New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends

The European Championships are UEFA’s flagship competition in international football. After five competitions with 16 teams, the field is being expanded to 24 teams for the 2016 tournament. There has been severe backlash from areas of the continent, suggesting that the competition will be watered down with the addition of eight more teams. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, and the change is already paying off.

Whenever a tournament has been expanded in sports, there are two sides of the argument. One side will suggest that the additional teams bolster the competition by adding more games and creating a more competitive and unpredictable tournament. The extra games allow for more participants to be involved and increases the revenue generated by the event. Opponents suggest that having more games makes it harder for the truly elite teams to succeed by presenting unworthy competition the opportunity to take a final shot in the tournament. In this scenario, the “best” team has a lesser chance of winning because of the increased amount of games, diluting the competition’s quality. For example, in the case of the NCAA’s basketball tournament, I am a firm opponent of expanding the tournament. I feel that the teams who don’t get in had plenty of chances to prove themselves, and expanding the tournament would water down the competition so much that the regular season would not matter. In the European Championships, I see the opposite effect.

In the previous format, just 16 of 54 associations would be allowed to participate in the final tournament – a total of 29.6%. The host (or occasionally co-hosts) automatically qualifies, taking away one or two spots from qualifiers. That pushes the percentage of qualifiers to reach the finals down (with one host) to 28.3%. This year, with France as host, 43.4% of the qualifiers will reach the final tournament. This should benefit competition in the groups and overall parity across the continent. Teams who were drawn from Pot 4 and Pot 5 had virtually no chance in the previous format – the eight group winners often come from Pot 1 or 2, while second place would not even guarantee a place in the finals, but a place in the playoffs against a higher-ranked opponent. Now, players for countries like Wales and Iceland can have a real motivation to compete because they have a chance. In the first match day alone, we saw Albania (Pot 5) defeat Portugal (Pot 1), Iceland (Pot 5) defeat Turkey (Pot 3), Cyprus (Pot 5) defeat Bosnia-Herzegovina (Pot 1), Northern Ireland (Pot 5) defeat Hungary (Pot 2), and Scotland (Pot 4) lose 2-1 to World Champions Germany. On the second match day, Kazakhstan, from the lowest pot in the draw (Pot 6), led the Dutch at halftime. Obviously, these results are not expected to continue and the top sides will regain their form, but I see the extra motivation for the minnows as the primary reason for these historic scorelines.

Let’s take a quick look at Montenegro. A Pot 5 side in the last European qualifiers, the tiny Balkan country surprised by snatching second-place from Switzerland by a point. Their unlikely qualification for the playoffs was swiftly met with a playoff against 11th ranked Czech Republic, who beat the Montenegrins 3-0 on aggregate. Did Montenegro deserve a place in the finals? Probably not, but their improvement gave the side something to build upon going into the next qualifiers. This time, their group is much tougher, with Russia, Sweden and Austria joining them in fighting for three spots. That group has already been electric – those four sides are separated by just three points. With just one automatic qualification spot available in the previous format, one of the four teams would likely be out of the mix before the end, lessening the quality of their remaining fixtures. With two teams advancing and a third gaining a playoff spot, all four teams will likely be in it until the end.

I don’t think the 24-team final tournament compromises the competition at all. Apart from Greece’s victory in Portugal 2004, which was a 16-team format, there has not been a major shock winner in international football. I also don’t see a major gap between the sides currently ranked 13-16 and the sides right below them. Ukraine (10), Sweden (13), and Denmark (14) strike me as marginally better, at best, than the Czechs (17), Ireland (19) and Turkey (21). There will hardly be a massive drop off in quality. Will there be a low-ranked side in the finals? Most likely, but again, this is not news. In the World Cup, eight sides ranked 33 or lower (since the World Cup, in theory, should be the top 32 teams) qualified for the finals. Only one team, Nigeria, advanced out of the group stage, and they were eliminated by France in the Round of 16. That is what usually happens to bad teams – they lose. I see no problem having more teams involved in the group stage. 

Lastly, it changes the way that European footballers look at international qualifying. It gives the opportunity for players to 1) play for their home country versus gravitating towards an eligible country to play for a better team and 2) individually lift their country on the big stage. Wales is my most obvious example – they are hardly a one-man team, but the star of the show is clearly Gareth Bale. Given that UEFA has 13 places in the World Cup, it’s unlikely Bale’s Wales would ever qualify, and with just three more places in the Euros previously, they didn’t have much of a chance either as they are currently stuck in Pot 4. However, with the additional places, Bale has the potential to push the team into the tournament and light up the continental stage. How many times have you seen a player raise his game to push his team past a better opponent? They may not all make it, but now the continent’s best players will at least have the opportunity to qualify. In the end, we could have a tournament featuring players like Bale, Robert Lewandowski, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Cristiano Ronaldo, and David Alaba, none of whom are on the continent’s best teams. Plus two-time defending champions Spain, and World Champions Germany. Who would turn that off?

