Saturday, June 28, 2014

WORLD CUP - Group Stage Roundup and Knockout Stage Preview



The group stages brought considerably more excitement than anyone expected. International football is usually predicated around playing “not-to-lose” instead of free-flowing attacking football seen more commonly on the club level. It was certainly fun to watch.  Four teams were perfect, while three picked up zero points. Fairly balanced overall, I would say. 

South America dominated and CONCACAF was very strong, while Asia failed to win a game and Europe struggled. Playing at home is still as important as ever. I still see Brazil winning, but they will have to improve.

Group A

I expected Brazil and Mexico to advance, and the results in this group went as I would have expected. Croatia is a better team than Mexico, but I’ve spoken in lengths about European struggles in South America, and with a roaring pro-Mexico crowd behind them, the Mexicans swept aside their more esteemed opponents in fifteen minutes with a three goal spurt. The 0-0 result between the advancing sides was not as surprising to me – Mexico had been solid defensively throughout qualifying and they had a good showing from their fans, which took a little bit of the swagger out of Brazil’s sails. Their goalkeeper Ochoa also played the game of his life and probably earned himself a big paycheck at the club level. 

Croatia were good, but just not good enough in their pivotal game. They were unlucky against Brazil on the penalty call, but already had the fortune of collecting an own goal in the first half. Cameroon was just plain ugly. They looked overmatched on paper to begin with, but the fighting between players and the constant distraction of Samuel Eto’o just turned their campaign into a complete disaster. They exit the World Cup with no points and a -8 goal differential, worst in the tournament. It’s time to blow up the team and start over. 

Group B

Well, well. Mighty Spain was bounced after just two games, officially ending the Spain-Barcelona era of dominance. I think it was ended by Brazil last summer after they hammered the Spanish 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final, but there are no questions about that now. Spain were slow and sloppy throughout their first two matches, and they played two very opportunistic opponents who took full advantage. The FA should not fire Del Bosque, but this team must use more pace and less finesse to return to the top. Rumors of Xavi moving to the UAE from Barcelona this summer say it all for Spain.

Meanwhile, the Dutch won all three of their games and looked very dangerous in doing so. Goals came from all sides and Louis Van Gaal’s youngsters even defended quite well against Chile. Mexico will be a tough test, but Holland looks on top of their game at the moment. Chile also impressed, as their forwards ran circles around Australia and Spain. It doesn’t look good as they must play Brazil, but Chile will know their opponents and would probably prefer to counter attack anyway. I expect a close match. Australia played generally well, and Tim Cahill probably has the goal of the tournament at this point, but unfortunately for the Socceroos, it didn’t even earn them a point. They were always going to be up against it with the quality of opposition in this group, and with a young team, I expect bright things for Australia in the future. 

Group C

Colombia legitimately “wow-ed” me in the group stage. They crushed Greece, gritted out a win against Ivory Coast and blew out Japan for a +7 goal differential in what I thought was a pretty evenly matched group. This team proved it is not the Falcao show. They have made a ton of progress over the last four years. Greece qualified in the only way they know how to – look absolutely brutal but come up with a goal or two in the vital moments to sneak through. They certainly aren’t bad, but their only two goals came on a slip and a penalty, and while I’m aware they were down to ten men against Japan, they looked like they were headed straight home after two games. As it is, they face an inexperienced Costa Rica team that plays mostly on the counter. Can anybody give me a case that the result of that game isn’t 0-0?

Ivory Coast has fooled me for the last time. I won’t pick them again until I see tangible results on the intercontinental level. They looked good against Japan despite getting off to a slow start, but were just not good enough against a less-talented but harder working Colombia side, and were just off the pace against Greece. The only reason they won’t be looked down upon more is because in their same group, Japan was the bigger disappointment. They failed to hold a lead in their first game, only came close to breaking down ten-man Greece once, and were completely outclassed against Colombia. I thought this was the best team in Asia and maybe they are, but that really shows how far AFC is behind the rest of the world. One point from your “best” team is a bad sign, and every team from AFC is out of the competition already, with no wins between the four sides. 

Group D

Costa Rica are the current darlings of the tournament, written off as the “fourth” team in the group but playing very well and winning the group with two wins and a draw. I thought they were better than people gave them credit for but certainly not good enough to beat two of the best sides in the world. They’re not going to take anyone by surprise at this point but it’s been a great showing so far from the Costa Ricans. 

