WORLD CUP - Saying Goodbye to Brazil & Final Preview

Everything seemed to be going to plan before Brazil faced Germany in the first semifinal.

Then, after a 7-1 beatdown, the hosts' hopes were smashed into tiny little pieces. So what happened?

Well, it seems as though Brazil coach Scolari went for an all-or-nothing strategy from the beginning, which on its own is just silly. He chose Bernard ahead of Willian which is understandable, but still a poor choice. Bernard had only played briefly in the tournament and did not pose much of a threat, whereas Willian has a year of Premier League experience under his belt. For the first few minutes, Brazil had the ball and controlled the game. But once they gave the ball up, it was, to be kind, a mess. The first goal they conceded was basic defending - David Luiz lost track of Muller, allowing him to tap it in from six yards out. How do you leave the opponents' leading scorer all alone?

The second goal was well worked by the Germans, but still showed Brazil's unwillingness to defend. Klose fired off a quick shot which Cesar saved, but no one picked up Klose for the rebound for him to tap in. Marcelo had kept Klose onside to begin with, then watched him shoot twice right in front of him.

From that point on, it was always going to be difficult, but Brazil simply gave up. Luiz, tearful at the end of the game, claimed that Brazil "had given everything, but didn't make it." That is just not true. They did not give everything, and while this Brazil team will always be haunted by the scoreline of the game, it is that attitude that is the most damning. Germany blew a four-goal lead to Sweden in a half-hour at home during qualifying; there was no reason to give up. Their defense was scrambling all over the place whenever Germany possessed the ball. Four of the five first half goals for Germany were tap ins. Honestly, if I didn't know the names of the teams or the stage of the game I would have thought that either this was a pro team against an amateur team or that Brazil was throwing the game. After the break they were better but still not hustling. Neuer made some good saves but Schurrle's two goals were more lazy defending by Dante and Luiz. The absence of Thiago Silva was going to matter much more than the storyline favorite Neymar, and while his absence alone did not cause the heavy defeat, it certainly played a major role. Dante had no clue, Luiz couldn't mark anyone and Maicon and Marcelo were constantly caught up the field and leaving their partners out to dry. The midfield was just as bad.

Everyone who reads this blog knows I picked Brazil, and have been saying so for about a year. They were out to erase memories of 1950, where their crushing 2-1 defeat to Uruguay left the nation shocked and saddened. They certainly erased those memories - they made more painful ones, which wasn't thought to be possible.

The biggest beneficiary to this Brazil debacle, other than the Germans and any people who dislike Brazil, is Luis Suarez. World Cups are remembered for the winners and the story lines, and while there have been nice stories like Costa Rica's run to the quarterfinals, the USA's advancement from a tough group, and rising star James Rodriguez, the biggest story line was the bite Suarez inflicted on Giorgio Chiellini's back. Now, that will fade to the background, as this will always be the World Cup where Brazil was humiliated. Suarez has moved on to Barcelona and can start again after his four month ban. Brazil can not.

The Netherlands - Argentina game was pretty dull. I was surprised the Dutch didn't try to attack more, and even more so when Louis Van Gaal used his final substitution to bring on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Even if Tim Krul couldn't replicate his performance against Costa Rica, he would at least have a psychological edge in the shootout. Van Gaal didn't have his team attack enough to justify not saving a substitution for Krul. Argentina were decent but lacked cutting edge. They did have a perfectly good goal by Gonzalo Higuain wrongly ruled out for offside. They kept a third straight clean sheet, and it's that type of defensive work that will be needed against the Germans.

The third place game should be interesting, but all of the focus is on the final. I think Brazil will play better but still lose to the Netherlands. The Dutch have performed well against Brazil and I expect the hosts to still be a bit shocked.

Germany - Argentina

A rematch of the 1986 and 1990 World Cup Finals, one won by West Germany and the other by Argentina. These two sides were probably the second and third favorites after Brazil at the start of the tournament. Germany has impressed throughout this summer's event - defensively controlling games through the midfield while also clinically finishing their opportunities. Argentina haven't been nearly as convincing, but five victories by a one-goal margin and the shootout victory have gotten them here.