The change is already paying off. We’ve seen a number of upsets already, and the games are generally closer. Going forward, it’s hard to see teams like Germany and the Netherlands running a near-perfect slate through qualifying. This change to the rules has made the qualifying process more competitive, and should make European teams better on the global stage.

Through three match days, I list the group leaders. Just one team from the first pot currently leads their group – that really says it all.

Group A – Iceland

Group B – Wales

Group C – Slovakia

Group D – Poland

Group E – England

Group F – Northern Ireland

Group G – Austria

Group H – Croatia

Group I – Denmark

Not exactly your world powers? 

PS: The abandonment of the Serbia - Albania game today was the most foreseeable cancellation for quite some time. Why they are even playing each other is beyond me.

UEFA Champions League Group Stage - Preview, Predictions

Group A

Atletico showed in the Spanish Super Cup that despite losing a number of players over the summer transfer window, they were going to continue to play at an elite level. Mario Mandzukic was a huge signing, and one that flew completely under the radar in a summer where James Rodriguez, Angel Di Maria and Falcao dominated headlines. Mandzukic is a great player and fits well into Diego Simeone’s team with both power and pace. The signing of Antoine Griezmann was also critical – he really shined at Real Sociedad and they only had to pay around 30 million Euros for the 23-year old. Atletico is the strongest team in this group, and I expect them to build upon the success they had last year.

Juventus is a bit of a mystery to me. They were terrible last year in a group that they should have progressed from, losing out to Galatasaray 1-0 on the final match day. Keeping Arturo Vidal was essential for the team, and on paper, this team is one of the best in Europe. I’m only skeptical because of how weak the Italian league has become over the last five years, along with their poor performance last year. Coach Antonio Conte has also moved on to coach the Italian national team. Juventus shouldn’t have to sweat this group out like last year, but they must prove themselves at this stage if they want to set up a long run.

Olympiakos and Malmo round out the group of four domestic champions – Olympiakos easily captured another Greek title, while Malmo captured their first championship since 2010, beating AIK by five points. Olympiakos have consistently mixed in around second and third place in the group stage and this year should be no different. I don’t think they will make it through because of how good Atletico and Juventus are, and the sale of Kostas Manolas to Roma leaves a huge whole in the center of the Greeks’ defense. They will compete, surely, but going through will be difficult. Malmo are making their maiden appearance in the Champions League and are the first Swedish team to qualify since AIK in 1999. I don’t give Malmo any type of minnows’ chance here – they do have former Werder Bremen star Markus Rosenberg leading their ranks – but anything more than a point or two would be surprising for the Swedes.

  

      1)      Atletico Madrid

      2)      Juventus

      3)      Olympiakos

      4)      Malmo FF

Group B

The holders of the trophy are recreating history. Unfortunately, it’s the part of their history that was coupled with internal tension and a lack of success. After Jose Mourinho built a team in Madrid, and Carlo Ancelotti pushed the right tactical buttons, Real Madrid won the Champions League in a thrilling final against city rivals Atletico. Instead of continuing this route of success, Real have gone back to their galacticos days, selling Xabi Alonso and Angel Di Maria, two of the most important pieces of last year’s team, while buying James Rodriguez for an exorbitant fee, even though he doesn’t fit in tactically. Real isn’t just a footballing club, it’s a worldwide showpiece; James was surely bought not only for his ability, but for his attraction in the World Cup, allowing Madrid to increase their shirt sales and brand exposure. I get that move, but I don’t get the sale of Alonso. Toni Kroos was brought in to presumably play the same position, but why sell one of the players who has been at the center of the club’s success? Real should win this group and will navigate through sides who are not up to this level, but I think they will have trouble against Liverpool and the better teams later in the competition, when the side staring across from them knows how to play as a team. They are a mess right now and Ancelotti has very little time to right the ship.

Liverpool have completed their recovery and are finally back in the Champions League. Luis Suarez’s sale to Barcelona leaves a hole in the front that Mario Balotelli could fill, but only time will tell. I don’t like the purchase of Balotelli. He was cheap, and he is a gamble, but Liverpool have a sense of pride and club unity that Balotelli will never have in his career. He could be a great success for the Reds, and his talent is right there with the top strikers in the world. Mario has never proven he can showcase that ability on a consistent basis, or without the occasional moment of madness. Liverpool has a good team but a shaky defense, and until that defense improves, they will be a step below the top. They should find their way through but it will be tight.

