2014 FIFA World Cup Qualifying & International Update

I haven’t checked in on any of the international qualifying games going on recently and it is really getting interesting. Some qualification phases have concluded and are awaiting a playoff, while others have only a few games remaining. It’s do-or-die time for teams like Mexico, Denmark, and England if they want to make the trip to Brazil next summer.

AFC (Asia)

Qualified: Australia (4th appearance), Iran (4th), Japan (5th), South Korea (9th)

Still in Contention: Jordan

Spots Available: 1

AFC, the Asian Football Confederation, finishes its qualifying phases early. The final phase consists of two groups, where the top two sides go through the World Cup and the third-place sides contest a play-off. Iran and South Korea qualified from Group A, Japan and Australia qualified from Group B, while Uzbekistan and Jordan qualified for the play-off, which Jordan won on 9-8 on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate score. Asia’s four qualifiers are good, but not great. Japan and South Korea are the strongest of the four, but they will both need to show signs of improvement to make any dent in Brazil. South Korea are the only Asian team to reach the semi-finals of the tournament when they did so, albeit controversially, as co-hosts in 2002.

Jordan now advances to the “intercontinental playoff” against the fifth place team from CONMEBOL (South America). This place right now belongs to Uruguay, but could also be Ecuador, Chile, or Colombia (although unlikely). Ugh. There’s no team there that Jordan has much of a shot against, and Uzbekistan would have had little hope either. The games are played on the field, not on paper, but it’s hard to see Asia having a fifth team in Brazil.  

CAF (Africa)

Qualified: None

Still in Contention: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Senegal

Spots Available: 5

CAF’s second round group stage concluded on Tuesday with eight of the top seeds advancing, while second-pot side Cape Verde nipped Tunisia to advance and fourth-pot minnows Ethiopia won Group A. The ten remaining teams are entered into a two-legged playoff, with the top five sides being seeded (according to FIFA ranking). The seeded sides for the third round will be Ivory Coast, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, and Cape Verde, and the draw takes place on September 16. The winners will advance to Brazil.

There are some strong teams in Africa, and although performance was not as high as anticipated in South Africa, there will be a few teams from CAF who can make some noise. Ivory Coast and Ghana have been the region’s powerhouses, while Algeria and Cameroon were impressive in the second round. Egypt are one of the region’s best teams, and have the leading goal scorer in FC Basel stud Mohamed Salah, but could be pitted against one of the top sides because of their weak performance over the last few years. I just hope they don’t get drawn against Algeria again because that will just be bedlam. Cape Verde and Ethiopia will be hoping to draw each other as neither side stands much of a chance against the other eight.

CONCACAF (North America / Caribbean)

Qualified: Costa Rica (4th), United States (10th)

Still in Contention: Honduras, Panama, Mexico, Jamaica (barely)

Spots Available: 2

Costa Rica and the United States clinched their spots in Brazil on Tuesday to leave one automatic qualifying place left, along with an intercontinental playoff spot against New Zealand for fourth place. Honduras are currently third with 11 points, Panama and Mexico are tied for fourth with 8 points (the sides are even on goal difference, Panama is ahead on goals scored), and Jamaica has just 4 points. Each team has two games remaining, with the most intriguing being Panama’s trip to Mexico City on October 11. Panama defeated Mexico twice during the Gold Cup and will only need a draw to give themselves a great opportunity to qualify ahead of the Mexicans when they host the United States on the final matchday.

CONCACAF is certainly not the strongest confederation, but it is definitely the tightest. Costa Rica leads the group in goals scored with just 11 in eight games, and their goal difference of +6 also tops the group. There is no dominant player here, particularly because of how disappointing Mexico have been. After Tuesday’s loss to the United States, it is now fair to look into the last time Mexico did not qualify for a World Cup. That year was 1982, where Honduras and El Salvador represented the confederation (although I’m not counting 1990, when Mexico was banned for fielding above-age players in youth matches). They have been downright pathetic, especially at home, where they have accumulated three goalless draws and a 2-1 loss to Honduras. Mexico has scored four goals in eight games. They need to turn it around quickly, and even changing the coach did not inspire better performances. If Mexico fails to beat Panama again, fans could be staring in the face a scenario they never imagined.