At this point, Germany has to be a big favorite. There is a possibility of a let down after such a large victory, but Germany is clicking on all cylinders. They could have scored ten against Brazil and have played better in each of the last three games. Argentina will have fantastic support from their fans and Messi is always a threat.

I can see either side winning this game but Germany looks like the better side. After defeating Brazil, they have proved themselves as the best team in the world, and their midfield is dominant. I don't see Argentina's midfield being able to possess the ball for long stretches like they have in previous games. Argentina's hopes lie in their attacking players. Messi can make a play at any time, and even though he has not played well thus far, so can Aguero. Higuain will probably start up top but expect Aguero at some point. Their pace could cause some problems but I expect Germany to control the game.

Final Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0

Trivia: Germany and Argentina are meeting for a third time in the World Cup Final, the most matchups between any two sides. Who are the two teams that have played each other twice in World Cup Finals? (All other matchups have only happened once.)

Last post's answer was Asamoah Gyan, of Ghana. He has scored six goals in the World Cup, including one in this year's tournament.

WORLD CUP - Changes for Brazil & Semifinal Preview

Four powerhouses are in the semi finals. Hosts Brazil will face Germany on Tuesday, while the Netherlands play Argentina on Wednesday. A team from South America has yet to be eliminated by a non-South American opponent, and if Brazil and Argentina go through it will not happen during this tournament. These matchups are very tight and should be low scoring - the quarterfinals produced just five goals in the four games, with every game decided by a goal or less.

The story in the Brazilian media is the loss of Neymar due to a broken vertebrae. I think this loss should be downplayed. Neymar is Brazil's best attacker and most iconic player, but while Neymar is Brazil, Brazil is not Neymar. He has created the most chances of any player in the tournament thus far, but I do not see the jump down from his ability to Bernard or Willian, his likely replacements, as being steep. It also looks like Neymar's loss could provide Brazilian fans with a source of pride and motivation, as they have had little to be excited about thus far.

The big loss is the absence of Thiago Silva from Brazil's defense. Silva stabilizes the middle of that line and with the sometimes marauding David Luiz as his partner, he is the constant. He's also a fantastic defender and widely regarded as the best in the world. Dante is the likely replacement, and the Bayern man will have to be up to the task of stopping Thomas Muller.

Louis Van Gaal claimed he would have rather seen arch-rivals Belgium go through, and I believe him. Holland would much rather play a European team that they know after playing two CONCACAF sides and squeaking through on each occasion. It hasn't been easy in the knockout stage. Argentina made in five one-goal wins in a row and despite being called "ordinary" by Belgium manager Marc Wilmots, they are improving as this tournament moves forward.

Brazil – Germany

Joachim Low moved Philipp Lahm back to his natural right back position, and with Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield, Germany dominated France through the middle. I was disappointed with France’s lack of ambition throughout the game but was equally impressed with Germany’s defensive prowess. I thought their midfield might be a concern heading into this tournament but with Schweinsteiger looking much more healthy and Mats Hummels dominating the back line, this team has been sound in the defensive third. They have had some close calls but they look very difficult to break down, especially with Manuel Neuer in goal.

Brazil will be short their best attacking player but there are other options. If he is healthy, Willian should replace Neymar and Brazil should keep their same shape. Willian created the second-most chances for Chelsea this past season behind Eden Hazard and plays with a similar style. The other option would be to bring in Paulinho and play with three holding midfielders, but I think this is too defensive against a side that is already going to be tough to break down. Brazil needs flair and creativity. Dante will need to be sturdy and David Luiz, who has been excellent thus far, must show discipline.

This looks to me like the moment of truth for both of these sides. After playing in cruise control through their first four matches, Brazil finally appeared themselves against Colombia. I expect them to play with similar physicality against the Germans. Germany has played better to this point, but will face a raucous crowd in Belo Horizonte. Germany could be slightly better right now, but I am still going with the hosts. Fireworks could be in store, but Brazil typically take part in tight, low-scoring semifinal. Brazil, 1-0.

