UEFA Champions League - Semifinal Preview: Bundesliga v La Liga

The quarterfinals went largely as anticipated - Barcelona shrugged off a rugged PSG side on away goals, Real cruised through against Gala, Dortmund used a late miracle to squeak by Malaga, and Bayern hammered an overmatched Juventus side. The semi-final draw avoided the El Clasico matchup, and pitted the top two sides in the Bundesliga, Bayern and Dortmund, against the top two sides in La Liga, Barcelona and Real Madrid.

BAYERN MUNICH v BARCELONA

What to watch for: Which midfield takes control of the game. Barcelona have used their possession game to win two European cups in the last four years, while Bayern have displayed a ruthless attacking style this year, clinching the Bundesliga in record time. Bayern have the better attacking pieces but if they do not have service they cannot score, and Barca always does a good job of taking away that service. Bayern are also superior in the defensive end, conceding nothing against a Juventus team full of attacking options. Barcelona have long covered up their weaker defense with their pressure in midfield, so Bayern will be looking to push the ball towards the back four as much as possible.

History: These sides last met competitively in 2009 - also in the Champions League knockout stage. Barcelona took the first leg 4-0 at the Nou Camp, while the second leg in Munich ended in a 1-1 draw.

Who will win: Bayern Munich. Bayern are in impeccable form, and with their focus fully turned to European football, I expect a strong performance at the Allianz Arena and their year-long road form to continue. Barcelona don't look as strong in Europe this year - they were tested by both AC Milan and PSG, who are solid teams, but vintage Barca would be expected to come away with simpler victories. They were thoroughly outplayed by PSG at home, and they failed to win the away leg in either of their last two ties. Bayern were poor at home against Arsenal, which we can mostly attribute to complacency with the 3-1 lead, and they were solid against Juve. The semi-finals have been the stage for Barca to fall and with Messi not playing at 100%, it becomes easier to see Bayern casting them aside. If the Bavarians establish an advantage in the first leg, look for them to be playing in London in May. 

Prediction: Bayern 2-0 Barcelona, Barcelona 2-1 Bayern (Bayern 3-2 Aggregate)

BORUSSIA DORTMUND v REAL MADRID

What to watch for: Can Dortmund do it again? These two sides already played an aggregate-type matchup this year in the group stage, with Dortmund winning 2-1 in Germany and the sides playing to a 2-2 draw in Spain. Dortmund have already proven they can beat Madrid so there will be no fear, whereas Madrid will not underestimate their opponents having already lost out on first place during the group stage. There may not be a greater tactician than Jose Mourinho, and with the past defeats in mind, he should be up for the challenge.

Lack of motivation: Both sides are domestically far behind the two sides contesting the other semifinal, so full focus will be on the European tie. Real have the final of the Copa del Rey to look forward to in May, while Dortmund were eliminated in the DFB-Pokal by Bayern.

Who will win: Real Madrid. You could argue Real have been the most consistent team in this competition so far - their only weakness has been Dortmund. In the two games against their German opponents, Real looked unsettled and Dortmund's attacking trio were quite the threat. I expect them to be a threat in this tie too, but look for Real to be more prepared defensively. Real fell at this stage to Bayern last year and will be looking to reach their first final since 2002, and with Jose Mourinho likely leaving this summer, he will want to finish his Real tenure with an appearance in the final. Expect plenty of attacking football, but with more experience on the field and in the dugout for Real, Madrid should be playing in this year's final. Dortmund struggled against Malaga in the last round and I see them struggling to finish chances again. If they can keep this core together, they could win this competition - this year seems a bit early.

Prediction: Dortmund 1-1 Real Madrid, Real Madrid 3-1 Dortmund (Real Madrid 4-2 Aggregate)

I am sticking with Real as I have from the beginning of the season - but these matches are guaranteed to be classic. All four teams could be argued as the best in Europe and we should see good displays and goals. Enjoy!

2012-13 UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

PSG v BARCELONA

How PSG wins: The multitude of talent that PSG owners brought in this summer, which has failed to gel at times, comes together as a team and plays with concerted discipline. Ibrahimovic backs up his billing as a top-five striker in the world and the Parisians counter-attack Barca relentlessly. The other attacking pieces help expose a weak Barca defense and create an advantage to hold for the second leg in Spain.

How BARCELONA wins: They play their game. Barca have proven nearly impossible to stop when they can piece their passing play together, and the story is no different here. They are effective in breaking down a tight PSG defense and produce a strong result in France, while finishing off the French side at the Nou Camp.

Key players: CB Thiago Silva (PSG); CM Xavi (Barcelona)

The holding midfield and defense are always critical against Barcelona, and as one of the top central defenders in the world, Thiago Silva will be the main man in charge of shutting down Barca’s tiki-taka attacking game. Silva has both the pace and tactical know-how to hold their very potent offense at bay. Xavi will be pulling the strings for the Spaniards, and he will continue to be their most important player. Even with his increasing age, Xavi is the heart of this team and he will need to play well against a very talented PSG defensive front.

Who will advance: Barcelona. PSG have loads of talent and could be contenders in the future – for the time being it is likely too soon. Barca have loads more experience in this competition and this would still be early for them to go out. To beat the Catalans, it takes not only talent but discipline, something PSG have not exhibited this year. I do believe in Ancelotti as a coach, but it may be another year or two before we can put PSG with the elite teams in Europe. After last round’s scare against Milan, expect Barca to come out firing and avoid the drama of having to come back in their home leg. This should be a tight tie and if PSG’s defense can hold, they certainly have the attacking prowess to trouble Barca. However, they may not see enough of the ball to take control in this tie and provide a consistent threat in the attacking third. Expect Barcelona to make it through a tough test from the Parisians. 