CONMEBOL (South America)

Qualified: Argentina (16th), Brazil (20th, hosts)

Still in Contention: Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela (barely)

Spots Available: 4

Typically the toughest-played qualification federation in the world, South America has been unusually tame this round, perhaps due to the absence of Brazil. The top four sides qualify for the World Cup while the fifth-place team plays in the aforementioned inter-continental playoff against Jordan. Argentina guaranteed themselves a top-four place and a trip to Brazil with Tuesday’s 5-2 win in Paraguay. With two matchdays remaining, Colombia has 26 points, Chile has 24 and Ecuador and Uruguay have 22 with Ecuador ahead on goal difference. Venezuela has 19 points, but have played one extra game and are six goals behind Uruguay in goal difference, FIFA’s first tiebreaker. They would need either Ecuador or Uruguay to lose both of their remaining matches, coupled with a sizeable win over Paraguay to help make up the massive goal difference. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, given Ecuador and Uruguay play each other, then Ecuador heads to on-fire Chile while Uruguay host Argentina. Ecuador in particular have been struggling, picking up just two points from their last four qualifiers. However, I think both sides are safe to reach a minimum of the playoff (fifth place). I don’t think Jordan stand much of a chance against a South American side, and we should see five South American teams in next year’s tournament.

CONMEBOL has typically been headlined by Argentina and Brazil, though Uruguay have been one of the world’s best teams over the last four years. Brazil are favorites to win the 2014 World Cup, and it’s hard to see them losing on home soil. I think Argentina and Uruguay are the only ones who even have a chance. Brazil destroyed Spain in the Confederations Cup Final over the summer, and although Germany look like a top contender from UEFA, they haven’t banished their youth enough to take out a giant like Brazil on this type of stage. Keep in mind, no team outside of South America has ever won on the continent’s soil, with Brazil winning two, Argentina one, and Uruguay one.

OFC (Oceania)

Qualified: None

Still in Contention: New Zealand

Spots Available: 1

OFC has been the weakest FIFA confederation by far since Australia decided to leave for AFC. It was weak before then, which is why Australia left, but it’s even worse now. Tahiti were unfortunately celebrated for their dismal showing in the Confederations Cup; they were praised for being the ultimate “minnow” and representing a tiny island that has never had a presence in world football. I respect their accomplishments but don’t warm to that type of story when it seriously degrades the overall quality of the game, as it resulted in a pathetic -23 goal difference over three games. Thankfully, New Zealand won the third round group and advanced to the intercontinental playoff with the 4th placed team from CONCACAF. New Zealand isn’t very good, but they have a far better chance than Jordan of reaching next summer’s finals. They will be rooting for Panama or Honduras instead of Mexico, but regardless of their opponent they will be underdogs to reach Brazil.

UEFA (Europe)

Qualified: Italy (18th), Netherlands (10th)

Still in Contention: Many

Spots Available: 11

UEFA gets the most berths at next year’s World Cup, as 13 of the 32 teams will be from Europe. The format is a nine-group stage where the winner of each group advances directly to Brazil. The best eight second-place teams participate in the playoffs, a two-legged home and away aggregate. Here is a brief overview of the groups and their current situations.

Playoff Note: There are nine groups, so there are nine second-place teams. One team cannot make the playoffs because nine is an odd number. The second-place teams have their own standings, and the last-place team is eliminated. There are only five teams in Group I, so points in the second-place standings are decided by removing the results against the last-place (6th) team in each group, which is typically a very bad team. This gives a better relative strength of the team’s performance in the group. Group B’s current second-placed team, Bulgaria, is currently the one left out, as two of their three wins are against sixth-placed Malta, so they are not counted. But there is plenty of time for those standings to change. It’s just something to keep in mind, as second-place is not a guarantee for the playoffs.

Group A: Belgium lead Croatia by five points with two matches remaining. The Belgians head to Croatia for their next match before hosting last-place Wales. Their only dropped points in qualifying were a 1-1 draw against the Croats. Even if Croatia beat them in October, it’s difficult to see Belgium losing a game at home when they will likely only require a point (unless Croatia can make up the goal difference). Croatia will have to try their luck in the playoffs.

Group B: Italy have qualified. Bulgaria, Denmark, Czech Republic and Armenia are separated by just four points. Bulgaria lead Denmark by a point and have the best goal difference, but Denmark are the better team and have a gift three points with a home match remaining against Malta. Armenia must be regretting their awful performance in a 1-0 home loss to the Maltese, which now leaves them in a must-win against Bulgaria in their next game. The Czechs also get to play Malta, but face a trip to Bulgaria in the last matchday. It’s a muddled foursome in Group B, and none of these teams are much better than the others, but I will take Denmark for second place. The game against Malta along with a home match against Italy (with the Italians already qualified) should see them gain six points. Denmark will need to win that game against Italy to have a chance of avoiding the last-place second-place team tag. I don’t think Bulgaria wins their final two games. Two of their three wins were against Malta and travelling to Armenia will not be easy.