Uruguay’s success is tied to Luis Suarez in my mind, and with him suspended, I would consider their chances pretty much finished. There’s something mentally wrong with Suarez, and it’s a shame because he’s one of the top strikers in the world. A four-month ban is just, and even though it may get reduced, he has forever soured his reputation in the international community. It’s also very strange that he actually has bit someone on a soccer field at least three times (I would guess that’s happened more before he was famous). Italy were unlucky but were also poor against Costa Rica and failed to score outside of their first match. They were very disappointing for me as I expected Balotelli to play better, but following Bryan Ruiz’s goal I never saw the same flow from Italy’s midfield. It’s a puzzling exit but certainly not a disgraceful one. This team will be able to challenge for the trophy in the next European tournament. 

England is just too typical. I said they would come in last and come in last they did, despite not playing all that badly. If I can guess the scores of their final two games correctly, they are too predictable, and their media reaction was standard as well. It’s just funny how hyped up the team was in a group where they were overmatched. I feel bad for Steven Gerrard just because he lost the Premier League essentially on his slip against Chelsea and they were knocked out of the World Cup on that bizarre header he hit straight to Suarez. But England earns no sympathy from me. The results just don’t come. 

Group E

France produced two spectacular performances against Honduras and Switzerland to rave reviews. Their performance against Ecuador was more down-to-Earth, but France have still looked like one of the strongest teams thus far. They’ve attacked with pace and shown the ability to take over games. They also have a ton of depth. A possible Germany-France matchup could happen in the quarterfinals – that would be a must watch. The Swiss are through too despite getting torn apart by France, but the Swiss have quite a bit of talent, and Xherdan Shiqiri’s hat trick against Honduras was world class. That France game really puzzled me. This is a good team, and a tricky one to play against, but I’m not sure they have it in them to pull a major upset. 

Ecuador are South America’s only early exit, which speaks more of the quality of the continent’s teams than Ecuador’s faults. After the tragic death of Christian Benitez last year, it was good for the game to see Ecuador make it to the World Cup. Unfortunately, Ecuador was the least talented South American side to make it and have traditionally been much better at home, where they play at a very high altitude, versus abroad. They were still close, but that last-minute defeat to the Swiss was the killer. Honduras are simply not on the same level as the other teams in the group. They did very well to make it this far, but were simply overmatched in each game. The three losses are certainly disappointing, but not unexpected for the team. The goal for Costly against Ecuador was a nice moment. 

Group F

Argentina won all three of their games in Group F, but didn’t particularly impress in any of them. They had the weakest opponents of any of the big favorites, and won each game by a single goal. The game against Iran was particularly troubling – Iran had two great chances to score and a pretty strong penalty shout in the second half. The good news is that Messi seems to have recovered the form he lost over the last few months with Barcelona. He has been carrying the team, and the rest of the squad will have to show up if they’re going to make a deep run. Nigeria were pretty solid. They were slow and boring against Iran, but played very well against Bosnia and hit Argentina well on the counter. This team has been improving since the tournament started, and their defense produced two clean sheets. 

Bosnia were a disappointment to me – teams rarely do well on their first appearance in the World Cup, but Bosnia are loaded and should have done better. They made mistakes and were punished each time, which does not always happen, but at this level the mistakes must be eliminated. I would chalk it up mostly to inexperience, especially on the managerial level. Bosnia made it to Brazil because they played attacking football with two strikers, Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic. They started their first two games with just Dzeko, and he was noticeably stranded. In their third game they started both players and scored three goals. They will learn and continue to improve. Iran was simply happy to be in the finals, but they were actually rather impressive. They played good defense and really could have beaten Argentina. Unlucky more than poor execution from the Iranians. 

Group G

Germany stuck up for Europe and as coach Joachim Low stated, dominated. I thought they were poor against Ghana in the second half, but were dominant in their other two matches. They certainly showed up and while they do have weaknesses, this team is going to be a tough out. USA were also impressive, and even more so when you consider they lost striker Jozy Altidore twenty minutes into their first match, and their most influential player, Michael Bradley, has yet to play a good game. The last-minute concession against Portugal was devastating, but this team deserves to be through and has a dangerous feel about it. 