Basel defeated Chelsea home and away last season, and will look for similar success this year in a group where they will have to face two huge clubs. Basel has defeated Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Bayern Munich in recent years, and it would be no shock to me if they are able to beat Real or Liverpool at least once. They are just a little below the grade in this group, and while I could see them advancing, I think they will come up just a bit short. Ludogorets join Malmo in making their first appearance in the Champions League group stage, and the Bulgarians will have trouble competing. The three other sides in this group move the ball at a very quick pace, something Ludogorets will have trouble adjusting to. The long trip could pose a problem, but they will have a difficult time scraping together any points in this group. 

     1)      Real Madrid

     2)      Liverpool

     3)      FC Basel

     4)      Ludogorets Razgrad

Group C

Group C is for Group Crapshoot. All four teams in this group are at around the same level – surprising given the way groups are drawn but also because not one of these teams really stands out. It would have been all the more interesting if either Falcao or James Rodriguez had stayed at Monaco, who now clearly look the weakest of this group. It has been a real struggle in Europe for French sides in recent years. France gets two teams automatically into the group stage, while the third placed team goes into the third qualifying round; the third qualifier was knocked out last year and this year, while teams not named PSG have compiled just one win in eighteen group games during the past two tournaments (Lille defeated BATE Borisov in a virtually meaningless game). Marseille laid down the old six-losses-from-six goose egg last year. Yikes. Needless to say, my hopes are not high for Monaco and it looks like there will be more pain for French sides in Europe. 

As for the rest of the group, it’s anyone’s guess. Benfica are mainstays in this competition but have failed to make a deep run, or truly showcase themselves as a major power. They deserve respect and look to be the best team in the group, but they are a level below many of the other Pot 1 sides. Bayer Leverkusen have started strongly this year, but I’m skeptical of any German side other than the top two teams, Bayern and Dortmund. Bayer won at Dortmund to start the Bundesliga season, so maybe they will establish themselves, but I would like to see a sustained string of results. The addition of Swiss forward Josip Drmic could allow Bayer to compete with the top two German sides. Andre Villas Boas’s Zenit are off to a perfect start in the Russian Premier League, winning all six of their games. They were much better against Standard Liege in the playoff round than against AEL in the prior round, so the Russian side could be a surprise candidate to win the group. I think the side will boom or bust, and given their erratic performances in the Champions League, I’m going to go against them here. Hulk’s absence until October will lose them a bit of attacking edge in their opening games, which could cost them crucial points. In general, Benfica, Bayer and Zenit could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me. 

     1)      Benfica

     2)      Bayer Leverkusen

     3)      Zenit St. Petersburg

     4)      AS Monaco

Group D

Dortmund topped Group F last year, finishing above Arsenal and Napoli, with all three clubs tied on twelve points. The two sides split their meetings last year, with each side winning away from home. Despite having two of their best players vultured by Bayern, Dortmund have a very strong lineup and a number of dynamic attacking players. Marco Reus has attracted plenty of interest across Europe, but he will be out for a month following his injury in a Euro 2016 qualifying match against Scotland. This injury gives Arsenal a slight edge over the Germans in Group D. Arsenal have attacking problems of their own with main striker Olivier Giroud out for three months, and backup Yaya Sanogo unable to find the net. However, the Gunners picked up Danny Welbeck on deadline day, and although I don’t think Welbeck can lead Arsenal back to the ranks of the elite, he is a much needed purchase to compliment Alexis Sanchez. I liked Arsenal’s purchases for the most part, despite some of them being more of the best-player-available versus the player-we-need variety. Dortmund was able to edge the Londoners to top spot last year, forcing them to play Bayern Munich while their counterparts took on Zenit. Look for Arsenal to flip roles with Dortmund, with both going through. 

Galatasaray edged through last year’s group stage with a matchday 6 win over Juventus, but never really challenged Chelsea in the last sixteen. They have struggled away from home, losing three out of four matches last season. The departure of Didier Drogba doesn’t affect the team too much, but as Gala is matched up against two superior sides like Arsenal and Dortmund, they could have used the extra experience. It’s never easy travelling to Istanbul – Arsenal was lucky to escape with a 0-0 draw against Besiktas in the playoff round – but Gala face long odds to advance from this group. Anderlecht’s are far longer. The club has frequently entered the competition but rarely made any sort of impact. They came in last in their group during the past two competitions, and it’s hard to see that result not repeating itself. Anderlecht has developed a number of stars, including Everton’s Romelu Lukaku, but have few top-quality players in their squad. Anything above last place would be surprising. 

