I will be moving about quite a bit the next few days, so instead of doing a post for each day of matches in the Champions League, I am forced to do one for the entire matchday. I'll make sure this post is twice as good as any of my single-day posts. Matchday 5 has a number of good matchups, and many teams have the opportunity to clinch their place in the knockout stage. Real Madrid and Barcelona are the only teams to have clinched a place in the next round, with Real doing it through four wins out of four, and a matchup with Dinamo Zagreb tomorrow should not harm their perfect record. There are some key games I would like to focus on over the next few days.
Wed. - AC Milan - Barcelona: I figured I'd start with the game with the least meaning, as Barcelona has already clinched its spot while Milan need just a point from their final two games to be sure. However, this high-powered matchup features two of the top contenders for the final in May. The reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw in Barcelona, with both sides playing at a very high level. Barcelona are definitely favorites, but Milan have enjoyed some success against the Spanish giants in the past. If Milan are able to hold Barcelona off early and not allow the Spaniards to play their possession game, we could have a very interesting contest. If Barcelona score early, the quality of the match could really suffer. I expect Milan to put together a good showing but another draw is probably in the cards.
Tues. - Napoli - Manchester City: Napoli trail Manchester City by two points in Group A and can take control of their campaign with a win over the Citizens. City have been in amazing form of late, with success domestically and now in Europe after a bit of a slow start. Napoli played a very strong game against City on Matchday 1, looking very threatening on the counter. They would have snatched all three points if not for a Kolarov free kick late in the second half. Napoli do need a win here though, so their despite their tactics being effective in Manchester, they may need to change the pace to go for a goal. City have simply been fantastic, and with the depth and experience in their squad, it is difficult not to consider the side contenders for every competition they are in. Napoli must not be overaggressive, as City have far too many attacking options to leave a side unpunished. Against the popular belief, I do think Napoli gets something out of this game - but a draw is more likely than a win. Even with all of the attacking players, Roberto Mancini has the ability to play a very defensive side in order to gain a draw, which is really all that City should need to go through,
Wed. - Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: Who would've thought this one could decide the winner of Group G? APOEL lead the group with eight points while Zenit are just a point behind after the first four matches. APOEL defeated Zenit 2-1 on the first day of matches, starting their great run of form in Europe which still has not met defeat. Since that match, Zenit have won two and drawn one in their other three matches, defeating Porto and Shakhtar at home while drawing the Ukrainians away. Despite how well they are playing, APOEL will be the underdog in every game they play this year because of the country they are from. This is a difficult match as well - Zenit will be looking to avenge the earlier defeat, plus a win would send the Russians top of the group and leaving them able to qualify with as little as a narrow loss in their final game. However, I cannot pick against the Cypriots after they have played so well in the competition. If they could gain a draw in Porto, why not here? If they are able to score against Zenit they should be able to gain at least a draw.
Wed. - Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund's campaign has sprung to life after a 3-1 win over Olympiakos, leaving the Germans three points behind Marseille and four behind leaders Arsenal. Arsenal are back on form, looking strong domestically and in Europe over the past month, putting away any fears of a crisis at the club. Dortmund will play to win here, which should open up the match and create an interesting, free-flowing game. Dortmund are full of confidence following a win in Munich over Bayern on Sunday, and will look to push forward early and gain a stranglehold on the game. Arsenal do not need much more than a point from this game, but Arsenal never play defensively and will look to hit Dortmund on the break if they push too many men forward. It will be a clash of style and one that could end in stalemate if Dortmund do not allow themselves to be torn apart by Robin Van Persie.