Group C: Germany lead the group with 22 points, while Sweden are in second with 17 and Austria have 14. Ireland are still technically alive but they would need every result to go their way, including winning in Germany in their next game. Not happening. The Austrians, who have a good young team, have made this group interesting by defeating the Irish to pull three points behind the Swedes. The kicker – the next game pits Austria against Sweden in Solna. If the Swedes can avoid losing at home, they face Germany, who will most likely be already qualified, in their last game. Austria goes to the Faroe Islands, who have lost all eight of their games. This is a must-not-lose for Sweden, or they can forget about the playoffs. They have not conceded a goal yet at home, and Austria have taken just two points from three away games, but this will be a fun one to watch. Sweden would love to clinch their playoff spot with a win to avoid the drama, and they should be able to do so.

Group D: Netherlands have qualified. Hungary are second with 14 points, with Turkey and Romania one point behind (Turkey is ahead on goal difference). Turkey has the most momentum due to their recent performances and have a better side than the other two teams, but they both have a free three points waiting against Andorra. To their credit, Andorra have been better than past years, but Hungary and Romania will beat them to complete another 0-for-10 for the tiny Iberian country. Romania have the best chance to reach the playoffs, as their other game is against Estonia at home. Turkey must travel to Estonia prior to hosting the Dutch, who face the Hungarians beforehand. If Hungary can win in Holland, it is all over, but any other result leaves the door open for the Turks and Romanians. I’m going to pick Romania for second, as the other two sides will have trouble defeating the Dutch, whose only dropped points were a bizarre 2-2 draw in Estonia. Go figure.

Group E: Group E is a mess. Switzerland are in first place with 18 points, Iceland is in second with 13, Slovenia has 12, Norway has 11, and Albania has 10. Ugh. This group was by far the weakest from the draw and it’s been very competitive, albeit at a lower quality level than many of the other groups. The Swiss are all-but in; they have the best team and are at least eight goals ahead on goal difference versus any other team in the group. Naturally I’d look to who plays Cyprus, the only team not in contention in the group, but the one win they had was against second-placed Iceland and their draw was against the Swiss. So there’s no telling what’s going to happen here. I think it will be between Iceland and Slovenia, and I’m going to go with the worse team here in Iceland. They face Cyprus at home first, giving themselves a great opportunity to open a gap with the other sides before heading to Norway. Slovenia are more experienced but first face Norway, who have been in good form away from home, before heading to Switzerland. It really is anyone’s guess though and I don’t expect any of these teams to reach the World Cup finals through the playoffs.

Group F:  Russia lead the group with 18 points, Portugal has 17, and Israel are clinging on with 12 points. It was a shame to see Israel draw 1-1 with Azerbaijan at home, as a victory would have given them 14 points, just a win behind the Portuguese. With the next game being between the two sides in Portugal, Israel could have put serious pressure on Ronaldo & crew, who always seem to make things harder from themselves in qualifying. Instead, the game is essentially meaningless, as even if Portugal lose they host Luxembourg, who they will beat at home. Oh well. Russia have the group wrapped up and will be heading to Brazil. Despite being just one point ahead, the Russians play away to both Azerbaijan and Luxembourg. Dropping points and falling into the playoff positions is not impossible, especially considering neither side is a complete walkover and Russia lost 1-0 at Northern Ireland. I still expect them to win the group with the Portuguese going to the playoffs again.

Group G: One of the easiest groups to decipher at this point is Group G. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece are joint-top with 19 points, but the Bosnians are +20 on goal difference while the Greeks are just +5. Both sides face last-place Liechtenstein; Bosnia heads to Lithuania while Greece hosts Slovakia. These teams have been dominant in group play, far exceeding expectations from a consistency point of view. Bosnia’s one slip up was a 1-0 home loss against Slovakia, which they avenged on Tuesday with a 2-1 come-from-behind win. Greece’s one loss was in Bosnia, and each team’s draw was against each other. The game in Lithuania is tricky, but Bosnia look like they will be headed to their first ever World Cup finals, and will be a fun team to watch when they are there. Greece looks playoff bound again, and will be one of the toughest teams to oust.

Group H: This group was always going to be fun and it has not disappointed. England are on top of the group with 16 points, Ukraine and Montenegro are tied with 15 (Ukraine are head on goal difference) and Poland are still alive with 13. Ukraine and Montenegro have a huge advantage as they play San Marino and Moldova, respectively. San Marino is the worst team in UEFA (-42 goal difference) and Moldova is in the bottom-tier. Those should be three points a piece for those sides, moving them up to 18. England host Montenegro and then Poland, who travel to Ukraine for their other game.

