Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

Copa America Centenario Preview: Don’t Expect Much From Team USA

On June 3, the United States has the unique opportunity to host the Copa America, the South American version of the European Championships (which begin June 10 in France, preview coming soon). It’s kind of odd in many ways, as not only has the tournament never been held outside of South America, but it’s usually every four years, and they just had it last year (Chile won as hosts). I’m not complaining though, more competitive soccer for us. The tournament is a commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the first tournament in 1916.

There are a handful of teams capable of winning the competition. However, we are not one of them, barring a ridiculous Greece-like run. The shameful fourth-place finish we had in last year’s Gold Cup doesn’t seem like an inflection point as much as it seems like a continuation of the downward trend under Jurgen Klinsmann. Klinsmann has done some nice things with the team, and he certainly has strengthened the talent pool for years to come by attracting “foreign” players. However, his in-game coaching is clearly lacking, as Phillip Lahm so eloquently put in 2011, “he doesn’t do tactics.” Over the last ten months, we’ve lost competitive matches to Jamaica, Panama (both at home), Mexico (at home, with a chance to go to the Confederations Cup next year), and Guatemala. Ugh. We should be able to beat Jamaica and Guatemala with me coaching the side but somehow we didn’t. My waning hope for this team rests on the first match, against Colombia. If we can get a positive result in that game (which for me would be a draw), we could make a somewhat deep run, especially considering we’re hosts. I don’t see it, and although I think we can beat Costa Rica and possibly Paraguay, I simply don’t have the faith in Klinsmann to put any expectation behind it. I’ll be happy if we get out of the group.

Colombia is the best team in Group A; they should win it without an issue. The other three sides are set to fight for second, and it should be pretty tight. I’m going to take us for second just because I want to see it happen. There’s nothing particularly special about either Paraguay or Costa Rica, although Paraguay were finalists in the 2011 version.  Group B should be a breeze for Brazil. They could probably beat Haiti with nine men, and history suggests Peru and Ecuador have little chance of securing a point. Haiti is a clear level below the others in this group. Peru and Ecuador, two teams used to playing at high altitudes, play on June 8 in Glendale at an elevation of just 522 feet. I expect both teams to be uncomfortable there and a draw is likely, meaning second-place could come down to their goal differences in their nearly-inevitable wins against Haiti and losses against Brazil. I like Ecuador to take second.

Group C should be the tightest overall. Mexico plays their three matches in Arizona, California and Texas so they’re basically hosting as well. Their first match, June 5 against Uruguay, will be the most entertaining. Pichichi winner and constant antagonist Luis Suarez will be a menace for Uruguay, and last year’s Gold Cup winners haven’t convinced me they have the attacking power to keep up. Suarez’s fitness will play a large role in deciding this group. As of right now, I’m assuming he will be fit by ranking Uruguay fifth. If he is unable to play, I would drop them to eighth. Leicester’s Wes Morgan leads Jamaica into the tournament, runners-up to Mexico in the aforementioned Gold Cup. Jamaica isn’t very good, but their experience is in defense, so they could be tough to break down. Venezuela is a bit of a wild card but their results have been poor in qualifying and I don’t expect that to change here. Uruguay and Mexico should navigate through Group C. Group D features two of the tournament’s best sides – Argentina and Chile, who played in last year’s Copa America final – and two of its worst, Panama and Bolivia. Argentina and Chile play on June 6 in Santa Clara, each team’s first game, so we should be in for an entertaining rematch. The other two sides don’t have nearly enough talent or experience to keep up.

My pick for the tournament winner is Argentina – they have the best team and will be smarting after last year’s shootout loss to Chile in the final.

See the below table for my full predictions for the opening round. The teams are ranked 1-16 (by me) and are formatted to show the potential disparity or closeness in ranking. The recent results highlighted in green are particularly important; the ones in red you can disregard. This is because of the timing of the recent matches or the competitiveness of them. Most recent result is listed first. 

Jose Mourinho: Not the Right Fit for Manchester United

This morning, Jose Mourinho was hired as manager of Manchester United. It was a job he spoke about continually after departing Chelsea in 2007, as he hoped to succeed Sir Alex Ferguson upon his retirement. Ferguson chose David Moyes instead, and Mourinho went back to Chelsea, where he had one good year, one great year, and half of last year which ended in a complete disaster. Meanwhile, Manchester United have been far below their historical standards, finishing seventh, fourth and fifth in the past three seasons.