Netherlands – Argentina

The Dutch were dominant but were nearly knocked out by a feisty Costa Rica side. However, the difference in quality was obvious and their superior fitness was evident in the shootout. Tim Krul came in to stop two of the five penalties while guessing correctly each time. Louis Van Gaal can never be underestimated as a coach, and it was no surprise when he revealed that Krul had been his plan all along. Argentina has not been as clever, but their defense has been surprisingly stout en route to back-to-back 1-0 wins over European opponents. It was a workman-type performance against the Belgians, but Argentina never appeared uncomfortable and Lionel Messi has continued his stellar form into the knockout stages. Some of his long dribbling runs were mesmerizing and his initial play led to Gonzalo Higuain’s winner. He has lived up to his reputation as a one man show in this tournament.

I don’t see anything changing for Argentina. The loss of Angel Di Maria is important but hardly fatal – Argentina have plenty of attacking players and it looks as though Sergio Aguero will be fit again. Holland have been far less convincing and their young defense will be in for a tough day. The Dutch defeated Uruguay 3-2 at this stage in 2010 and if there's a game in the semifinals with some scoring, I would expect it to be this one. If they are to go through, Robin Van Persie has to play significantly better. I don't think he will, and home advantage will rule again. Argentina, 2-1.

I'm sticking with my original guess at the beginning of the tournament - a Brazil-Argentina final. What a wild one that would be.

Trivia: Name the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer that isn’t from South America or Europe. (Hint: He played in this summer’s World Cup)

Last week’s answer: Norway. Brazil is 0-2-2 against the Norwegians, losing their one World Cup meeting 2-1 in 1998.

World Cup Round of 16 Recap, Reflections on USA and Quarterfinal Preview

Most exciting Round of 16 in my memory - that's for sure. Five of the eight matches went into extra time, two were decided on penalties, but somehow all eight of the group winners managed to go through. Defeat was cruelest on Chile, who hit the post in the last minute of extra time and then watched Gonzalo Jara's deciding penalty bounce off the inside of the right post and out. Eleven of the eighteen goals scored came in the 90th minute or later. Unbelievable drama.

I must say, as a USA fan, there was nothing left to give. It was heartbreaking to see the side go out given the chances they created in the final fifteen minutes, but there could be no argument over who the better side was. USA is making up a lot of ground in a short period of time - two tournaments in a row now they have gone past the group stage and three of their last four. They led Brazil 2-0 at the half in the 2009 Confederations Cup Final before going down 3-2, which came just after a 2-0 win over Euro 2008 champions Spain. These are moments that USA players and fans could not have dreamed of twenty or so years ago.

That being said, the gap is still there, and talent wise it is massive. The bottom line is that we had one forward who belonged in the team, and without Jozy, we were left with Dempsey, who is not a pure number 9, and a group of strikers who don't have a place on the top level of football. We brought on Chris Wondolowski, who is a poacher and good positioned forward, but no sort of elite talent. Belgium brought on Romelu Lukaku, a forward for Chelsea with a deadly combination of pace and strength. The future is very bright for the USA if their young players continue to develop and bring the sort of positive attitude to the game that we saw from Yedlin, Johnson and Green.

My last point about the USA is this whole notion of "we don't win because the talent plays other sports." That is completely false. There are 300 million people in this country; there are just under 17 million in Holland. Which country has an extremely decorated history in this sport? Football is not a game of talent and physicality - it comes from culture, time and experience. The USA team clearly has unity and fighting spirit - it is just missing the last bit of culture that comes from generations of experience at the top level.  Jurgen Klinsmann is bringing that bit of culture to this team and demanding it be more positive, and to stop giving too much "respect" to their opponents. This is exactly what is needed to bring the team from hopeful underdogs to a legitimate power. He is speeding up the process. By 2018, we should see a more comfortable USA, and hopefully we won't get such a demanding draw.

