Finally. The Champions League group stage is here. This is one of the strongest fields of recent years - there are very few teams left that will be severely over-matched. Here is a breakdown of each group:
Group A
Participants: FC Porto, Dynamo Kiev, Paris Saint-Germain, Dinamo Zagreb
Analysis: After a major summer overhaul, PSG start European life in a relatively easy group, despite being chosen from Pot 3. On paper, PSG are one of the most talented sides in Europe, and their progress should come to fruition on the continental stage. There is a major gulf in class between the Parisian side and the rest of the group. Porto are their toughest competitors, but they will have a hard time replacing Hulk after his departure to Zenit. Dynamo Kiev are also without their most formidable strike threat after Andriy Shevchenko retired this summer. Porto and Kiev are an interesting matchup - both have a strong history in Europe and are very tough to beat at home. I think Porto can edge the Ukrainians by gaining a draw away and winning at home to qualify. Dinamo Zagreb are hopeless - last year's campaign was a debacle with zero points from six games, including a suspiciously awful 8-1 loss to Lyon in their last game. They can only go up from last year, but it's hard to see them doing more than grabbing a point or two.
Prediction: 1. PSG 2. Porto 3. Dynamo Kiev 4. Dinamo Zagreb
Group B
Participants: Arsenal, Schalke 04, Olympiakos, Montpellier HSC
Analysis: Arsenal find themselves in a very easy group again this year, and I expect the Gunners to breeze through to the knockout stage. This is more about the weakness of the competition rather than Arsenal's strength - but in Santi Cazorla and a healthy Abou Diaby, Arsenal have enough quality in the midfield to control a game against any of these opponents. Schalke will be a difficult test, with the in-form Klaas-Jan Huntelaar leading the lines for the Germans. Schalke have experience in this competition from their semi-final run two years ago and should be expected to progress here. Olympiakos have been tough the last few years, but the loss of Kevin Mirallas (without any replacement) is a killer, and it will be difficult for the Greeks to come closer to the knockout stage than their narrow miss last year. Montpellier have only lost Olivier Giroud (to Arsenal) from last year's title-winning team, but French teams have not fared well in Europe recently, especially ones with little to no experience (ex. Auxerre two years ago). They will struggle against more seasoned opponents.
Prediction: 1. Arsenal 2. Schalke 3. Olympiakos 4. Montpellier
Group C
Participants: AC Milan, Zenit St. Petersburg, Anderlecht, Malaga
Analysis: Zenit were in the headlines this summer when they secured Hulk and Axel Witsel for a fee in the region of 80 million Euros. Hulk will provide more cutting edge up top for a team that struggled to score in the last year's competition and the Belgian will help the team's depth in central midfield. Zenit will be exciting to watch, and they have a great chance to win this group. Milan's late-summer sales of Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to PSG were well-publicized, and are now wide open for criticism. They have dropped two of their first three league games and have struggled to score - two 1-0 home losses to Sampdoria and Atalanta is unacceptable by Milan's standards. The Rossoneri still have enough quality to get through, but it will be much more challenging than previous years. Standing in their way is Malaga, the cash-strapped Spanish club managed by Manuel Pellegrini. Despite having to sell many of their key players, Malaga will be a formidable side on this stage and a tough out. The club have both the talent and spirit to cause the favored teams some trouble. Anderlecht are Belgian champions and will not be pushovers either. There is a strong European tradition and pride at the club as well as quite a bit of experience in the squad. Gillet, Jovanovic, and captain Lucas Biglia all have experience in international fixtures, and the side could make some noise in this group.
Prediction: 1. Zenit 2. AC Milan 3. Malaga 4. Anderlecht
Group D
Participants: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund
Analysis: Group D is clearly the toughest group, with four domestic champions competing, three of which are from the top three ranked leagues in Europe. City and Dortmund both bowed out at the group stage last year, and will have an even tougher task to make the knockout round. Real Madrid look as strong as ever, and after toppling Barcelona in La Liga, it seems like Mourinho's primary objective to win another Champions League crown. It's hard to imagine Madrid going out before the knockout round. Despite their current poor form, I expect Madrid to have a very strong record in this group. On the other end of the spectrum, it's very difficult to see Ajax getting through here. Although Christian Eriksen is rightfully optimistic about his side's chances, the amount of quality in this group will be way too much for the Dutch side. They could pull a few good results through, but any place above third seems very unlikely. That leaves the last place to Dortmund and Man City - and I will select Man City to fall short of the group stage again this year. I believe their focus at heart is beating Man United in the Premier League, and with a group like this, any lapse of focus will be extremely costly. Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two years in a row now and will be more apt to display their style on the continental stage. Having a healthy Mario Gotze as well as adding Marco Reus should boost the side, despite losing Shinji Kagawa. It will be close, as it was with Napoli last year, but I think Man City will come up just short once again.