     1)      Arsenal

     2)      Borussia Dortmund

     3)      Galatasaray

     4)      Anderlecht

Group E

Similar to Group C, except on a much higher level, Group E features three sides who will competing for the top two spots to advance, while the third should wind up in the Europa League. Bayern Munich are facing some questions after their disappointing end to last season, as well as injuries to top players Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez. The German club brought in Xabi Alonso and Mehdi Benatia as cover, and the signing of Robert Lewandowski provides a different dynamic than former lead man Mario Mandzukic. It is a different Bayern team – I don’t know if it’s better. It’s certainly one of the best teams in the world, but Pep Guardiola will need to mold this team into the dominant one that started last season, or face pressure from Bayern’s rogue board. 

As I mentioned in Group A, the Italian league has suffered over the last few years, especially since losing its fourth Champions League spot to Germany. Roma had some down years but are back in Europe after finishing second in Serie A. They could be a dark horse in this group – Rudi Garcia’s men are an interesting mix of youth and experience. I don’t expect them to make it through on their first trip back, but things should be very tight between the Giallorossi and Manchester City. City are undoubtedly a European powerhouse, making their first trip to the knockout stage last year, where they were defeated by Barcelona. This team has had its issues in Europe, but they scored eleven goals in four games against Bayern and CSKA last year, winning three of the four. It’s defensive problems that have plagued City throughout their recent years, and this group is no short of attacking play. I like City to make it over Roma on their greater European experience, but none of these games will be easy. 

Well, CSKA fans must have joked about this draw and been absolutely horrified when it came out. CSKA allowed thirteen goals in their four matches against City and Bayern last season, losing every one. This is by no means a bad team – they have a number of very capable players, such as Nigeria’s Ahmed Musa and Ivory Coast’s Seydou Doumbia. Their draw is far too mighty for them, so CSKA’s chances are dim at best. 

     1)      Bayern Munich

     2)      Manchester City

     3)      AS Roma

     4)      CSKA Moscow

Group F

Two of the world’s heavyweights collide in Group F, and the group could go either way. PSG and Barcelona met two years ago in the knockout round and Barcelona clawed through on away goals. PSG faltered at the quarterfinal stage last year against a Chelsea team that they were better than, and they will look upon that experience this year to push them further. This could be one of the last times Zlatan Ibrahimovic gets to try and capture that elusive Champions League title to couple all of his domestic wins. PSG didn’t do themselves any favors in the transfer window, spending way too much money on the erratic David Luiz and not bolstering either of their wing back positions. However, I think they win the group because they have a stronger midfield than Barcelona. The Catalans will score tons of goals, especially when Luis Suarez enters the fray, and Lionel Messi looks revitalized after he looked somewhat bored at the end of last season. Rumors about Messi saving himself for the World Cup were true, as he was stellar in Brazil and is off to a good start in La Liga. They will be devastating up top, but I want to see how their midfield performs.

Ajax always seem to get an impossible draw and this year is no different. They have a much better team than their performances in Europe would suggest, but what really matters is the results. It will be very difficult for Ajax to go through, though they have had success against Barcelona. APOEL is one of my favorite minnows, having reached the quarterfinals two years ago after winning their group. They are probably the strongest team to advance from the “Champions” channel of the playoff round and have considerable European experience. However, this challenge is greater than what they would have envisioned, and while I expect APOEL to keep things tight in the back, points will be hard to come by. The deadline day purchase of former Liverpool and AS Roma left-back John Arne Riise gives them an unexpected boost in class and makes the side more intriguing from an upset standpoint. A last place finish seems the most likely, but I hardly expect any embarrassments from the Cypriots. 

     1)      Paris Saint-Germain

     2)      Barcelona

     3)      Ajax

     4)      APOEL

Group G

Group G is for Group Gift - this group was a gift for Chelsea. There are few scenarios, if any, where it could have turned out better, as they drew one of the weakest teams from each pot and also don’t have to travel very far. Chelsea destroyed Schalke last season, winning 3-0 home and away, en route to winning Group E. The Blues have a better team than last year and if Diego Costa can stay healthy, they will make a long run in this competition. The addition of Loic Remy gives him a solid cover, while the unloading of Fernando Torres allowed the forward position to start anew in the side. Costa and Remy have put up eight goals in Chelsea's first four Premier League games and in a weak group, Chelsea could score a lot of goals. It would be a major surprise to see Chelsea not top this group, as would fewer than four wins. 

Schalke are very average for me. I’ve talked before about my feelings towards Bayern Munich and the way they have eaten up the competition in the Bundesliga, and Schalke is not even close to the level they were on a few years ago. They have plenty of good players, but finished a distant third in the Bundesliga last year, and were demolished by Chelsea in the group stage and 9-2 on aggregate by Real Madrid in the knockout round. Ugh. Players like Julian Draxler and Benedikt Howedes return with World Cup Winners’ medals, and maybe that could help spark this team back to a higher level. For now, I see them going through, but just barely. 