Well, in the four games I just featured, I realized I predicted four draws. Let's hope they are interesting draws and not 0-0 every game like Serie A. There are some games with heavy favorites but quite a few that could go either way. Here are my full picks for Matchday 5:
CSKA Moscow - Lille: DRAW
Bayern Munich - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Lyon - Ajax Amsterdam: HOME WIN
Manchester United - Benfica: HOME WIN
Napoli - Manchester City: DRAW
Otelul - FC Basel: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - Inter Milan: DRAW
Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: DRAW
BATE Borisov - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN
AC Milan - Barcelona: DRAW
Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: DRAW
Bayer Leverkusen - Chelsea: DRAW
Marseille - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Shakhtar Donetsk - FC Porto: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Monday, November 21, 2011
Chelsea has the Blues
This weekend marked Chelsea's third loss in four Premier League games, which has caused a general panic throughout west London. As a fan, this loss was particularly disheartening because the opposition was not that strong. A loss at Old Trafford is forgivable, and a loss away to QPR while playing with nine men could also be written off. Even the recent loss to Arsenal had positives in it, despite the awful defending. But this loss against a Liverpool team that isn't very good, and did not play particularly well, raises some questions about the Chelsea team going forward. The movement in the first half was just slow. There was no pace in the buildup whatsoever, and regardless of who you are playing in the Premier League, you are not going to score with that type of pace. The two goals conceded were both sloppy, and isolated from any real Liverpool pressure. The game was generally absent of any type of sustained pressure, although Chelsea did have times where they held Liverpool back. But Liverpool's first goal came on general sloppy play at the back, with most of the blame falling on John Obi Mikel, who did not look like a Premier League player once during his forty-five minutes on the pitch. The second goal was created from a pretty piece of play from Charlie Adam, but Ashley Cole is badly beaten by a right-back while the rest of team watched. I don't understand the lethargic play - Chelsea have not been overrun by fixtures at this point in the season so they should still be fresh. Is it the age issue many commentators continue to mention? Who knows, but the squad still need to regroup quite a bit after these last two defeats. For Liverpool, this is a step in the right direction, as they were able to grind out the win. The Reds did do something they have often failed to do - take their chances when they arose. Kuyt was guilty of scuffing a shot well wide in the second half, but other than that, Liverpool had two chances and took them both. There still is much to be desired, because the midfield play is still below par. But to win on a day in which Luis Suarez was completely ineffective is a strong sign for Liverpool moving forward.
That result leaves Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal all level on points, but Spurs do have two games in hand. The third and fourth Champions League spots are wide open, as the Manchester clubs have taken a hold of the first two spots. Newcastle finally dropped their first game of the season, falling 3-1 to Manchester City. This is not a bad setback for Newcastle, but it could be the start of a plummet down the table. The most impressive team of the weekend looked like QPR, who claimed a 3-2 win at the Britannia against Stoke. In a very difficult environment to score, never mind win, QPR came through with a very positive approach and took all three points. Since playing very poorly in their 1-0 win over Chelsea, QPR have been impressive in a 3-2 loss to Manchester City and this win over Stoke. The R's still have a good shot at a top of the table finish as they continue to improve.
Tottenham and Aston Villa kicking off in fifteen minutes - should be a good game, and one I would expect Tottenham to win to leap above their rivals on 22 points. Villa have some good players but have lacked any finishing touch in the final third. Spurs could be a bit beleaguered from the international break, but they should come through this game on top.
That result leaves Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal all level on points, but Spurs do have two games in hand. The third and fourth Champions League spots are wide open, as the Manchester clubs have taken a hold of the first two spots. Newcastle finally dropped their first game of the season, falling 3-1 to Manchester City. This is not a bad setback for Newcastle, but it could be the start of a plummet down the table. The most impressive team of the weekend looked like QPR, who claimed a 3-2 win at the Britannia against Stoke. In a very difficult environment to score, never mind win, QPR came through with a very positive approach and took all three points. Since playing very poorly in their 1-0 win over Chelsea, QPR have been impressive in a 3-2 loss to Manchester City and this win over Stoke. The R's still have a good shot at a top of the table finish as they continue to improve.
Tottenham and Aston Villa kicking off in fifteen minutes - should be a good game, and one I would expect Tottenham to win to leap above their rivals on 22 points. Villa have some good players but have lacked any finishing touch in the final third. Spurs could be a bit beleaguered from the international break, but they should come through this game on top.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Euro 2012 Preview
Today's games went as expected - Croatia and Ireland cruised to victory after their hefty first-leg wins, the Czechs also came through without much trouble after a 1-0 win, and Portugal took care of business in a close game which blew open into a 6-2 victory. Now that the sixteen teams are set for the tournament in Ukraine and Poland next summer, I'll give a short overview of each team in the tournament.
FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain
The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.
POWERS: England, France, Italy
Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.
PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden
Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.
MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine
It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.
This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.
SLEEPER: Denmark.
Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.
BUST: England.
As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.
All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.
FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain
The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.
POWERS: England, France, Italy
Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.
PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden
Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.
MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine
It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.
This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.
SLEEPER: Denmark.
Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.
BUST: England.
As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.