Prediction: 1. Real Madrid 2. Borussia Dortmund 3. Manchester City 4. Ajax
Group E
Participants: Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, FC Nordsjaelland
Analysis: The holders are in a difficult group, with an arduous trip to Ukraine coupled with a matchup with Italian champions Juventus, a country where Chelsea have historically struggled. Chelsea have the strongest squad in the group and should find themselves in the knockout round. The squad is full of experience at every position and if the Blues can find a consistent source of goals, it will be easier than many think. Juventus are still in dominant form despite losing manager Antonio Conte to suspension. The momentum from last year's undefeated season in Serie A has continued into this season for the Turin club, which has won its first three fixtures along with the Italian Super Cup. They will be stiff contenders with Chelsea for first place. Shakhtar have competed in the Champions League routinely during the last few years, with one of its greatest victories in its history coming in a 3-2 win at the Nou Camp. However, the side really struggled last year in a relatively soft group, winning just one game, albeit against an APOEL side resting many of its regulars. Shakhtar will be difficult to beat in Ukraine, but will have a difficult time troubling Chelsea or Juventus away from home. FC Nordsjaelland are a complete unknown in this competition. They were surprise Danish champions last year, beating out power club FC Copenhagen, but there are very few recognizable names in their squad. We should not expect much from an unknown and inexperienced side considering the caliber of competition in this group.
Prediction: 1. Chelsea 2. Juventus 3. Shakhtar 4. FC Nordsjaelland
Group F
Participants: Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov
Analysis: Bayern, last year's losing finalists, have a great draw against Valencia, Lille, and BATE. The Bavarians have been blazing out of the gates in the Bundesliga and are by far the strongest side in this group. Bayern will be in the mix for the final again this year and should navigate through without any bumps. Valencia are the second-strongest side, led by Jonas and Roberto Soldado. The Spanish side have been placing third or fourth in La Liga the last few years, and have the quality to do the same this year. Valencia always seems to find themselves in the knockout stage, with last year's drop down to the Europa League being quite the shock. Lille sold Eden Hazard to Chelsea this summer and have done little to replace him, although they do have talented French internationals Mathieu Debuchy and Marvin Martin in their side. Lille will be a tough side to play but do not figure on making in through this group. BATE are in the group stage again after taking out Ironi Kiryat Shmona in the playoffs. BATE have been playing in Europe consistently and will play a disciplined style - they just do not have nearly enough talent to get through this group. They could produce a shock to one of these sides but it's unlikely to expect much more than one or two positive results for the Belorussians.
Prediction: 1. Bayern 2. Valencia 3. Lille 4. BATE
Group G
Participants: Barcelona, Benfica, Spartak Moscow, Celtic
Analysis: Barcelona are among the favorites again for this year's competition despite the departure of coach Pep Guardiola.They were also handed a straightforward group - none of their three competitors will pose too much of a threat. I don't expect Barcelona to be perfect, but they should have no trouble winning this group. The other three sides in the group do not have much between them. Spartak defeated a good Fener side in the playoffs and look to be the strongest of the three. Russian football has been getting stronger and Moscow is always a difficult place to travel, especially in the winter. Celtic are historically dreadful away from home and will have to rely on their results at Celtic Park. The quality of Scottish football has been in a steep decline, and while Celtic feel they have something to prove, they are the most mistake-prone side of the three. Benfica won their group in last year's edition, but losing Witsel so late will harm a team that already needed to reload a bit. However, there is still plenty of quality and Benfica rarely lose at home. There will be no easy games in this group, but I will take the Russians to get through with Barcelona.
