here from in-form Basel.
Wednesday's game in London also has a variety of possibilities for outcomes. After firing Andre Villas-Boas, Chelsea seem to be back on track with two straight wins with two clean sheets against Birmingham and Stoke. Napoli hammered Cagliari 6-3 on Friday and have won six straight matches heading to London. Chelsea's first leg performance was not poor in terms of build-up and possession, but it was riddled with individual errors that gifted Napoli their three goals and could have led to a fourth or fifth. Napoli are very much in form and it is difficult to see them not scoring against a Chelsea team that has struggled, to say the least, in defense. As mentioned above, Chelsea do boast two straight clean sheets and have won 2-0, 3-0 and 5-0 at home in the Champions League this season. There is plenty of hope in the Blues camp to go through and it will take a very positive effort to knock Napoli out. I think the possibility for that performance is much greater than it could appear at this point, and after watching Arsenal nearly overturn their deficit against Italian opposition, Chelsea still have a good chance of coming through.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Bayern Munich (4) - FC Basel (24) : HOME WIN ; Bayern Munich to advance
Inter Milan (23) - Marseille (NR) : HOME WIN ; Inter Milan to advance
Chelsea (11) - Napoli (16) : HOME WIN ; Chelsea to advance
Real Madrid (2) - CSKA Moscow (20) : HOME WIN ; Real Madrid to advance
The draw for the quarterfinals and the potential matchups for the semi-finals takes place on Friday afternoon. Barcelona, AC Milan, Benfica and APOEL will be in the draw with the four teams that progress from this week's ties. This draw is open - meaning any team, regardless of group, country, etc. can be draw against each other. Barcelona are the clear team to avoid while APOEL will be considered the easy draw, but at this point in the competition, anything can happen. If Chelsea and Bayern do not overturn their respective deficits, there could be no English or German teams in the quarterfinals, giving Spain the chance to catch England for the top spot in the UEFA coefficient, and Italy to close the gap on Germany. It would be interesting. The Europa League draw is also on Friday so look out for that as well.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Top 25 - March 9
Not much has changed but many of the top sides are really struggling. French football is taking a beating this year. Here is this week's Top 25:
Format: Rank (Previous) Team (Country)
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (6) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
7 (7) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
8 (9) AC Milan (ITA)
9 (8) Juventus FC (ITA)
10 (10) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (11) Chelsea FC (ENG)
12 (14) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (13) SL Benfica (POR)
14 (15) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
15 (12) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (24) SSC Napoli (ITA)
17 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (16) Schalke 04 (GER)
19 (23) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
20 (21) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
21 (22) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
22 (NR) SS Lazio (ITA)
23 (19) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
24 (25) FC Basel (SWI)
25 (NR) APOEL FC (CYP)
Dropped from Rankings: Olympique de Marseille (18), Olympique Lyon (20)
Notes:
TOP TEN: AC Milan moves in front of Juventus after they took top spot from the Old Lady in Serie A. Despite squeaking through their tie against Arsenal, this team has the talent to win the league and maybe even the Champions League if its stars decide to show up, which did not happen at the Emirates. Juventus is still undefeated in the league (13 wins, 13 draws) but has lacked the cutting edge to grind out wins against some of the smaller clubs in the league. With twelve games left, Juve could avoid defeat for the remainder of the season as its toughest games are at their home stadium. However, they need to turn draws into wins or Milan will take its second straight Scudetto.. Strangely, the only team in the top ten to win a match in Europe over the past three weeks was Barcelona. As Lionel Messi's five-goal game showed, the Catalans have some distance between them and the rest of Europe. Real Madrid and Manchester City have come close to reaching their level, but haven't obtained the same kind of results in Europe. Barcelona is set to roll through the Champions League this year, and it would really be a huge upset if they lost, to anyone.. This Manchester United team is unlike any I have ever seen. At times, they show their vintage ability to grab results despite being outplayed (such as last week's win at Tottenham), but they have also lost at home this season to Blackburn, Ajax, and Athletic Bilbao. Sitting two points behind City is not a bad position, but there cannot possibly be the same type of belief in the United camp as in years past.