Sporting broke the 1-2 dominance Porto and Benfica enjoyed in the Portuguese Liga, finishing second behind their Lisbon rivals last season. My last memory of them in the competition was a record 12-1 aggregate spanking that Bayern Munich handed them in the knockout stage. Sporting are an unknown at this point and could surprise, especially with how vulnerable Schalke and Maribor are. I gave the edge to Schalke based on experience, but Sporting should be right there with them. Teams that are as young as Sporting do not often get very far, but they should keep things interesting. Maribor won the Slovenian league and make their second appearance in the group stage. Maribor is a proud club with a successful history in Slovenia, but it hasn’t translated to Europe. I see them stealing a point or two off of Sporting or Schalke, but it’s difficult to see them posing any major threat to the other three sides in this group. 

     1)      Chelsea

     2)      Schalke

     3)      Sporting CP

     4)      Maribor

Group H

Athletic defeated Napoli in a playoff to reach the group stage, and it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise. Spain and Italy have been on a straight path in opposite directions over the past few years, with Spanish teams performing exceptionally in Europe while Italian teams have repeatedly faltered. Athletic bring a free-flowing passing game to the competition, and while I’m wary of their lack of European experience, they look like the best team in this group. They don’t resemble Real Sociedad’s side from last year that crashed out in the group. 

Porto really struggled last year. They scored just four goals in six games in a very weak group, finishing level on points with Austria Vienna. That was certainly not what they had in mind, and reinforcements were brought in this summer to strengthen the attacking play. Adrian Lopez should have a positive effect following his move from Atletico, and Porto will be hoping Yacine Brahimi can continue playing at the level he displayed during the World Cup. I think they will improve greatly and should find their way into the next round. 

BATE have reached the group stage for the third time in five years, sweeping aside Slovan Bratislava in the playoff round. They defeated Bayern and Lille in their last campaign, finishing third and garnering some good reviews. Many of BATE’s players have played for the club for years and are also members of the Belorussian national team, so there is a chemistry about the side. They are lacking in flair, but BATE could cause problems for teams in this group. I’m picking Shakhtar last in this group because I don’t know how they will play while their home arena is being shelled by military forces. They have struggled at this stage before, and their title success was less dominant than years past. They also came in third in a very weak group last year. They have the talent to go through from this group, but it’s going to be hard with the political situation hanging over their heads. 

     1)      Athletic Bilbao

     2)      FC Porto

     3)      BATE Borisov

     4)      Shakhtar Donetsk

Premier League Preview

Manchester City were last season’s champions, which was expected throughout but required some slip ups, both literally and figuratively, from Liverpool to happen. Chelsea was close but just didn't have that cutting edge. There are seven contenders for this year’s title. Here is how I rank them:

Chelsea has the best team on paper. They have an experienced tactician now saddled with the team that he wants. The only thing in the balance is to see if Jose Mourinho still has his magic touch and is able to put the pieces together into one of his championship units. They are strong in every position – they even have two of the top goalkeepers in the world. Signings Filipe Luis, Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas fill the team’s voids from last season. Nemanja Matic will be eligible in the Champions League and will anchor the midfield with Fabregas and Marco Van Ginkel. The only question is their ability to mesh together – sometimes Chelsea would look very discombobulated and out-of-sync, especially against weak opposition. The Costa addition should help address the lack of goals from the forward position, and although the sale of Romelu Lukaku could wind up hurting the club in the long run, Chelsea looks well-rounded and deep. An injury to Costa or Matic would leave Chelsea the most exposed, but there are so many talented attacking players in the side to fill the void. If the squad is able to mesh, Chelsea will dominate the league.

Arsenal finally ended their trophy drought with last year’s FA Cup title, and followed it up with another victory in the Community Shield against Manchester City. They will have their issues in defense but their attacking options can cause anyone problems with both pace and finesse. Alexis Sanchez was the big signing, but Yaya Sanogo will be a key player for Arsenal. If he can emerge into a Premier League level striker, Arsenal will contend for the title. If he cannot, there will be games where Arsenal are missing that little extra firepower to take the title.

Defensively they have plenty of questions. The departure of Thomas Vermaelen means that Arsene Wenger has enough confidence in Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker to carry the squad. New captain Mikel Arteta will have to have one of his best seasons. At age 33, his best years could be behind him, but perhaps this could be the least asked of him, considering the talent surrounding him on the field. Arsenal haven’t been in a title race for years – this squad is finally close to the caliber needed to endure the long season. I expect good things from Arsenal, but they will need to play much better against the top teams in the league – an area where they were beaten heavily on multiple occasions last term.