Prediction: 1. Barcelona 2. Spartak Moscow 3. Benfica 4. Celtic
Group H
Participants: Manchester United, Sporting Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj
Analysis: United drew the easiest group of any of the four English clubs in the competition. Last year's group stage was an embarrassment for the Red Devils, as they were outplayed and at times outclassed by Benfica and Basel. This year United will make a point to qualify from this group without question, and although I still don't like their defensive set-up, they should have little trouble doing so. They could get exposed by Braga and Galatasaray, but those squads are both weaker than United's opponents last year, and they should be able to pull out the results. The rest of this group should be very close - again, there isn't much between any of the sides. I'm going with Braga to get through, as they have played well in Europe recently and are emerging as a Portuguese power along side traditionals Porto and Benfica. Galatasaray and Cluj represent federations that have seen better days, as both Romania and Turkey have been littered with major match-fixing scandals in the last decade. However, these sides will be very competitive and the fight for second will be close.
Prediction: 1. Manchester United 2. Braga 3. Galatasaray 4. CFR Cluj
Monday, September 17, 2012
Friday, September 7, 2012
Top 25 - September 7, 2012
The Top 25 is back after the completion of the first month of the season. The usual suspects are in the top 5, but the list has changed around quite a bit due to transfers over the summer.
1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6) Chelsea FC (ENG)
7) Juventus FC (ITA)
8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
11) AC Milan (ITA)
12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13) Schalke 04 (GER)
14) SSC Napoli (ITA)
15) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17) Malaga CF (ESP)
18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
20) SL Benfica (POR)
21) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
22) Ajax Amsterdam (NED)
23) Everton FC (ENG)
24) SS Lazio (ITA)
25) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
Notes:
1-10: Real Madrid deserves top spot after beating out Barcelona for last year's La Liga crown, as well as their Supercopa victory last week on away goals. After toppling the Catalans, Mourinho's goal for this year must surely be another Champions League crown. It doesn't start easy. Early matchups with Manchester City and Dortmund make it a difficult road to London..While the Premier League has proven itself to be the deepest in Europe, its top teams have struggled mightily in the defensive end. City, United and Chelsea have all conceded at least two goals twice within their first three to four games. United were the only team not to reinforce their ranks this summer, although they do have returns from Phil Jones and Chris Smalling to look forward to. United have drawn another easy group, but will struggle again in Europe if they do not improve, especially after conceding eight goals in four games against Basel and Benfica last year.. Zenit made two huge acquisitions in Hulk and Axel Witsel, giving them a top-ten pedigree in both talent and experience. They should be favorites in Group C and could make a deep run in Europe after a disappointing drop-down to the Europa league last year.. After becoming the biggest of all spenders this summer, PSG have failed to see results on the pitch. Draws in each of their first three league games (followed by a first win against Lille) have put pressure on the new signings as well as manager Carlo Ancelotti. Group A looks soft for the Parisians, but they could be exposed by the experience of Dynamo Kiev and Porto.
11-25: Atletico Madrid are back on the rise after several mediocre seasons. Falcao can be argued as the best striker in Europe at the moment, scoring a hat-trick in a resounding Super Cup victory over Chelsea. Whether Atleti can keep him is a completely different question - transfer rumors have already started coming in from England. If he makes a January move to the Premier League, it could be a season-changer.. Everton are currently the fifth-best team in England. Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle have all stuttered at the start. If Everton keeps up their second-half form of recent years, they could challenge for a European place. Marouane Fellaini is in the top form of his career.. A horrendous 10th place finish is clearly out of the minds of Marseille as they have raced to a four-for-four start in Ligue 1. More importantly, they hold an early six-point advantage over PSG. The hot start makes the acquisition of Joey Barton even more questionable for L'OM.. Malaga look like a great story after they qualified for the Champions League against Panathinaikos. A huge investment looked to make Malaga a mainstay in Spanish football, but funds have dried up and the club had to sell many of the stars they bought. However, Manuel Pellegrini has kept heads up in the camp, good for a first appearance in the UCL and seven points from nine in La Liga.. Same old Arsenal this summer, as the club again decided to sell its instrumental players. Wenger did a better job this summer reinforcing his ranks, but the fans and players of the club are questioning its transfer policy. If they want to be serious contenders for trophies, and not just competing well, Arsenal must make a stand with its top players and force them to stay. Whether that means paying them more or not is the issue.