It’s going to be wild. Montenegro have been a thorn in England’s side for the last few years in qualifying, and they are not an easy side to defeat. England’s +22 goal difference and record of four wins and four draws is extremely deceiving. Their four wins came against Moldova and San Marino by the count of: 22-0. There’s the +22. Their four draws against Montenegro, Poland, and Ukraine twice have been negative and uninspiring. If Poland had not drawn 1-1 with Moldova there would be even more pressure. This team has plenty to prove to itself and to the rest of the world, and they can do so by beating the Montenegrins. But will they? It would be surprising to see England not at least qualify for the playoffs, but they really should win this group. Two home matches in these circumstances are must-wins. The other spot rides on the Ukraine-Poland game. If the Ukrainians win, they are assured a spot in the playoffs at minimum, a draw would leave results out of their hands, while a loss would give the Poles a huge opportunity to progress to the playoffs.

The most interesting scenario would be a draw between England and Montenegro and a Polish victory over Ukraine. That would leave England with 17 points, Poland and Montenegro with 16, and Ukraine with 15. Considering Montenegro and Ukraine will most likely win their final games respectively, we can assume that would put Montenegro at 19 points and Ukraine at 18. England would need a win against the Poles to win the group and avoid the playoffs. A draw also might not be good enough if the Ukrainians make up the goal difference, which is possible given their 9-0 hammering of San Marino in Lviv (they are currently seven goals behind). But the Poles could also advance to Brazil with a win in England, giving them 19 points (they currently have a better goal difference than Montenegro). Hypothetically, this could be crazy.

Group I: Spain are going to Brazil. They are level on points with France but have a game in hand and both are home against vastly inferior opposition. They also lead the French on goal difference. They would need to draw or lose both games and France would have to beat Finland. They will beat the Finns, but it will only be good enough for a playoff spot.

European teams have won the last two World Cups and Spain have won the last three major tournaments involving European teams. At this point, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy are just as good. It will be interesting to see how these sides do in a hostile environment – Spain already showed a weaker resolve when faced with Brazilian noise in their ears. Belgium is a quiet dark horse in this tournament; they are very young but one of the most talented teams in the world. They have a more experienced defense, a good goalkeeper, and a host of attacking players. Look out for the Belgians. I also think Bosnia will be fun to watch if they qualify. Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic have torn up qualifying and the ability to score goals is far more important on the international stage than the club stage given the defense tactics employed in the international game. They won’t make it too far because of inexperience but will certainly entertain fans.

Analyzing the “Big 6”

When Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003, it created what was called the “Big 4” of English football – Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. When Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan purchased Manchester City, the “Big 4” turned into a “Big 3”, but evolved back into a “Big 4”, with City taking Liverpool’s place. This summer, I think we will see the formation of a new “Big 6” for at least the next few years. There was a risk of a return to the “Big 3”, as Arsenal have not looked like title contenders recently, but their spending and the emergence of Tottenham and Liverpool should create a close competition at the top of the Premier League. United, City and Chelsea are on a bit of a higher level than the other three clubs, but I expect it to be very tight at the top.

• Arsenal have been slowly declining since 2009 and have gone eight trophy-less years under Arsene Wenger, but the signing of Mesut Ozil has turned around what has been a dismal transfer policy and reignited the club’s trophy hopes. After years of failed signings and big-money departures with no replacements, Arsenal have finally made a splash in the transfer market. Ozil was expensive, but he is “the best #10 in the world” by Mourinho’s standards, and touted highly by many observers. He was the statement signing they needed.

• Tottenham have continuously tried to break into the Champions League places but have only succeeded in doing so once (although they did come in fourth in 2011-2012). Despite losing Gareth Bale to Real Madrid, Tottenham’s team is arguably better now, as new signings Paulinho, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen should have a sizeable impact. Roberto Soldado is already having an impact with two goals in his first three Premier League games.

• Liverpool’s signings are providing the best results at the time being, as they sit atop the Premier League with three wins from three. Daniel Sturridge has been brilliant since his arrival from Chelsea, and while I don’t expect his goal-scoring form to continue, he is the type of player who can be a danger to score at any time. Mamadou Sakho was another good signing and the acquisition of Victor Moses on loan could create a dangerous wing partnership with young star Raheem Sterling. Liverpool didn’t hit all of their transfer targets but are certainly stronger than last year’s team that finished seventh. The Reds haven’t finished higher than sixth for the past four seasons and will be desperate to break back into the Champions League places.

With the transfer window now closed, and no real other contenders for a top-six place, I can give a reasonable prediction about each team’s year-end place in the league.