Anyway, we have three teams from South America, four from Europe, and one from good ol' CONCACAF. The South American sides were knocked out by other teams from their continent, and one more will go down this round after Brazil plays Colombia. I expect three of these four matchups to be absolute dynamite (guess the odd one out).

France – Germany 

France stayed perfect by seeing off Nigeria 2-0 but were slightly off of the pace. They had the better of the play for nearly the whole game but their two goals were from poor Nigerian mistakes and they were tested at the other end several times. Germany have not played a complete game since their 4-0 thumping of Portugal, and were inches away from going behind to Algeria in the first half. This is truly a matchup of titans and should be a testy affair.

I mentioned before this tournament that I saw a weakness in Germany in their holding midfield. Joachim Low has tried to play Philipp Lahm in that role and it has simply not worked. Lahm is a much better right back than holding midfield player, and with Sami Khedira out of form and Schweinsteiger playing injured, there is an obvious deficiency. France have Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi waiting to gobble them up. France have a strong, physical team and are playing better at the moment. Although he did not score against Nigeria, Karim Benzema was a threat all game and should find his way onto the score sheet here. France, 2-0.

Brazil – Colombia

Colombia are the tournament’s new dark horse. Cast aside by many, including myself, after losing star striker Radamel Falcao in February, Colombia has won all four of their games so far, scored at least twice in each, and has the tournament’s leading scorer and rising young star, James Rodriguez. Their next challenge? Tournament hosts and favorites Brazil, who have failed to impress in any of their fixtures so far. They will try to break the World Cup streak of eight straight losses for a team that won a penalty shootout in its last match – the last to win was France in 1998.

I can’t go against the hosts yet. They have lost just twice to Colombia in twenty-five matches and haven’t lost at home in a competitive match to anyone since 1975. Colombia have impressed me, but I don’t think any of their opponents were as good as they were believed to be before the tournament started. Brazil haven’t played the stiffest competition either, but the home support has been able to help the side squeeze out results. This little Copa America is a tough test for the hosts, but if they can click into gear now, they will be ready to go on to win the tournament. Brazil, 2-1.

Argentina – Belgium

This is just a great matchup. Similar teams with pacey wingers and loads of world class attacking talent. Belgium and Argentina are each a perfect four-for-four so far in this tournament, and interestingly, each side has won each of their games by a one-goal margin. Argentina were just good enough to find the late winner against the Swiss, while Belgium held on for dear life in the final fifteen minutes against USA after dominating the first 105. Are they out of energy?

Argentina have had strong fan support throughout the tournament, contrasted by the home Brazilian fans rooting against them. Belgium have a very strong side and will be difficult to penetrate. I expect a low scoring game. Both of these sides have created plenty of chances but few finishing touches. Fitness is about even given that both sides just played extra time and had wrapped up their respective groups after two games. This could go either way, but I will give the edge to the Argentines in South America. Argentina, 1-0.

Netherlands – Costa Rica

The Dutch struggled through most of their game against Mexico before finding two goals in the last five minutes of the game to turn it around. The penalty was courtesy of a trademark Arjen Robben flop, but I guess that is to be expected. Can’t be too upset when it happens to a player like Marquez. Costa Rica have slowed down every game, but turned in a valiant performance with ten men against Greece, winning the penalty shootout 5-3.

While Colombia is the fashionable dark horse, Costa Rica are the Cinderella story, hoping to knock off a third European powerhouse. I would really like to see them go through but I bet against them because I think they’re out of gas. After playing over an hour with ten men in the last round, plus the deteriorating level of performances as this tournament has gone on, it’s difficult to see them going through here. The Dutch have more rest, more ability, and more experience. Louis Van Gaal’s troops should be in the semifinals. Netherlands, 3-0.

I am going to add a trivia question to my posts from now on. The answer will come in the next post, or Google it if you’re impatient. This post’s question is:

Who is the only team Brazil have played, and not beaten?