1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6) Chelsea FC (ENG)
7) Juventus FC (ITA)
8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
11) AC Milan (ITA)
12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13) Schalke 04 (GER)
14) SSC Napoli (ITA)
15) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17) Malaga CF (ESP)
18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
20) SL Benfica (POR)
21) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
22) Ajax Amsterdam (NED)
23) Everton FC (ENG)
24) SS Lazio (ITA)
25) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
Notes:
1-10: Real Madrid deserves top spot after beating out Barcelona for last year's La Liga crown, as well as their Supercopa victory last week on away goals. After toppling the Catalans, Mourinho's goal for this year must surely be another Champions League crown. It doesn't start easy. Early matchups with Manchester City and Dortmund make it a difficult road to London..While the Premier League has proven itself to be the deepest in Europe, its top teams have struggled mightily in the defensive end. City, United and Chelsea have all conceded at least two goals twice within their first three to four games. United were the only team not to reinforce their ranks this summer, although they do have returns from Phil Jones and Chris Smalling to look forward to. United have drawn another easy group, but will struggle again in Europe if they do not improve, especially after conceding eight goals in four games against Basel and Benfica last year.. Zenit made two huge acquisitions in Hulk and Axel Witsel, giving them a top-ten pedigree in both talent and experience. They should be favorites in Group C and could make a deep run in Europe after a disappointing drop-down to the Europa league last year.. After becoming the biggest of all spenders this summer, PSG have failed to see results on the pitch. Draws in each of their first three league games (followed by a first win against Lille) have put pressure on the new signings as well as manager Carlo Ancelotti. Group A looks soft for the Parisians, but they could be exposed by the experience of Dynamo Kiev and Porto.
11-25: Atletico Madrid are back on the rise after several mediocre seasons. Falcao can be argued as the best striker in Europe at the moment, scoring a hat-trick in a resounding Super Cup victory over Chelsea. Whether Atleti can keep him is a completely different question - transfer rumors have already started coming in from England. If he makes a January move to the Premier League, it could be a season-changer.. Everton are currently the fifth-best team in England. Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle have all stuttered at the start. If Everton keeps up their second-half form of recent years, they could challenge for a European place. Marouane Fellaini is in the top form of his career.. A horrendous 10th place finish is clearly out of the minds of Marseille as they have raced to a four-for-four start in Ligue 1. More importantly, they hold an early six-point advantage over PSG. The hot start makes the acquisition of Joey Barton even more questionable for L'OM.. Malaga look like a great story after they qualified for the Champions League against Panathinaikos. A huge investment looked to make Malaga a mainstay in Spanish football, but funds have dried up and the club had to sell many of the stars they bought. However, Manuel Pellegrini has kept heads up in the camp, good for a first appearance in the UCL and seven points from nine in La Liga.. Same old Arsenal this summer, as the club again decided to sell its instrumental players. Wenger did a better job this summer reinforcing his ranks, but the fans and players of the club are questioning its transfer policy. If they want to be serious contenders for trophies, and not just competing well, Arsenal must make a stand with its top players and force them to stay. Whether that means paying them more or not is the issue.
Monday, August 20, 2012
2012-13 UEFA Champions League Qualifying - Playoff Round
The third round of qualifying went nearly entirely as expected, the only surprise (to me) being Helsingborg's comprehensive win over Slask Wroclaw. The teams remaining all have a high level of quality - the only team left that I believe would be truly overmatched in the group stages would be Maribor of Slovenia. There is a great deal of experience and tradition existing in the clubs who have made it this far, which should make for another round of close ties.
The showcase match-up in the Non-Champions path is between Borussia Monchengladbach of Germany and Dynamo Kiev of Ukraine. Gladbach lost German international Marco Reus to Dortmund but acquired Luuk De Jong to lead the line, hoping to produce the same type of quality that culminated in a surprising fourth place finish in the Bundesliga. Dynamo Kiev are without the iconic Andriy Shevchenko, but have been a mainstay in European football for nearly their entire history. A tough win over Feyenoord in the last round showed Dynamo is keen to return to the group stages, while Gladbach are playing their first competitive matches of the season. This is a very tough draw for a team like Gladbach who are inexperienced in Europe, but they have the ability to pull through if they play a strong game in Germany.
For the Champions Route, I like all of the matchups to be close, although I am very confident in Dinamo Zagreb against Maribor. Zagreb have much more experience and despite being battered in losing all six group games last year, a return to that stage looks on the cards. I also expect Basel to get through; despite squeaking past Molde by the narrowest of margins, the Swiss side have much more talent and experience than Romanian counterparts CFR Cluj. The Romanian league has fallen off considerably because of a number of scandals and the quality has been substantially reduced.