Manchester United

Current Status: Worrying

There’s no one who would like to see United have a Liverpool-esque fallout more than me, but I think many people are hitting the panic button on this team too early. The squad is largely the same as last year’s, which won twenty-eight Premier League games to win the league by eleven points. However, there was always going to be a huge impact when Sir Alex Ferguson decided to retire, and despite David Moyes being a justifiable replacement, the club is going to undergo an inevitable dip. This was already illustrated during the transfer window when United seemed to have a new target to chase every week, and did not acquire a single one until they escaped with Marouane Fellaini (whom they overpaid for). Moyes did manage to keep a hold of Wayne Rooney, and did not lose any other key members of the squad, but it is very concerning that they did not get any of their early targets. Thinking United would fall too far would be naïve; it just does not look promising for an aging team with a manager who is new to the big stage. Their Champions League group is a tricky one as well.

Projection: Third

Manchester City

Current Status: Trending Upwards

Things are looking like they are falling into place this season for Manchester City. Manuel Pellegrini did a great job strengthening the team and they finally don’t have a “Group of Death” in the Champions League. Big money signings Fernandinho and Stevan Jovetic will add to the team’s enormous depth, and Jesus Navas will fit nicely into a wing role. Alvaro Negredo has already scored twice but I don’t see him having too big of an impact, and Martin DeMichelis is old. But getting rid of Carlos Tevez and Kolo Toure will also help the team, although they could have signed another defender. They will have to play Bayern in the group stage, and I warn them to be wary of CSKA, but they should find themselves in the knockout stage of the UCL for the first time this season. City have a deep squad and have finished in the top three in the Premier League the past three seasons, but I expect their possible European run to have an impact on their domestic durability. They are also looking very sloppy in their own third of the field, which Pellegrini needs to fix immediately. City will be in the mix for the whole season, but their strong odds of progressing in the Champions League could actually hurt their domestic season.

Projection: Second

Chelsea

Current Status: Elite

Now before I have to hear anything about being biased, I would ask everyone to take a look at what Chelsea did this offseason. They brought back mutually beloved manager Jose Mourinho, who is unquestionably the best man for the post, while adding Andre Schurrle, Marco Van Ginkel, Willian, and Samuel Eto’o. They also received Kevin De Bruyne back from loan. Mourinho was able to get Victor Moses and Romelu Lukaku out on loan instead of holding them on the bench, while offloading older players Yossi Benayoun and Flourent Malouda. The team had needs at manager, striker, holding midfielder, and attacking midfielder this offseason. All of these needs were addressed. It is arguable that the defense is still a bit weak, but Chelsea have a team built to win trophies. They had the third best defensive record in the Premier League last season, and Mourinho is known for his tactical drilling in that end of the field, so there is no reason to expect worse. There isn’t any coming together needed like City or Tottenham or any major regime change like United – it is simply the reinforcement of the existing blueprint with a manager and players who fit the system. This team can compete with anyone, and the stability Mourinho brings to the volatile club is what gives them the edge in the Premier League this season.

Projection: First

Arsenal

Current Status: Optimistic

For the first time in years, Arsenal fans watched the transfer window end with something to be cheery about. Whatever your rating of Ozil might be, it has to be high, and he not only helps the team on the field, but also put a much needed support under the club’s ailing transfer policy. If the Ozil signing helps Arsenal’s fortunes greatly this season, then top-tier players will be attracted to the club again. This is a sizeable task though – Ozil is an elite player but his position, the No. 10 role, was not a need for the Gunners. They still possess just an above-average goalie in Wojciech Szczesny and a front-line starved for depth. Wenger’s plans to sell Nicklas Bendtner came to a halt this summer when Lukas Podolski and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain picked up injuries, leaving Bendtner as the only forward player behind Olivier Giroud. Giroud has been improving, but has not established himself as a top-level striker yet and has no competition for his place. Gervinho left this summer, and although he will not be missed much, the return of Mathieu Flamini as Arsenal’s only other major signing is hardly inspirational. I commend Arsenal for acquiring Ozil, because without him they had little chance of progressing through their difficult group in the Champions League, or finishing in the top four in England. His impact will only be seen over time, and my fear is he could add to Arsenal’s tendency to dissect teams without scoring goals. It’s going to be tight to secure a Champions League place, but Arsenal fans must be optimistic about Wenger’s rare splash.

Projection: Fourth

Tottenham Hotspur

Current Status:  In Transition

The Gareth Bale saga consumed most of Tottenham’s summer, but I can barely have any sympathy – we all knew he was going to leave and it is largely Daniel Levy’s fault for dragging out the process all summer. No team wants to lose a player like Bale but the exorbitant sum they received for him will make this team better as a whole. I mentioned the big signings above – they also brought in defender Vlad Chiriches, midfielder Etienne Capoue, and midfielder Nacer Chadli to add even more depth. The one sale I don’t understand is Steven Caulker, who Spurs sold to Cardiff. Why sell a 21-year old defender to another Premier League side when you lack the depth in that area? Mysterious to me, and they’d better hope Jan Vertonghen doesn’t go down with an injury. As a whole, this team looks like it could be really good, but it always takes time to put a team together with so many new signings. It will be very tight for Champions League places, but Spurs look like they will fall a little short again. If it begins to come together, this team will bea title contender next season.  