As a Chelsea supporter, I don’t blame Mourinho at all, or hate him, for joining Manchester United. His players revolted on him at Chelsea and Roman Abramovich had no choice but to fire him. The Premier League is one of the most emotional sporting competitions in the world, and clearly the locker room at Chelsea was not behind him. I expressed my disdain for the chief antagonists in that development in my last post and I hope they’re shipped out of London this summer. Anyway, Mourinho isn’t exactly an endearing coach. It’s his way or the highway, and when things are going well, he is the first to bask in the glory. When things aren’t going so well, it quickly falls apart for him. The United board was already hesitant to hire him so I don’t expect him to be on a long leash. He hasn’t exactly had the best relations with boards of directors at his previous clubs.

There are a number of issues in play here. I believe many United fans misunderstood the purpose of Louis Van Gaal’s tenure. Not particularly endearing himself, Van Gaal rarely displayed the type of vigor many United fans wanted to see (but his flop on the touchline was pretty epic). It was his job to transition the team from the disaster that Moyes gave him to a title challenger in three years. The team finished lower in the table this year, and some of his purchases were certainly questionable, but he helped develop many of United’s best players. Marcus Rashford made a splash when Van Gaal put him in the lineup (he scored a goal on his debut for England today), and Van Gaal helped develop Memphis Depay and Daley Blind with United and previously with the Dutch national team. Anthony Martial is arguably the best position player on the team. Van Gaal has a strong record of developing youth and did relatively well with a young team. Jesse Lingard scored the winner for him in the FA Cup final, his final game. Was winning the title ever a realistic goal with the squad he had? Absolutely not. Tactically, United were very boring, and I think that’s why he was ultimately fired. Also, missing out on the Champions League because of the loss at West Ham was a killer.

As for Mourinho… First things first, if Mourinho is allowed to spend at will, United will be a contender, regardless of his antics. Mourinho has a way of getting the best out of players with somewhat obscure personalities – his great relationship with transfer target Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a perfect example, as is the 2014-15 performance of Diego Costa. United finished fifteen points behind Cinderella-side Leicester, their closest finish to the top since Sir Alex left, so it’s not like Mourinho needs to pull some sort of miracle to take them towards the upper echelon. He also has the best goalie in the league in David De Gea. He will need to buy, especially for midfielders and a striker, and if he is allowed to do so, it’s hard to see United struggling again.

However… there are a number of ways Mourinho just doesn’t fit the club:

1. He doesn’t trust youth. Van Gaal has spent the last two years developing players, many through the academy, a United staple. Their golden generations have come through the academy and shined for years as homegrown players. Young players like Marcus Rashford, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson and Adnan Januzaj are not going to play under Mourinho. He simply doesn’t do it. He will buy more experienced players to replace them. They’ll get a few starts in cup games, but it’s more likely you’ll see them shipped out on loan. Also, the existing side is old. With Wayne Rooney, Michael Carrick and Bastian Schweinsteiger are all well past their prime, Mourinho will have to spend heavily to get a starting XI that he’s comfortable with.

2. His style is usually boring. United was not exactly an exciting team to watch last year; they finished 10th in scoring, with just one more goal than nearly-relegated Sunderland. David Moyes played a long-ball style which was terrible, and while Van Gaal emphasized possession more, his players were often unable to do much with it. Mourinho plays on the counter. He can have his players play directly and I would expect more goals, but it’s not exactly a Pep Guardiola-esque free-flowing attack. His style was one of the major reasons United hesitated to hire him to begin with. One of his strengths is his tactical genius, but his style will not always, or maybe ever, please supporters.

3. He is overbearing. United has already given Mourinho the final say on all transfers, which definitely will help relations, as they have already accepted this to begin with. It’s not just transfers with him, it’s preparations, warm-ups, even team doctors that he feels he needs to control. As a club, United just don’t have that kind of personality, and when he used this approach at Real Madrid they eventually threw him out.

Mourinho has a lot to prove at United. He has to prove that he hasn’t lost his tactical acumen and that he can manage a big club without annoying everyone within it. I thought a move to a national side would have been more logical for him (he would’ve made a great coach for Portugal), but he has always wanted the United job, so he had to take the opportunity. The squad needs major improvements, and Mourinho will be successful if he is allowed to bring in a number of superstars. He won’t trust youth, and if he is not immediately successful, he will start alienating people at the club. Club legend Ryan Giggs is already on his way out after Mourinho’s appointment. I don’t have a prediction for Manchester United’s season, mostly because summer transfers will shape their potential success. With Leicester, Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all contending for the title next year, Mourinho has a very difficult job on his hands. I understand why United hired him – he is definitely the best coach available at this point in time. But at first glance, he doesn’t look like the right man for the job.