The other three ties are all toss-ups. Anderlecht are favorites against AEL but you cannot ignore how Cypriot clubs have progressed to the group stage in three of the last four competitions. Anderlecht have a rich history in Belgium and in Europe, so this matchup features the most quality of the five ties. AEL have not conceded a goal in Europe yet this season (while Anderlecht put 11 goals past FK Ekranas in the last round) and could cause an upset against the Belgians. The pressure is completely on Celtic in their tie against Swedish champions Helsingborg, a matchup featuring two federations that used to dominate the continental game, but will now be reduced to just one representative in Europe's elite after this season. Celtic are Scottish football's lone strong representative, and the Swedes are a tricky opponent - Rangers were knocked out of the Champions League by Malmo in last year's edition. It is up to Celtic to uphold the dwindling reputation of the Scottish Premier League. The last matchup pits Belarussian champions BATE Borisov against debutant Israeli champs Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Both federations have made appearances in the group stage throughout the last few years, with BATE becoming the first Belarussian side to appear during the 2008-09 campaign. BATE are slight favorites, but this tie should be very tight - it could truly go either way.
Predictions:
FC Basel o/ CFR Cluj
Celtic o/ Helsingborg
Ironi Kiryat Shmona o/ BATE Borisov
AEL Limassol o/ Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb o/ Maribor
Udinese o/ Braga
Fenerbahce o/ Spartak Moscow
Malaga o/ Panathinaikos
Borussia Monchengladbach o/ Dynamo Kyiv
LOSC Lille o/ FC Copenhagen
The showcase match-up in the Non-Champions path is between Borussia Monchengladbach of Germany and Dynamo Kiev of Ukraine. Gladbach lost German international Marco Reus to Dortmund but acquired Luuk De Jong to lead the line, hoping to produce the same type of quality that culminated in a surprising fourth place finish in the Bundesliga. Dynamo Kiev are without the iconic Andriy Shevchenko, but have been a mainstay in European football for nearly their entire history. A tough win over Feyenoord in the last round showed Dynamo is keen to return to the group stages, while Gladbach are playing their first competitive matches of the season. This is a very tough draw for a team like Gladbach who are inexperienced in Europe, but they have the ability to pull through if they play a strong game in Germany.
For the Champions Route, I like all of the matchups to be close, although I am very confident in Dinamo Zagreb against Maribor. Zagreb have much more experience and despite being battered in losing all six group games last year, a return to that stage looks on the cards. I also expect Basel to get through; despite squeaking past Molde by the narrowest of margins, the Swiss side have much more talent and experience than Romanian counterparts CFR Cluj. The Romanian league has fallen off considerably because of a number of scandals and the quality has been substantially reduced.
The other three ties are all toss-ups. Anderlecht are favorites against AEL but you cannot ignore how Cypriot clubs have progressed to the group stage in three of the last four competitions. Anderlecht have a rich history in Belgium and in Europe, so this matchup features the most quality of the five ties. AEL have not conceded a goal in Europe yet this season (while Anderlecht put 11 goals past FK Ekranas in the last round) and could cause an upset against the Belgians. The pressure is completely on Celtic in their tie against Swedish champions Helsingborg, a matchup featuring two federations that used to dominate the continental game, but will now be reduced to just one representative in Europe's elite after this season. Celtic are Scottish football's lone strong representative, and the Swedes are a tricky opponent - Rangers were knocked out of the Champions League by Malmo in last year's edition. It is up to Celtic to uphold the dwindling reputation of the Scottish Premier League. The last matchup pits Belarussian champions BATE Borisov against debutant Israeli champs Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Both federations have made appearances in the group stage throughout the last few years, with BATE becoming the first Belarussian side to appear during the 2008-09 campaign. BATE are slight favorites, but this tie should be very tight - it could truly go either way.