Projection: Fifth

Liverpool

Current Status: Overachieving

Liverpool have struggled for the past four years and are looking at this campaign as a make-or-break one for Brendan Rodgers. It is off to the best possible start, as three 1-0 victories have given them a nice boost to start the season. The signing of Sakho was huge, as was the loan pickup of Aly Cissokho from Valencia. Getting rid of Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing is also a good sign, as those players struggled mightily during their Liverpool careers. I don’t believe this success is sustainable. I like how Liverpool boosted their defense and brought in Simon Mignolet to be their #1 in goal, but I don’t think the midfield play is going to be strong enough to contend with the five sides mentioned above. They were twelve points behind fourth place last year and breaching the top three looks very unlikely. Luis Suarez’s return from suspension should bring a boost to the side, especially if he can partner up with Sturridge. This team’s problem has been finishing chances, so two goal scorers on the field could see the Reds have a breakthrough season. I’m still at the stage where I have to see it to believe it. Liverpool, like Spurs, could wind up in a Champions League spot, but look just a bit weaker than their rivals at this point.

Projection: Sixth

2013-14 Champions League Group Stage Preview

Jimmy’s Soccer Weekly is back with an extensive preview of this year’s Champions League group stage. Oddsmakers’ favorites for this year’s competition are Barcelona. The addition of Neymar makes Barcelona a nightmare to try and defend against, especially considering how well they keep possession. However, I don’t consider the Spanish side to be strong favorites at this point, as their defense is substandard and the midfield players are starting to show their age. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Chelsea, PSG and Juventus are only slightly behind. Manchester United, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid are also contenders, and AC Milan are my dark horse contenders to make the semi-finals. A little Balotelli can go a long way. If I had to choose a winner, I would pick PSG. If they can bring everything together they are a scary team to face.

Group A

Participants: Manchester United (ENG, 1st), Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR, 1st), Bayer Leverkusen (GER, 3rd), Real Sociedad (ESP, 4th)

Group A presents an interesting challenge for perennial knockout stage contestant Manchester United. Shakhtar have won the Ukrainian Premier League each of the past four seasons, as well as seven of the past nine. They also qualified for last season’s knockout stage by edging out Chelsea in a group that included Juventus and FC Nordsjaelland. Bayer came in third place in a difficult Bundesliga and have started off their campaign this season with three wins from three. Sociedad look very similar to last year’s Malaga team; they are not a well-known commodity but possess a number of high-quality players, as they showcased in their easy 4-0 win over Lyon in qualifying.

United have had trouble with Spanish teams in this competition and Real Sociedad’s pot 4 ranking and lack of experience do not play as much of a role as many think. United are the strongest squad in this group and I expect them to win it, but the games will be very tight. This is one of the tougher groups they have been given over the past few years, and they must play very well to go through. Do not anticipate any team in this group winning more than three games. I like Real to come in second and slightly edge Shakhtar. Shakhtar lost Fernandinho and Henrikh Mkhitaryan this summer, but brought in four Brazilians, incuding young star Bernard from Atletico Miniero. They will be very tough to beat, especially in Donetsk. The Spanish side are a sleeper in this tournament and if they can overcome their general shortage of experience, they will be a dangerous team. Bayer will be competitive but still resemble a work in progress. They will struggle on their travels.

Prediction: 1) Manchester United 2) Real Sociedad 3) Shakhtar Donetsk 4) Bayer Leverkusen

Group B

Participants: Real Madrid (ESP, 2nd), Juventus (ITA, 1st), Galatasaray (TUR, 1st), FC Copenhagen (DEN, 1st)

Real Madrid must have been horrified to see Juventus pop up from Pot 2, and Galatasaray is no cakewalk either. All three sides were in the last eight of last year’s competition and will fight closely for the two spots in the knockout stage. Copenhagen typically play better than expected and even qualified for the knockout stages a few years ago but their odds are very long in this group. The top three sides possess a wealth of experience that the Danish side will have trouble suppressing.