11-25: When I began these rankings, I considered the French clubs to be a cluster of teams having around the same type of quality. That has certainly cleared up, as Lyon and Marseille have tanked, while PSG and Montpellier have continued to shine. Olivier Giroud has continued his scoring form, even scoring for France against Germany in a friendly. Lille is still hanging in there, but is not near the level of last year, and the inevitable departure of Edin Hazard this summer will change the club.. As of today, two of the Champions League knockout round's largest minnows in history are still in the competition. APOEL ko'd Lyon on March 7 and Basel can do the same to Bayern on the 13th. APOEL's magical run has earned them a place among the top teams in Europe, and with Basel's stellar form continuing, who's to say they can't join them in the quarterfinals. Both teams have shown the ability to attack the big boys with quality football, not simply sit back and repel waves of attacks.. This could be Inter's last week in the rankings. The team looks dreadful, Rainieri is likely on the way out, and the team is down to 7th in the table. The talent hasn't gone anywhere - there is just no confidence or motivation. Bowing out to Marseille in the Champions League on March 13 could finally be the end for the manager.. Arsenal have taken a big step to secure fourth place over Chelsea by holding a three point advantage with eleven games to go. Arsenal's performances have improved greatly, and the results are beginning to come around. Chelsea still have a long ways to go in finding stability, having just fired their manager, while winning just four of their last twelve matches.
Format: Rank (Previous) Team (Country)
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (6) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
7 (7) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
8 (9) AC Milan (ITA)
9 (8) Juventus FC (ITA)
10 (10) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (11) Chelsea FC (ENG)
12 (14) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (13) SL Benfica (POR)
14 (15) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
15 (12) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (24) SSC Napoli (ITA)
17 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (16) Schalke 04 (GER)
19 (23) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
20 (21) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
21 (22) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
22 (NR) SS Lazio (ITA)
23 (19) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
24 (25) FC Basel (SWI)
25 (NR) APOEL FC (CYP)
Dropped from Rankings: Olympique de Marseille (18), Olympique Lyon (20)
Notes:
TOP TEN: AC Milan moves in front of Juventus after they took top spot from the Old Lady in Serie A. Despite squeaking through their tie against Arsenal, this team has the talent to win the league and maybe even the Champions League if its stars decide to show up, which did not happen at the Emirates. Juventus is still undefeated in the league (13 wins, 13 draws) but has lacked the cutting edge to grind out wins against some of the smaller clubs in the league. With twelve games left, Juve could avoid defeat for the remainder of the season as its toughest games are at their home stadium. However, they need to turn draws into wins or Milan will take its second straight Scudetto.. Strangely, the only team in the top ten to win a match in Europe over the past three weeks was Barcelona. As Lionel Messi's five-goal game showed, the Catalans have some distance between them and the rest of Europe. Real Madrid and Manchester City have come close to reaching their level, but haven't obtained the same kind of results in Europe. Barcelona is set to roll through the Champions League this year, and it would really be a huge upset if they lost, to anyone.. This Manchester United team is unlike any I have ever seen. At times, they show their vintage ability to grab results despite being outplayed (such as last week's win at Tottenham), but they have also lost at home this season to Blackburn, Ajax, and Athletic Bilbao. Sitting two points behind City is not a bad position, but there cannot possibly be the same type of belief in the United camp as in years past.
11-25: When I began these rankings, I considered the French clubs to be a cluster of teams having around the same type of quality. That has certainly cleared up, as Lyon and Marseille have tanked, while PSG and Montpellier have continued to shine. Olivier Giroud has continued his scoring form, even scoring for France against Germany in a friendly. Lille is still hanging in there, but is not near the level of last year, and the inevitable departure of Edin Hazard this summer will change the club.. As of today, two of the Champions League knockout round's largest minnows in history are still in the competition. APOEL ko'd Lyon on March 7 and Basel can do the same to Bayern on the 13th. APOEL's magical run has earned them a place among the top teams in Europe, and with Basel's stellar form continuing, who's to say they can't join them in the quarterfinals. Both teams have shown the ability to attack the big boys with quality football, not simply sit back and repel waves of attacks.. This could be Inter's last week in the rankings. The team looks dreadful, Rainieri is likely on the way out, and the team is down to 7th in the table. The talent hasn't gone anywhere - there is just no confidence or motivation. Bowing out to Marseille in the Champions League on March 13 could finally be the end for the manager.. Arsenal have taken a big step to secure fourth place over Chelsea by holding a three point advantage with eleven games to go. Arsenal's performances have improved greatly, and the results are beginning to come around. Chelsea still have a long ways to go in finding stability, having just fired their manager, while winning just four of their last twelve matches.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Saying Goodbye to AVB; Champions League Knockout Round, Second Legs (Part 1)
Sad. That is my feeling towards Andre Villas-Boas after Chelsea fired him following Saturday's 1-0 loss to West Brom. I knew it was coming - the performance was dreadful and things had gotten successively worse for AVB, especially over the past two weeks. From the beginning, it was a huge gamble for Chelsea to take, but I had thought he would be the best man for the job. However, the one quality that AVB really needed for the job was the one he lacked - the ability to manage the emotions of his players. At Porto, this was easy - most of his players were young, there are no glaring superstars (other than perhaps Hulk) and most of all, the team didn't lose a single game. Winning solves everything at any sport on any level. At Chelsea, AVB was faced with experienced, older professionals who were not keen on being told what to do by someone their own age (or slightly older). And when the results began to suffer, the problems quickly mounted, leading to his departure.