Predictions:
FC Basel o/ CFR Cluj
Celtic o/ Helsingborg
Ironi Kiryat Shmona o/ BATE Borisov
AEL Limassol o/ Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb o/ Maribor
Udinese o/ Braga
Fenerbahce o/ Spartak Moscow
Malaga o/ Panathinaikos
Borussia Monchengladbach o/ Dynamo Kyiv
LOSC Lille o/ FC Copenhagen
Saturday, August 18, 2012
2012-13 Barclays Premier League - Preview
It's time for a new Premier League season, 21st since its reformation. Here is a breakdown of what I expect to see this season, which should have headlines from top to bottom:
Projected Standings:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Newcastle
7. Tottenham
8. Everton
9. Aston Villa
10. Fulham
11. West Brom
12. QPR
13. West Ham
14. Norwich
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Stoke
18. Southampton
19. Swansea
20. Reading
FAVORITES: Manchester City, Manchester United
The two Manchester clubs finished 19 points clear of third-place Arsenal last season and look to create a similar gap in this year's table. United's signings of Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie will strengthen the attack, while Nemanja Vidic returns from injury to bolster the defense. My issue with United is that they largely bought players in positions where they were already strong, while they have not offloaded excess parts nor assessed their biggest needs. United's weakness last season was defensive midfield, with Fletcher out and Scholes only coming in January, and right back - neither of which they filled. Scholes played very well after ending his retirement, but how long can he be relied upon? Rafael, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have hardly been convincing at right back, and despite United conceding just 33 times last season, it was curious to see Sir Alex use the funds in attack. As for Van Persie, the question is his positioning in the United formation. United have not always played with two strikers, and now SAF has four very talented ones at his disposal in RVP, Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Chicharito (not even including Berbatov). How will all of these players play? It's always a great move to get a player the quality of Van Persie but his position is still to be determined.
City have largely the same squad as last year, the only major addition being Jack Rodwell from Everton (where will he play?). Top to bottom, this is still the deepest squad in the league, and the experience of last year's triumph should only boost their level of play. Although European success will definitely be prioritized at the Eastlands this year, a second straight victory over their rivals will surely come first - and this should be a close race again. City's midfield controls play much better than United's, and despite making just one major move this transfer window, City addressed its need for versatile defensive players, while United ignored their true needs for the glamorous type of signings. Just as last year, I will go with City to pip United to the title, perhaps by a few points rather than the 45 seconds that separated the two last year.
RELEGATION: Southampton, Swansea, Reading
Last year all three promoted sides survived relegation for just the second time in the Premier League's twenty year history. Expect nothing of the same this year, as West Ham is the only squad that can be comfortably expected to survive after bouncing back from their 2010-11 relegation. Southampton have repeated Norwich's feat of two straight promotions, but the squad lacks top-flight experience and have failed to strengthen in the transfer market. The possible acquisition of Gaston Ramirez from Bologna would be a huge boost for the Saints, but their season will likely be filled with relegation worry. Swansea were one of the brighter stories in the Premier League last season; after being tipped by nearly every writer to be relegated, the Swans played brilliant football and finished in 11th place, 11 points clear of the drop. However, this season could be the fateful "second season hangover" for Swansea, especially after losing midfielders Joe Allen and Gylfi Sigurdsson, as well as manager Brendan Rodgers. The Swans don't look nearly deep enough at this point and despite making moves for Chico and Jonathan De Guzman, they look primed for the drop. Reading enjoyed a great season last year in the Championship, winning the title by a point.The signing of Pavel Pogrebnyak will boost a side in need of a goal scoring threat. The Royals look much like Soton - a great season in the Championship but very little in top flight pedigree. It could be a very difficult season for Reading.
OUTPERFORM: Aston Villa
After an extremely disappointing 16th place finish last season under the maligned Alex McLeish (in which he won just 7 games), Villa have brought in Paul Lambert in hopes of turning the tide. There is a lot of talent on this team considering their finish last season, and the additions of Ron Vlaar and Karim El Ahmadi from Feyenoord will boost the team further. This team played well below their capabilities last year and look primed for a bounce back season. After a severe underperformance last season, the Villans should reclaim a spot in the top half of the table.
UNDERPERFORM: Stoke City
Stoke struggled down the stretch last season, and largely blamed the number of fixtures, which included runs into the Europa League and FA Cup, for their performance. Stoke is one of the smaller clubs in the PL and they do not have the financials to support the squad depth that other teams have, so it is easy to sympathize with Tony Pulis's men. The Potters have been posted a mid-40's point total in each of their four seasons in the top flight, and have been a model of stability for a small club, never really coming close to relegation. This season could be different for Stoke; the only major signing has been Goran Popov from Dynamo Kiev and attacking options have not been boosted, despite scoring just 36 goals in their 38 games last year - worst in the league. Stoke will continue to play their physical style this season, but without any improvements to the squad, they could be much closer to the drop then hoped.