With the depth and talent in their squad, Real Madrid will not accept anything less than a knockout stage appearance. I think Juventus are just as good, and can frustrate Real in the final third. If Real do not show the tactical discipline they often displayed in Europe under Jose Mourinho, they could lose top spot in this group to the Italians. The top spot often avoids some of the stronger teams in the round of 16, and both sides will be desperate to take it. Galatasaray are a good team but they look just a bit short here. They were beaten rather routinely by Real in last year’s knockout stage and Juventus are just as tough. They will not be an easy out, especially at home, but they would need to be exceptional to escape this group. Copenhagen have one of the worst draws in the tournament. There is no safe haven in this group at all, and while they are far from the worst team in the tournament, the Danes could wind up with one of the worst goal differences of the group stage.

Prediction: 1) Real Madrid 2) Juventus 3) Galatasaray 4) FC Copenhagen

Group C

Participants: Benfica (POR, 2nd), Paris Saint-Germain (FRA, 1st), Olympiakos (GRE, 1st), Anderlecht (BEL, 1st)

Group C is not the most attractive group, but big-spending PSG will be very happy with this draw. Benfica have been strong for the past few years but have consistently been in the grade just below elite. Olympiakos have dominated Greece, which has been an unknown entity the past few years due to the financial plights of other big clubs in the country. The Piraeus side lack any real competition outside of their games on the continent. Anderlecht are the minnows of the group but don’t count the Belgians completely out.

PSG should breeze through this group – travelling to Portugal and the long ride to Greece will not be as straightforward but they are simply on a different level than their opponents. The signing of Edinson Cavani has made a team that lost on away goals in last year’s quarterfinals an immediate trophy contender. This team should go a long way in this competition. On the other hand, second place will be very closely fought for. I give Benfica the edge over Olympiakos because of their superior attacking play. Benfica have made the Estadio da Luz a stronghold in recent years, and the Portuguese should see their way through. I don’t expect it to be pretty – the bottom three sides will likely win two games each at a maximum. Anderlecht haven’t shown much to suggest they can take enough points to head through, but they are one of the better Pot 4 sides and will give the other teams trouble in Belgium.

Prediction: 1) Paris Saint-Germain 2) Benfica 3) Olympiakos 4) Anderlecht

Group D

Participants: Bayern Munich (GER, 1st), CSKA Moscow (RUS, 1st), Manchester City (ENG, 2nd), Viktoria Plzen (CZE, 1st)

Defending champions Bayern Munich are stuck facing high-powered Manchester City in the group stage, while also facing a difficult trip to Russia champions CSKA Moscow and an interesting minnow in Czech champions Viktoria Plzen. City are stuck in Pot 3 after poor displays in Europe the past two years. Last year they were especially awful, failing to win any of their six games and earning just three points. CSKA are the spoiler in this group – this team has been flying under the radar for a long time and no team likes travelling to Moscow to play on the artificial surface. Plzen played in this competition two years ago but were given little chance, as they were drawn alongside Barcelona, AC Milan, and BATE Borisov. The odds here are not much greater but the increased experience should help their results this year.

Bayern are adjusting to the coaching style of Pep Guardiola and still look like they need work. Last year they were utterly dominant, and to progress from this group they will need to be on that level. City must advance in Europe to avoid a crisis. They have crashed out early in their two seasons and came in last in the group this past year. City have grown up a bit but there is still much to be desired, but they avoided a group of death this year and should make it through. CSKA will not be given much of a chance, but this team is very underrated and I could see them knocking City out. This is a solid team, and if City do not sort out their defensive issues, they will be staring at another early exit. Plzen are a decent side but they will only have a chance to take points at home. Even there, they will only come up with one or two.

Prediction: 1) Bayern Munich 2) Manchester City 3) CSKA Moscow 4) Viktoria Plzen

Group E

Participants: Chelsea (ENG, 3rd), Schalke (GER, 4th), FC Basel (SUI, 1st), Steaua Bucharest (ROU, 1st)

Chelsea received the dream draw of any of the teams in Pot 1, as Schalke, Basel and Steaua don’t pose too much of a threat. Chelsea eliminated Steaua in last year’s Europa League title run despite losing in Romania, and also took out Basel in the semi-finals. Schalke were arguably the weakest team in Pot 2 and did not resemble a strong contender in the playoffs against PAOK. Basel have been playing attractive football the past few years and it is good to see them back in the Champions League. Steaua are an interesting team – they are not at the level of the Romanian powerhouse in the 80’s, but Bucharest will not be a fun place to travel.

Chelsea should win this group easily. They’ve demonstrated they are a better side than Basel and Steaua, and Schalke are not much stronger, if they are at all. Mourinho has led his teams to four consecutive semi-finals or further, and Chelsea will be a contender for his fifth. Second place is up in the air – Basel are my favorites despite being the Pot 3 side, as their style could give Schalke and Steaua a lot of trouble. I am probably undervaluing Schalke’s depth, but they have been terrible to start the season and aren’t going to provide any “big club” fear factor to these teams. I could see any of these three qualifying from the group with Chelsea, but the Swiss side are the most likely.