This isn't to say AVB's exit was entirely, or even mostly, his own fault. With the Chelsea job comes a lot of stress and expectation, and when those expectations are not met, the manager is quickly scrutinized. I think much of the blame falls on the players at Chelsea, because they refused to get behind the manager when he so desperately needed it. There have been too many simple mistakes made by players in the squad that have cost the team dearly, mistakes that had nothing to do with the manager. While he has improved throughout the season, David Luiz has made multiple, fundamental errors that have led to goals for the opposition, most glaringly Napoli's third goal in Italy. Raul Meireles has been consistently awful, showing none of his creative or finishing ability from his Liverpool days. Florent Malouda is a shadow of his former quality, lacking in pace and creativity. Fernando Torres has clearly been out of form for most of the season. John Terry's slip against Arsenal cost Chelsea that game. What was AVB supposed to do with these players? Make the decisions for Luiz? Get JT better boots? I feel there were many results that did not go Chelsea's way that had nothing to do with AVB's tactics or team selection.
In the end, AVB's appointment was a complete failure, and I'm just sad to see it end the way it did. I think Andre was honest the whole time - three weeks ago he said his job was safe. But after the results and news items of the past few weeks, he remarked he was "worried" for his job. After Saturday's loss to West Brom, it was easy to see the axe fall. I hope AVB gets a job at a club that is big, but not one of the huge clubs - a club like Leverkusen, or Lyon, or Lazio. He needs to leave England and move to a team that will not have the expectations of a Chelsea, but where he will have the opportunity to build a team. Where will Chelsea go now? I've always thought Mourinho would return, and the three favorites appear to be Mourinho, Guardiola, and Benitez. Whoever Chelsea hires will be a big name with a great deal of experience in European football.
On another note, this week also marks the first set of Champions League second legs. Barcelona and AC Milan should be in cruise control, while Lyon lead APOEL after a 1-0 win in France, and Zenit protect a 3-2 lead heading to Portugal. I think Arsenal will win the tie at the Emirates, but will not be able to overturn the four-goal deficit. Arsenal are in far better form now than for the first leg, but AC Milan are too experienced to allow Arsenal to go through. Barcelona should also go through easily, but there should be goals in the game for both sides. It will be very difficult for Leverkusen to score three times in Spain, and Barca should be able to coast.
Lyon head to Cyprus to face APOEL after dominating the first leg, but only securing a one-goal advantage. Before this tie, I believed APOEL's best chance of going through was to pack it in for the first leg, and attempt to win the tie in Cyprus. This is exactly what they have done - and while they are trailing, the deficit is far from insurmountable. I have backed this team throughout this year's Champions League, but this is still a difficult task. Lyon could have had three or four in France, and if they are able to score early, it will be very difficult for APOEL to go through. APOEL must come out and feed off their home crowd. I think the Cypriots have a chance, but Lyon's experience will carry them through to the next round.