Manchester City are the defending champions, and have retained the core of last year’s team. David Silva, one of their best players, has committed to the club long-term, signing a new five-year deal. City were fortunate to take last season’s trophy, but they have one of the top squads on the continent, and owners who certainly aren’t afraid to spend. City will look to be ambitious in Europe as well - their transition from a rising, rich club to an established superpower is finally complete. After City won their first title three years ago, there was a noticeable drop off during the following season. Their offensive weapons are plentiful and probably the best in the league, but despite signings of Bacary Sagna and Fernando to help the defense and holding midfield, I see their defense as a weak spot. Joe Hart has failed to convince during his years as City's #1 in goal, and Willy Caballero was terrible against Arsenal. City will score a ton of goals and should be right in the thick of it, but without someone stepping up in the defensive third, they will drop too many points.

Liverpool were last season’s surprise story. Brendan Rodgers has put together a very complete squad but lost his top player and goalscorer, Luis Suarez, to Barcelona. While the embattled Suarez’s departure will certainly help Liverpool off the field, his absence will be felt on it, and with no viable replacement signed this offseason, Liverpool will struggle to replicate their second-place finish. Dejan Lovren was a big signing, helping what was a beleaguered defense last season, but other signings, including two others from Southampton, will have less of an impact. I like the prospects of Adam Lallana but I don’t really see how he fits into the team. Liverpool will have a strong midfield but I still see weaknesses in defense and an attacked centered around Daniel Sturridge. He had a great season last year and has proven himself with the Reds, but overreliance on Sturridge, who was very erratic in his Chelsea days and is now without his strike partner, could be costly. Liverpool shouldn’t experience a drastic dropout, but I see a battle for a top-four place.Tottenham learned that losing your best player and replacing him with a few good ones usually doesn't work.

Manchester United are a popular bounce back candidate under new coach Louis Van Gaal. United have been impressive in the preseason, but I don’t see them reaching the top 4 this year. David Moyes mismanaged the club and was a major factor in the rapid descent of the club, but the players are not good enough and there weren’t enough big signings to overhaul the squad. The team that won the title two years ago was far too reliant on currently injured Dutchman Robin Van Persie, and there are a number of unproven players that Van Gaal will be forced to give a chance. He did a fantastic job with Holland, taking a team of youngsters to a third place finish in Brazil this summer, but the league season is a long grind, not a short sprint. Van Gaal will help develop some of the young talent and can certainly stop the bleeding from last year, but a quick jump back into the top four looks unlikely to me.

Everton’s signing of Romelu Lukaku completely changes the outlook on the season. Without Lukaku, they were without a bona fide striker and one of their top players from last season. With him, they should continue to be a dangerous side. Roberto Martinez has proven himself to be one of the best managers in the Premier League, and with Everton actually buying players after years of catching up with debt, a top four place is hardly out of the question. Everton has always been a show-me squad; I'm not going to predict them to finish in the top four until I see it. They play a very attractive style and their matches with Liverpool should be very intense, but I don't see the depth to crack the Champions League places. It should be another good campaign from Everton, and Martinez will continue building this squad for the future.

Tottenham took a huge step backwards last season. It began with Andre Villas-Boas, ended with Tim Sherwood, and was underwhelming throughout. Gareth Bale’s move to Real Madrid gave Daniel Levy a massive paycheck to spend on new players, which he did – but very few shone during the rocky season. Eric Lamela was the biggest underperformer, with his move from Roma a complete flop amid talks of him leaving the club after just one year. Mauricio Pochettino proved a success at Southampton and he could be the right man in North London. Spurs could prove to be very good this year but they don’t stack up well against the teams above them. They have more rebuilding to do and have had the least success in the transfer market. It will be interesting to see if Pochettino can end the club’s disappointing run, or if the new players will continue to struggle. Spurs and Everton are both very good sides, but the top three teams are so strong that it's going to be difficult to take a European place.

The best team defensively in any sport is often the one who wins. Chelsea had the best defensive record last season and their defense could be even better this season. I just see Arsenal and City dropping points because of their potential defensive issues. Regardless, it should be a tight race and I'm looking forward to the season starting this weekend.

Projected Top 7:

1)      Chelsea
2)      Arsenal
3)      Manchester City
4)      Liverpool
5)      Manchester United
6)      Everton
7)      Tottenham
Trivia: Who is the highest scoring active player in the English Premier League?

Last answer: Brazil and Italy. Brazil won both finals, in 1970 and 1994.

WORLD CUP - Saying Goodbye to Brazil & Final Preview

Everything seemed to be going to plan before Brazil faced Germany in the first semifinal.

Then, after a 7-1 beatdown, the hosts' hopes were smashed into tiny little pieces. So what happened?