Ghana unraveled, with Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince-Boateng sent home before the team’s final game. They were still a goal away at one point from going through, but it never came. They were again Africa’s best hope for a deep run but came up short at the first hurdle. Portugal produced the tournament’s worst performance against Germany in their 4-0 defeat, but recovered pretty well and collected four points from their last two matches. That hole was always going to be too steep unless they beat the USA, but I did not expect Portugal to show up after the first game. Ronaldo was poor. Other than his majestic cross to Varela to steal a point, he was sloppy and wasteful. His one goal was handed to him on a silver platter and he didn’t come close to scoring one otherwise. I don’t blame him for their exit, but it is impossible to argue against Messi’s ability to carry Argentina, while Ronaldo could not carry Portugal. 

Group H

Belgium were the last of the four perfect teams, and may have also been the least impressive. They were very strong defensively, having majority possession in all of their matches, while conceding just one goal on a penalty. They did score just four goals and struggled to break down any of their three opponents. They are very talented but inexperienced at this level, and they will need to play much better in the knockout round. Algeria were a nice surprise – they were timid in 2010 and played much more freely this time around. Sofiane Feghouli has been the star as Algeria scored six times versus zero in 2010. It’s unfortunate that they will have to play Germany, but Algeria can be very proud of their showing so far, and they looked like they have enjoyed the ride. From the first game, they looked like a much more confident team.

If you watched the Russia – South Korea game, you’d understand why both teams are out. Russia could not create any offense and goalie Igor Akinfeev, who had been linked to big clubs in Europe in the past, baffled the minds of fans. I have never seen him or any other goalie make so many errors in such a short series of matches. I don’t blame him alone for their exit but he is directly to blame for two of the three goals Russia conceded, which in essence cost them four points. Without Alan Dzagoev starting, Russia were barely a threat going forward and that’s what really did them in. South Korea have been in decline since their sketchy run to the semi-final in 2002, but this was much worse than expected. They were overmatched in each game and showed very little creativity. There aren’t many good points to take from this World Cup for the Koreans. 

My brief thoughts on the round of 16: 

Brazil : Chile – I have the hosts winning this tournament, and while Chile have played well thus far, this task should be too great for them. Brazil have yet to play a complete game thus far, but have plenty of firepower to score on a disciplined opponent. Brazil, 2-0. 

Colombia : Uruguay – Uruguay’s success seems to correlate to Luis Suarez’s performances, and his ban will really hurt his team. Colombia have been superb thus far and I don’t see them tripping up here. Colombia, 3-1. 

Netherlands : Mexico – This game should be very close. The Dutch are a better side but Mexico have played very well and will have a strong showing from their fans. Could be quite a bit of fireworks in this one. Netherlands, 2-1. 

Costa Rica : Greece – If this game has more than one goal in it, I would be surprised. In fact, I don’t expect any goals at all. Costa Rica has played counterattacking football while Greece pretty much packs the back. This game is very likely to end 0-0 and go to penalties. Those are always tough to call, but given a shootout I would take Greece. I do see Costa Rica as the likelier team to score in open play. 

France : Nigeria – France will have some issues dealing with Nigeria’s fast, physical forwards but they are so much stronger in the midfield and defense. Don’t expect France to go down this early. France, 2-0.

Germany : Algeria – Germany are the strongest European side and they should have little trouble with Algeria. I expect a slightly cagey first half but the Germans to eventually take over. Germany, 2-0. 

Argentina : Switzerland – Argentina are big favorites here but have yet to impress. I think the Swiss have a shot at upsetting anyone, but not here. Argentina need someone to step up other than Messi, but he has been unstoppable thus far. Argentina, 2-1. 

Belgium : USA – This is probably the tightest matchup of this round. Belgium was able to rest some players and has a deeper side than the USA, but the American midfield has been superb thus far despite Michael Bradley playing far below his standards. I’m just hoping they don’t run out of gas. USA, 1-0.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Why Brazil Will Win This Summer's World Cup

International soccer has undergone a major power shift over the last two decades. Whereas South American teams, primarily Brazil and Argentina, had dominated the trophy cases over the first fifty or so years of World Cup play, European teams have elevated themselves during the last four World Cups. Brazil or Argentina won the World Cup every other tournament from 1962-1994, with only West Germany keeping up with their levels of success. But France's 3-0 win over Brazil in the '98 Final has started a run where European teams have won three of the last four, while also occupying ten of the possible twelve top-3 places. A power shift has certainly taken place, and Spain, Germany, Italy, France and Holland all have high expectations for this year's version.