Zenit and Benfica face off in Lisbon with the Russians holding a slight 3-2 advantage. The two away goals were huge for Benfica, but the result was rather harsh on Zenit. They had the better chances throughout the game, and both of Benfica's goals were the result of rather egregious goalkeeping errors. Benfica have also suffered a dip in form, taking just one point from their last three league games following the loss in Russia. That being said, I like Benfica to take care of this tie and move through. They are a fantastic side at home, and no longer have to contend with the freezing climate of St. Petersburg. Zenit have struggled in the Champions League away from home, drawing in Ukraine and Portugal and losing in Cyprus. Benfica have enough firepower to knock the Russians out in what should be a closely contested affair.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Arsenal (14) - AC Milan (9) : HOME WIN ; AC Milan to advance
Benfica (13) - Zenit St. Petersburg (12) : HOME WIN ; Benfica to advance
APOEL (NR) - Lyon (20) : DRAW ; Lyon to advance
Barcelona (1) - Bayer Leverkusen (NR) : HOME WIN ; Barcelona to advance
This isn't to say AVB's exit was entirely, or even mostly, his own fault. With the Chelsea job comes a lot of stress and expectation, and when those expectations are not met, the manager is quickly scrutinized. I think much of the blame falls on the players at Chelsea, because they refused to get behind the manager when he so desperately needed it. There have been too many simple mistakes made by players in the squad that have cost the team dearly, mistakes that had nothing to do with the manager. While he has improved throughout the season, David Luiz has made multiple, fundamental errors that have led to goals for the opposition, most glaringly Napoli's third goal in Italy. Raul Meireles has been consistently awful, showing none of his creative or finishing ability from his Liverpool days. Florent Malouda is a shadow of his former quality, lacking in pace and creativity. Fernando Torres has clearly been out of form for most of the season. John Terry's slip against Arsenal cost Chelsea that game. What was AVB supposed to do with these players? Make the decisions for Luiz? Get JT better boots? I feel there were many results that did not go Chelsea's way that had nothing to do with AVB's tactics or team selection.
In the end, AVB's appointment was a complete failure, and I'm just sad to see it end the way it did. I think Andre was honest the whole time - three weeks ago he said his job was safe. But after the results and news items of the past few weeks, he remarked he was "worried" for his job. After Saturday's loss to West Brom, it was easy to see the axe fall. I hope AVB gets a job at a club that is big, but not one of the huge clubs - a club like Leverkusen, or Lyon, or Lazio. He needs to leave England and move to a team that will not have the expectations of a Chelsea, but where he will have the opportunity to build a team. Where will Chelsea go now? I've always thought Mourinho would return, and the three favorites appear to be Mourinho, Guardiola, and Benitez. Whoever Chelsea hires will be a big name with a great deal of experience in European football.
On another note, this week also marks the first set of Champions League second legs. Barcelona and AC Milan should be in cruise control, while Lyon lead APOEL after a 1-0 win in France, and Zenit protect a 3-2 lead heading to Portugal. I think Arsenal will win the tie at the Emirates, but will not be able to overturn the four-goal deficit. Arsenal are in far better form now than for the first leg, but AC Milan are too experienced to allow Arsenal to go through. Barcelona should also go through easily, but there should be goals in the game for both sides. It will be very difficult for Leverkusen to score three times in Spain, and Barca should be able to coast.
Lyon head to Cyprus to face APOEL after dominating the first leg, but only securing a one-goal advantage. Before this tie, I believed APOEL's best chance of going through was to pack it in for the first leg, and attempt to win the tie in Cyprus. This is exactly what they have done - and while they are trailing, the deficit is far from insurmountable. I have backed this team throughout this year's Champions League, but this is still a difficult task. Lyon could have had three or four in France, and if they are able to score early, it will be very difficult for APOEL to go through. APOEL must come out and feed off their home crowd. I think the Cypriots have a chance, but Lyon's experience will carry them through to the next round.
Zenit and Benfica face off in Lisbon with the Russians holding a slight 3-2 advantage. The two away goals were huge for Benfica, but the result was rather harsh on Zenit. They had the better chances throughout the game, and both of Benfica's goals were the result of rather egregious goalkeeping errors. Benfica have also suffered a dip in form, taking just one point from their last three league games following the loss in Russia. That being said, I like Benfica to take care of this tie and move through. They are a fantastic side at home, and no longer have to contend with the freezing climate of St. Petersburg. Zenit have struggled in the Champions League away from home, drawing in Ukraine and Portugal and losing in Cyprus. Benfica have enough firepower to knock the Russians out in what should be a closely contested affair.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Arsenal (14) - AC Milan (9) : HOME WIN ; AC Milan to advance
Benfica (13) - Zenit St. Petersburg (12) : HOME WIN ; Benfica to advance
APOEL (NR) - Lyon (20) : DRAW ; Lyon to advance
Barcelona (1) - Bayer Leverkusen (NR) : HOME WIN ; Barcelona to advance
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