All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Second Legs
For the most part, Friday's games played out as expected. Bosnia and Portugal were defensive in a 0-0 draw, but both Postiga and Ibisevic missed golden opportunities for their respective sides. The Czechs took down Montenegro 2-0 in a very narrow game, but the key was the second goal for the Czechs, which came in extra time. I mentioned how solid both of these sides are defensively, and the two-goal deficit makes for a difficult task for Montenegro. An away goal by the Czechs would end the tie, and while I don't want to give up on the underdogs, they would need a historic effort to go through. Ireland is in fantastic shape after a 4-0 win in Estonia. The Irish got the early goal they needed and let the Estonians self-destruct - they ended the game with just nine men. The game at the Aviva is merely a formality, and some of the unfancied players in Ireland's team may feature. Croatia's 3-0 win in Turkey came as somewhat of a surprise, but only for the margin. Croatia have been in far better form and were tested better in the group stage than the Turks, and their quality showed. It was almost too easy for the Croats, and a for a side managed by Guus Hiddink, Turkey must be very disappointed.
WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.
That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.
WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.
That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Preview
This international break is crucial for eight countries - Portugal, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Montenegro and Estonia will fight for the last four spots in Euro 2012, with the first leg at the unseeded opponent on Friday, followed by the second leg at the seeded opponent on Tuesday. At this stage, the favorites typically go through, but there are a number of surprise packages in this tournament's qualifying, so the ties should be very interesting. Slovenia's defeat of Russia to qualify for the 2010 World Cup gives all the underdogs at this stage hope to get through.
Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.
PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals
Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.
PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate
Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate
Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.
PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.
Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.
Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.
PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals
Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.
PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate
Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate
Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.
PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.
Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
A Historic Day in Cyprus
It was a historic day in Nicosia yesterday as Cypriot champions APOEL took down Porto 2-1 on a 90th minute winner by Gustavo Manduca. Porto had a majority of the chances and an edge in possession, but unlike 2009, APOEL did not look overmatched. Now sitting atop Group G with two wins and two draws from four games, APOEL is on the edge of being the first team from the small island country to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League. This win was not only impressive because of the quality of opponent, but for the style of play. The winner was a fabulous move, with passing through the midfield, a world-class ball from Charalambides, and a cool left-footed finish by Manduca. I love the underdogs in the group stages of the Champions League, and I've kept a close eye on Cypriot teams in the past - Anorthosis and APOEL both showed well in their prior appearances. However, these types of results are completely unprecedented. If APOEL can avoid defeat in their final two games, or win one of the two fixures (away to Zenit and home to Shakhtar) they will be through. While APOEL would likely be overmatched against the elite sides in Europe, they are a great story and have been very entertaining to watch this year.
Other than the thriller in Cyprus, yesterday's games were disappointing, lacking goals and excitement alike. Milan and Chelsea both stuttered against inferior opposition on the road, while Barcelona and Valencia both took care of business. There are quite a few ties which are difficult to project - Manchester City head to Villarreal on a tear of form, but that form has not translated to Champions League success so far. If Napoli can avoid defeat in Munich today they will be in great shape to reach the knockout round, but Bayern look very strong now. That looks like the game of the day. Another important game is in Group B between Trabzonspor and CSKA in Turkey. CSKA won the last game 3-0 but the game was closer than the score, and the Turks are strong at home. Here are my projections for today:
Ajax - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Bayern Munich - Napoli: HOME WIN
Benfica - Basel: HOME WIN
Inter - Lille: DRAW
Lyon - Real Madrid: DRAW
Manchester United - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Villarreal - Manchester City: AWAY WIN
Other than the thriller in Cyprus, yesterday's games were disappointing, lacking goals and excitement alike. Milan and Chelsea both stuttered against inferior opposition on the road, while Barcelona and Valencia both took care of business. There are quite a few ties which are difficult to project - Manchester City head to Villarreal on a tear of form, but that form has not translated to Champions League success so far. If Napoli can avoid defeat in Munich today they will be in great shape to reach the knockout round, but Bayern look very strong now. That looks like the game of the day. Another important game is in Group B between Trabzonspor and CSKA in Turkey. CSKA won the last game 3-0 but the game was closer than the score, and the Turks are strong at home. Here are my projections for today:
Ajax - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Bayern Munich - Napoli: HOME WIN
Benfica - Basel: HOME WIN
Inter - Lille: DRAW
Lyon - Real Madrid: DRAW
Manchester United - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Villarreal - Manchester City: AWAY WIN
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