So why am I so convinced Brazil will win this summer's event? Here's three reasons:

1) History of Hosts' Success

There have been nineteen World Cups. Six hosts have become champions, one a runner-up (famously Brazil in 1950) and five have reached the semi-finals. France, Switzerland, Mexico (twice), Spain, the United States, and South Africa are the hosts who did not reach the semi-finals. Of those, only France and Spain have been major powers in the sport, and those World Cups were in 1938 and 1982, when neither was as strong as they are today. There has been a clear advantage to hosting the event, and while some people see the hosts as under more pressure for this tournament, I see it as a massive boost to their chances. If you watched the Confederations Cup Final between Brazil and Spain, you could hear the crowd for all ninety minutes and see how their energy boosted the home side.

2) Lack of European Success Outside of Europe

I would say that European sides have the highest pedigree after Brazil. Until 2010, a European team had never won a World Cup outside of Europe. Spain was the first team to accomplish that feat, defeating the Netherlands in the final. Brazil has won World Cups on South America, North America, Europe and Asia. They travel incredibly well and have always had one of the talented squads, while European teams have not been able to replicate their brilliance at home when they go abroad. In the Confederations Cup, the team that gave Brazil the most trouble was Uruguay, a South American team. They had little trouble against Spain or Italy, scoring seven goals in the two games.

3) Brazil is the Best Team in the World

In most sports, the rankings that are put out tell a close picture of how teams stack up against one another. I've ranted before about the FIFA rankings because they're utterly useless. Brazil didn't play in qualifiers because they were hosting the World Cup, so they were ranked around 10 for the last year or so. Complete joke. The goalie position is somewhat concerning, as Julio Cesar has not faced top level competition in the last year, but the squad in front of him is stacked. Marcelo and Thiago Silva will anchor the back while big midfielders like Fernandinho will provide support behind quick playmakers like Willian. Neymar, Hulk and Fred provide three different styles for defenses to deal with. The fact that players like Filipe Luis, Miranda, Lucas Moura and Robinho did not make this squad tells you of the talent level. It's unrivaled.

So who can beat Brazil? For me, there's two teams who have a shot.

Argentina -  Brazil's biggest rival has quite a bit of fire power themselves. In Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Argentina has the best attacking options in the tournament. They also will have Angel Di Maria on the wing - he was perhaps Real Madrid's best player in the Champions League Final. I have a lot of questions about their aging defense and goalie position, and I don't think their midfield can keep pace with Brazil's rampant, physical bunch. I give them the best chance to beat Brazil because you just never know what will happen when rivals face one another.

Uruguay - Yes, I don't like a team from Europe can knock off Brazil. Uruguay defeated Brazil in the 1950 World Cup Final to send the entire home crowd into a state of shock. You can bet many Brazilians remember that day, and would be devastated if they fell to their neighbors again. They were fantastic in 2010 and don't really have a weakness. They have a very balanced team and while they don't have as bunch depth in talent, they have elite players like Diego Godin and Luis Suarez (if he's healthy). And don't sleep on Cavani or Forlan either. I think their success will be somewhat tied to Suarez's health, but they gave Brazil all they could handle last year.

If Brazil loses, it is almost certainly going to be a self-capitulation. But stranger things have happened. My other random thoughts for this year's World Cup:

Spain and/or Germany will not make it through their group. Germany has an injury-depleted midfield (they have attacking midfielders but little depth in holding players) while Spain's aging midfield was poor down the stretch. Don't be shocked... Ivory Coast should win Group C. They're the epitome of "they'll do it next time" but with no Falcao for Colombia, they are the best team by some distance... England finishes in last in Group D. They match up poorly with Italy in their first game and then face Uruguay. Costa Rica is better than a lot of people think. England has questions all over the field... France could make a run to the semi finals. They have an easy group and face the second-weakest group in the round of 16. After 2010's debacle, the French are trying to erase bad memories... I like Belgium, but I don't see them going very far. They are young and didn't face very stiff competition in qualifying, other than from Croatia. If Eden Hazard takes over games like he did for Chelsea, they could be a not-so-secret sleeper, but they are more likely to hit a roadblock early.