Prediction: Barcelona 3-1 PSG

REAL MADRID v GALATASARAY

How REAL MADRID wins: Real have superior talent and coaching so they are big favorites to go through. They do not fall behind and build pressure on themselves, and their large array of attacking options are too much for Gala to handle. 

How GALATASARAY wins: The least recognizable name left in the competition, Gala play with nothing to lose. While the club may not be well-known in Europe, their star players prove the quality of their reputation and take the game to Real. They use the same counter-attacking game Dortmund used to beat the Spaniards and smash-and-grab a series of results to sneak through.

Key players: FW Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid); CM Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray)

Ronaldo is always the focus when he’s on the field, and his impeccable form will be nearly impossible for Gala’s defense to handle. Even if Gala focus their attention on him, Ronaldo is a good enough player to feed his teammates, who have been shaky at times in front of goal. It’s up to him to put it on a plate if he is unable to score himself. Sneijder will be in charge of the Gala midfield and his form has returned since his move to Turkey. Expect him to create plenty of opportunities for Drogba and Yilmaz against his former employers. 

Who will advance: Real Madrid. This tie is interesting because Gala pack a bigger punch than many would think – Yilmaz is joint leading scorer, Drogba helped Chelsea to a Champions League crown last year, and Sneijder has returned after a bad ending to his spell at Inter. This team is not to be underestimated, and their road form has been good in Europe. If they can take the game to Real in Madrid, they will face a difficult task in front of the raucous fans in Turkey. Mourinho and Real have plenty of experience at this stage and will be well-prepared. I don’t expect this to be a non-contest but Real should make it to the semi-finals while avoiding the drama of their tie with Manchester United. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 4-2 Galatasaray

MALAGA v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

How MALAGA wins: Malaga continue their stellar defensive play in Europe and stifle Dortmund’s attacking triangle. They will need to play cautiously but they have proven their quality in winning their group and eliminating Porto. They take a lead in Spain and hold off a German onslaught in Dortmund to continue their magical run in their first Champions League appearance.

How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: Dortmund have been able to break down every team they have played in Europe, and although Malaga boast one of the continent’s best defensive records, Dortmund’s force of Lewandowski, Gotze, and Reus offer versatility that few defenses can stop. Dortmund take a patient approach and assure the tie can be won at home, limiting Malaga’s counter-attacking opportunities to rare long balls down the wings. 

Key players: FW Isco (Malaga); FW Robert Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund)

Isco has been fantastic for Malaga, and although he may leave for greener pastures in the summer, he cares for the club and its fans. He will be a threat, especially in Spain, and will be the player for the Spaniards to keep an eye on. Lewandowski is charged with leading his team’s line against the Malaga back line, and he will need to be on top of his game. Chances will not be often, and chances that he squandered against Shakhtar cannot be afforded in this tie. 

Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund are the better team and this is the stage where you rarely see the “cinderellas” move on. With the Bundesliga long gone, Dortmund are fully focused on their European football and are fully healthy, which is especially important during this time of the year. Malaga’s run has been hugely helpful for the club financially, and they will not back down easily. I think the red card to Porto in last round’s second leg played a large role in Malaga’s advancement, and while I believe they belong in the same conversation as the other clubs still alive, they are just a shade lacking in the attacking third. Dortmund should be able to create enough chances, especially at home, to battle their way through to the semi-finals. 

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Malaga

BAYERN MUNICH v JUVENTUS

How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern shake off their scare against Arsenal and bring the game that brought them a 9-2 victory over Hamburg at the weekend. They continue to be motivated by last year’s disappointment and methodically break down a stellar Juventus defense. They use their home advantage to build a lead to bring to Turin, where they hold off Juve in a classic encounter. 

How JUVENTUS wins: Juve continue their excellent defensive play and their offense continues to be a threat. They play cautiously in Munich but find a way to score away from home, then use their away goal to pile all of the pressure on Bayern. Superior midfield play and finishing take Juve through narrowly to the semis. 

Key players: LW Frank Ribery (Bayern Munich); CM Claudio Marchisio (Juventus)

All of Bayern’s attacking players will be in the spotlight but Ribery will be especially important. His pace is tough for any defense to handle and he can both unlock the wings to create scoring chances for himself while sending balls into the box for Gomez and Madzukic to get a head on. Marchisio has been one of the strongest links of Juve’s midfield, and he will be in charge of helping Pirlo control the middle third of the field. In a matchup with very little give, Marchisio must help Juve take advantage of their strength all season – possession in central midfield.

Who will advance: Juventus. Juventus look massively underrated by the odds in this tie (Bayern are 1/2 to go through) and have not conceded in five straight Champions League ties. After Bayern’s last performance in the Champions League, I am hardly confident in their abilities against a much tougher opponent. I must allow some slack for complacency due to the large lead, but I would have expected Bayern to handle an Arsenal squad that has lacked much conviction during this season away from the Emirates. I don't think this is much of an upset - Juventus are champions of Italy and have not lost a game in Europe this season (5 W, 3 D). This should be the tightest tie of the round, and both sides to be evenly prepared for it. I think Juve will just barely take it with their advantage of the second-leg being at home.

Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Bayern Munich