Prediction: 1) Chelsea 2) FC Basel 3) Schalke 4) Steaua Bucharest

Group F

Participants: Arsenal (ENG, 4th), Marseille (FRA, 2nd), Borussia Dortmund (GER, 2nd), Napoli (ITA, 2nd)

Arsenal were handed a place in the group of death as they drew the toughest teams in Pots 3 and 4 in Dortmund and Napoli. Marseille are no slouch either after last year’s second place finish in Ligue 1. Dortmund return after last year’s run to the title game, while Napoli recorded their best ever finish in Serie A, 2nd place behind Juventus.

Everyone keeps expecting the world to cave in at Arsenal, but Arsene Wenger continues to keep his head steady and run the club the same way. Yeah, the club haven’t won anything in eight years but Wenger always has his side in the Champions League and always gets them into the knockout stage. It’s difficult to tell sometimes what you are going to get with Arsenal, but their European play has often overshadowed domestic worries in the early stages of the competition.

This, however, is not what the Gunners were looking for, as they find themselves in a group where you can argue they are the worst team. It’s not extreme at all. Dortmund are last year’s runners up, and despite losing Gotze and enduring the Lewandowski saga, they look just as strong. This team is one of the most exciting to watch on the continent. Napoli was the one side no team from Pot 1 wanted to see, as their low UEFA coefficient speaks nothing of their true quality. Marseille finished second in an improving French league and are off to another good start this year. So, this is far from ideal. I don’t see a City-like disaster occurring, but without any purchases, Arsenal are not leaving this group. Napoli could take it – they are very tough at home and Dortmund might be focusing a bit more domestically this year. The rivalry with Bayern is raging more than ever. But really, there is no scenario in this group too difficult to envision. Every game will be one to watch.

Prediction: 1) Napoli 2) Borussia Dortmund 3) Arsenal 4) Marseille

Group G

Participants: FC Porto (POR, 1st), Atletico Madrid (ESP, 3rd), Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS, 2nd), Austria Vienna (AUT, 1st)

Group G is the least flashy of this year’s draw, but presents an interesting mix. FC Porto are the favorites from Pot 1, but Atletico had a breakthrough season last year, finishing 3rd in La Liga. Despite losing Falcao, Atletico should be an attractive side this year. Zenit have been strong for the past few years too, and a young side is starting to evolve into a more consistent team. Austria Vienna are the competition’s minnows, but this is a favorable draw for them. None of these sides will blow away the Austrians and with the right tactical adjustments, they may just have a chance.

This group reminds me quite a bit of Group G two years ago, which unknown Pot 4 minnows APOEL won their group when facing Porto, Zenit, and Shakhtar. Vienna have a similar task here, and while I don’t expect much from them, the opportunity is there. Atletico are a better side than Shakhtar was and will be favorites to win the group, but they will not be too pleased with these opponents. Porto won the Portuguese league again last year and are always tough at home. Zenit added some experience to their squad this offseason and have consistently underachieved at this level. Is this their year to break out? I don’t see it at this point, and unless Porto lose a couple of players in the transfer window they should be through.

Prediction: 1) Atletico Madrid 2) FC Porto 3) Zenit St. Petersburg 4) Austria Vienna

Group H

Participants: FC Barcelona (ESP, 1st), AC Milan (ITA, 3rd), Ajax (NED, 1st), Celtic (SCO, 1st)

Group H features sides very familiar with each other. This group features four clubs who have all won the European Cup. Barcelona and AC Milan will meet for the seventh and eighth times in the last three years, while Celtic and Barcelona meet in the group stage for the second consecutive year. Despite the historic legacies of all four clubs, it will likely be Ajax and Celtic left fighting for scraps in this group.

I know, what about Celtic’s play against Barcelona last year? It can’t be ignored, as they narrowly lost 2-1 on an injury-time goal at the Nou Camp and beat Catalans 2-1 at Celtic Park. I watched those games in delight and the atmosphere was magical at Celtic Park. However, they sold Victor Wanyama and Gary Hooper this offseason and were very unimpressive in qualifying. Wins are wins, and the dramatic comeback against Shakhter Karagandy shook Celtic Park to its foundation, but I can’t see a repeat performance against Barcelona. The quality isn’t there this year and the Scottish league is not going to keep them sharp. Ajax have been handed tough groups in recent years and this is another one you can’t really see them progressing from. Milan and Barcelona will attract all of the attention in this group, and as shown last year, if you forget about the lower seeded teams, they can beat you. But expect the two rivals to march through together.  

Prediction: 1) FC Barcelona 2) AC Milan 3) Ajax 4) Celtic