FOURTH PLACE: Liverpool
I maintained the same projection for the top 4 as last year, and I feel much more comfortable about the top 3. As stated, City and United will most likely be fighting for the title, while Chelsea looks to have bridged the gap quite a bit with the signings of Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Marko Marin. Fourth place seems the toughest to call - and I like Liverpool again this year. Last year was a disaster for the Reds in the league, as tentative tactics led to nine draws at home with just 24 goals in 19 games. In comes Brendan Rodgers after an impressive season at Swansea - not only to revitalize but also to change Liverpool's style of play. Expect a more free flowing and positive Reds side this season, which should result in more victories. Arsenal will likely have another hangover after the departure of Van Persie, but still have more than enough experience to contend. However, selling your best player every summer has to catch up at some point, and this could be that year for the Gunners. Newcastle have kept all of the big pieces that led to a surprising sixth place finish last season, but the competition from these sides could be too much. Tottenham still have the Luka Modric situation hanging over their heads, and new manager Andre Villas-Boas has a lot to prove after the failure at Chelsea. If Rodgers is able to implement Swansea's style of play into the Liverpool players, they could enjoy a return to Champions League qualification.
Projected Standings:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Newcastle
7. Tottenham
8. Everton
9. Aston Villa
10. Fulham
11. West Brom
12. QPR
13. West Ham
14. Norwich
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Stoke
18. Southampton
19. Swansea
20. Reading
FAVORITES: Manchester City, Manchester United
The two Manchester clubs finished 19 points clear of third-place Arsenal last season and look to create a similar gap in this year's table. United's signings of Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie will strengthen the attack, while Nemanja Vidic returns from injury to bolster the defense. My issue with United is that they largely bought players in positions where they were already strong, while they have not offloaded excess parts nor assessed their biggest needs. United's weakness last season was defensive midfield, with Fletcher out and Scholes only coming in January, and right back - neither of which they filled. Scholes played very well after ending his retirement, but how long can he be relied upon? Rafael, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have hardly been convincing at right back, and despite United conceding just 33 times last season, it was curious to see Sir Alex use the funds in attack. As for Van Persie, the question is his positioning in the United formation. United have not always played with two strikers, and now SAF has four very talented ones at his disposal in RVP, Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Chicharito (not even including Berbatov). How will all of these players play? It's always a great move to get a player the quality of Van Persie but his position is still to be determined.
City have largely the same squad as last year, the only major addition being Jack Rodwell from Everton (where will he play?). Top to bottom, this is still the deepest squad in the league, and the experience of last year's triumph should only boost their level of play. Although European success will definitely be prioritized at the Eastlands this year, a second straight victory over their rivals will surely come first - and this should be a close race again. City's midfield controls play much better than United's, and despite making just one major move this transfer window, City addressed its need for versatile defensive players, while United ignored their true needs for the glamorous type of signings. Just as last year, I will go with City to pip United to the title, perhaps by a few points rather than the 45 seconds that separated the two last year.
RELEGATION: Southampton, Swansea, Reading
Last year all three promoted sides survived relegation for just the second time in the Premier League's twenty year history. Expect nothing of the same this year, as West Ham is the only squad that can be comfortably expected to survive after bouncing back from their 2010-11 relegation. Southampton have repeated Norwich's feat of two straight promotions, but the squad lacks top-flight experience and have failed to strengthen in the transfer market. The possible acquisition of Gaston Ramirez from Bologna would be a huge boost for the Saints, but their season will likely be filled with relegation worry. Swansea were one of the brighter stories in the Premier League last season; after being tipped by nearly every writer to be relegated, the Swans played brilliant football and finished in 11th place, 11 points clear of the drop. However, this season could be the fateful "second season hangover" for Swansea, especially after losing midfielders Joe Allen and Gylfi Sigurdsson, as well as manager Brendan Rodgers. The Swans don't look nearly deep enough at this point and despite making moves for Chico and Jonathan De Guzman, they look primed for the drop. Reading enjoyed a great season last year in the Championship, winning the title by a point.The signing of Pavel Pogrebnyak will boost a side in need of a goal scoring threat. The Royals look much like Soton - a great season in the Championship but very little in top flight pedigree. It could be a very difficult season for Reading.
OUTPERFORM: Aston Villa
After an extremely disappointing 16th place finish last season under the maligned Alex McLeish (in which he won just 7 games), Villa have brought in Paul Lambert in hopes of turning the tide. There is a lot of talent on this team considering their finish last season, and the additions of Ron Vlaar and Karim El Ahmadi from Feyenoord will boost the team further. This team played well below their capabilities last year and look primed for a bounce back season. After a severe underperformance last season, the Villans should reclaim a spot in the top half of the table.