Well, it seems as though Brazil coach Scolari went for an all-or-nothing strategy from the beginning, which on its own is just silly. He chose Bernard ahead of Willian which is understandable, but still a poor choice. Bernard had only played briefly in the tournament and did not pose much of a threat, whereas Willian has a year of Premier League experience under his belt. For the first few minutes, Brazil had the ball and controlled the game. But once they gave the ball up, it was, to be kind, a mess. The first goal they conceded was basic defending - David Luiz lost track of Muller, allowing him to tap it in from six yards out. How do you leave the opponents' leading scorer all alone?

The second goal was well worked by the Germans, but still showed Brazil's unwillingness to defend. Klose fired off a quick shot which Cesar saved, but no one picked up Klose for the rebound for him to tap in. Marcelo had kept Klose onside to begin with, then watched him shoot twice right in front of him.

From that point on, it was always going to be difficult, but Brazil simply gave up. Luiz, tearful at the end of the game, claimed that Brazil "had given everything, but didn't make it." That is just not true. They did not give everything, and while this Brazil team will always be haunted by the scoreline of the game, it is that attitude that is the most damning. Germany blew a four-goal lead to Sweden in a half-hour at home during qualifying; there was no reason to give up. Their defense was scrambling all over the place whenever Germany possessed the ball. Four of the five first half goals for Germany were tap ins. Honestly, if I didn't know the names of the teams or the stage of the game I would have thought that either this was a pro team against an amateur team or that Brazil was throwing the game. After the break they were better but still not hustling. Neuer made some good saves but Schurrle's two goals were more lazy defending by Dante and Luiz. The absence of Thiago Silva was going to matter much more than the storyline favorite Neymar, and while his absence alone did not cause the heavy defeat, it certainly played a major role. Dante had no clue, Luiz couldn't mark anyone and Maicon and Marcelo were constantly caught up the field and leaving their partners out to dry. The midfield was just as bad.

Everyone who reads this blog knows I picked Brazil, and have been saying so for about a year. They were out to erase memories of 1950, where their crushing 2-1 defeat to Uruguay left the nation shocked and saddened. They certainly erased those memories - they made more painful ones, which wasn't thought to be possible.

The biggest beneficiary to this Brazil debacle, other than the Germans and any people who dislike Brazil, is Luis Suarez. World Cups are remembered for the winners and the story lines, and while there have been nice stories like Costa Rica's run to the quarterfinals, the USA's advancement from a tough group, and rising star James Rodriguez, the biggest story line was the bite Suarez inflicted on Giorgio Chiellini's back. Now, that will fade to the background, as this will always be the World Cup where Brazil was humiliated. Suarez has moved on to Barcelona and can start again after his four month ban. Brazil can not.

The Netherlands - Argentina game was pretty dull. I was surprised the Dutch didn't try to attack more, and even more so when Louis Van Gaal used his final substitution to bring on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Even if Tim Krul couldn't replicate his performance against Costa Rica, he would at least have a psychological edge in the shootout. Van Gaal didn't have his team attack enough to justify not saving a substitution for Krul. Argentina were decent but lacked cutting edge. They did have a perfectly good goal by Gonzalo Higuain wrongly ruled out for offside. They kept a third straight clean sheet, and it's that type of defensive work that will be needed against the Germans.

The third place game should be interesting, but all of the focus is on the final. I think Brazil will play better but still lose to the Netherlands. The Dutch have performed well against Brazil and I expect the hosts to still be a bit shocked.

Germany - Argentina

A rematch of the 1986 and 1990 World Cup Finals, one won by West Germany and the other by Argentina. These two sides were probably the second and third favorites after Brazil at the start of the tournament. Germany has impressed throughout this summer's event - defensively controlling games through the midfield while also clinically finishing their opportunities. Argentina haven't been nearly as convincing, but five victories by a one-goal margin and the shootout victory have gotten them here.

At this point, Germany has to be a big favorite. There is a possibility of a let down after such a large victory, but Germany is clicking on all cylinders. They could have scored ten against Brazil and have played better in each of the last three games. Argentina will have fantastic support from their fans and Messi is always a threat.

I can see either side winning this game but Germany looks like the better side. After defeating Brazil, they have proved themselves as the best team in the world, and their midfield is dominant. I don't see Argentina's midfield being able to possess the ball for long stretches like they have in previous games. Argentina's hopes lie in their attacking players. Messi can make a play at any time, and even though he has not played well thus far, so can Aguero. Higuain will probably start up top but expect Aguero at some point. Their pace could cause some problems but I expect Germany to control the game.

Final Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0

Trivia: Germany and Argentina are meeting for a third time in the World Cup Final, the most matchups between any two sides. Who are the two teams that have played each other twice in World Cup Finals? (All other matchups have only happened once.)

Last post's answer was Asamoah Gyan, of Ghana. He has scored six goals in the World Cup, including one in this year's tournament.

WORLD CUP - Changes for Brazil & Semifinal Preview

Four powerhouses are in the semi finals. Hosts Brazil will face Germany on Tuesday, while the Netherlands play Argentina on Wednesday. A team from South America has yet to be eliminated by a non-South American opponent, and if Brazil and Argentina go through it will not happen during this tournament. These matchups are very tight and should be low scoring - the quarterfinals produced just five goals in the four games, with every game decided by a goal or less.

The story in the Brazilian media is the loss of Neymar due to a broken vertebrae. I think this loss should be downplayed. Neymar is Brazil's best attacker and most iconic player, but while Neymar is Brazil, Brazil is not Neymar. He has created the most chances of any player in the tournament thus far, but I do not see the jump down from his ability to Bernard or Willian, his likely replacements, as being steep. It also looks like Neymar's loss could provide Brazilian fans with a source of pride and motivation, as they have had little to be excited about thus far.

The big loss is the absence of Thiago Silva from Brazil's defense. Silva stabilizes the middle of that line and with the sometimes marauding David Luiz as his partner, he is the constant. He's also a fantastic defender and widely regarded as the best in the world. Dante is the likely replacement, and the Bayern man will have to be up to the task of stopping Thomas Muller.

Louis Van Gaal claimed he would have rather seen arch-rivals Belgium go through, and I believe him. Holland would much rather play a European team that they know after playing two CONCACAF sides and squeaking through on each occasion. It hasn't been easy in the knockout stage. Argentina made in five one-goal wins in a row and despite being called "ordinary" by Belgium manager Marc Wilmots, they are improving as this tournament moves forward.

Brazil – Germany

Joachim Low moved Philipp Lahm back to his natural right back position, and with Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield, Germany dominated France through the middle. I was disappointed with France’s lack of ambition throughout the game but was equally impressed with Germany’s defensive prowess. I thought their midfield might be a concern heading into this tournament but with Schweinsteiger looking much more healthy and Mats Hummels dominating the back line, this team has been sound in the defensive third. They have had some close calls but they look very difficult to break down, especially with Manuel Neuer in goal.

Brazil will be short their best attacking player but there are other options. If he is healthy, Willian should replace Neymar and Brazil should keep their same shape. Willian created the second-most chances for Chelsea this past season behind Eden Hazard and plays with a similar style. The other option would be to bring in Paulinho and play with three holding midfielders, but I think this is too defensive against a side that is already going to be tough to break down. Brazil needs flair and creativity. Dante will need to be sturdy and David Luiz, who has been excellent thus far, must show discipline.

This looks to me like the moment of truth for both of these sides. After playing in cruise control through their first four matches, Brazil finally appeared themselves against Colombia. I expect them to play with similar physicality against the Germans. Germany has played better to this point, but will face a raucous crowd in Belo Horizonte. Germany could be slightly better right now, but I am still going with the hosts. Fireworks could be in store, but Brazil typically take part in tight, low-scoring semifinal. Brazil, 1-0.

Netherlands – Argentina

The Dutch were dominant but were nearly knocked out by a feisty Costa Rica side. However, the difference in quality was obvious and their superior fitness was evident in the shootout. Tim Krul came in to stop two of the five penalties while guessing correctly each time. Louis Van Gaal can never be underestimated as a coach, and it was no surprise when he revealed that Krul had been his plan all along. Argentina has not been as clever, but their defense has been surprisingly stout en route to back-to-back 1-0 wins over European opponents. It was a workman-type performance against the Belgians, but Argentina never appeared uncomfortable and Lionel Messi has continued his stellar form into the knockout stages. Some of his long dribbling runs were mesmerizing and his initial play led to Gonzalo Higuain’s winner. He has lived up to his reputation as a one man show in this tournament.

I don’t see anything changing for Argentina. The loss of Angel Di Maria is important but hardly fatal – Argentina have plenty of attacking players and it looks as though Sergio Aguero will be fit again. Holland have been far less convincing and their young defense will be in for a tough day. The Dutch defeated Uruguay 3-2 at this stage in 2010 and if there's a game in the semifinals with some scoring, I would expect it to be this one. If they are to go through, Robin Van Persie has to play significantly better. I don't think he will, and home advantage will rule again. Argentina, 2-1.

I'm sticking with my original guess at the beginning of the tournament - a Brazil-Argentina final. What a wild one that would be.

Trivia: Name the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer that isn’t from South America or Europe. (Hint: He played in this summer’s World Cup)

Last week’s answer: Norway. Brazil is 0-2-2 against the Norwegians, losing their one World Cup meeting 2-1 in 1998.