UNDERPERFORM: Stoke City
Stoke struggled down the stretch last season, and largely blamed the number of fixtures, which included runs into the Europa League and FA Cup, for their performance. Stoke is one of the smaller clubs in the PL and they do not have the financials to support the squad depth that other teams have, so it is easy to sympathize with Tony Pulis's men. The Potters have been posted a mid-40's point total in each of their four seasons in the top flight, and have been a model of stability for a small club, never really coming close to relegation. This season could be different for Stoke; the only major signing has been Goran Popov from Dynamo Kiev and attacking options have not been boosted, despite scoring just 36 goals in their 38 games last year - worst in the league. Stoke will continue to play their physical style this season, but without any improvements to the squad, they could be much closer to the drop then hoped.
FOURTH PLACE: Liverpool
I maintained the same projection for the top 4 as last year, and I feel much more comfortable about the top 3. As stated, City and United will most likely be fighting for the title, while Chelsea looks to have bridged the gap quite a bit with the signings of Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Marko Marin. Fourth place seems the toughest to call - and I like Liverpool again this year. Last year was a disaster for the Reds in the league, as tentative tactics led to nine draws at home with just 24 goals in 19 games. In comes Brendan Rodgers after an impressive season at Swansea - not only to revitalize but also to change Liverpool's style of play. Expect a more free flowing and positive Reds side this season, which should result in more victories. Arsenal will likely have another hangover after the departure of Van Persie, but still have more than enough experience to contend. However, selling your best player every summer has to catch up at some point, and this could be that year for the Gunners. Newcastle have kept all of the big pieces that led to a surprising sixth place finish last season, but the competition from these sides could be too much. Tottenham still have the Luka Modric situation hanging over their heads, and new manager Andre Villas-Boas has a lot to prove after the failure at Chelsea. If Rodgers is able to implement Swansea's style of play into the Liverpool players, they could enjoy a return to Champions League qualification.
Monday, July 30, 2012
2012-13 UEFA Champions League Qualifying - Third Round Preview
The Champions League is one of my favorite sports competitions because it is practically all year-round. The first qualifying round started on July 3, after the final of last year's edition was only May 19. I did not do extensive previews on the first two rounds because many of the clubs are very small from the smaller European countries, and I don't know much about them. But now that we are at the third round, the clubs are big enough to have international recognition. Most of the ties at this point are very tight - last year, twelve of the fifteen aggregate scores were decided by two goals or less, and the other three were decided by three goals.
The Champions Route features two clubs who participated in the group stages last year (BATE Borisov, Dinamo Zagreb), as well as a club who reached the knockout stages (FC Basel). F91 Dudelange are the surprise inclusion, as the Luxembourg club defeated Austrian giants Red Bull Salzburg on away goals in the second round. They take on Maribor from Slovakia, who are far from unbeatable, but you feel as if the Cinderella run ends for Dudelange. There are a number of fixtures between sides that could hold their own in the group stages. The tie between Cypriot champions AEL Limassol and Serbians Partizan Belgrade should be very tight. AEL have some quality in their team and look to follow the footsteps of fellow Cypriot side APOEL's run to the quarterfinals in last year's competition. Partizan have featured in the group stages throughout their history and narrowly lost to Belgian side Genk at this stage last year. Partizan definitely have the edge in experience, but AEL have a bit more quality. I expect this tie to be decided by a goal or less. The feature tie is between Molde FK of Norway and FC Basel of Switzerland. Molde are led by Manchester United legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, while Basel defeated Manchester United to reach the knockout stages last year. Despite losing playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri to Bayern Munich, Basel have the rest of their playmakers back, with the added experience of last year's victories. I expect Basel to win the tie, but this will be one of the higher quality match-ups that we see this early in the competition.
The Non-Champions Route is less appetizing, but I do think the tie between Motherwell and Panathinaikos is worth looking at. Scottish football's reputation is on the line after the collapse of Rangers, and Motherwell take their spot in the Champions League after finishing third in the SPL last year. The drop in quality in the league, however, is astounding, as Motherwell finished 31 points behind champions Celtic. It is worth noting that only one team (Hearts) have finished in the top 2 in the SPL in the last seventeen years. Panathinaikos are back into qualifying after another second-place finish, and look to avenge last year's disappointing loss to Odense. After suffering serious financial problems, the Greens are looking to join rivals Olympiacos by qualifying for the group stages. I expect Panathinaikos to expose the general weakness of the SPL by easily defeating Motherwell over two legs.
Full Predictions:
Maribor (SVK) o/ F91 Dudelange (LUX)
BATE (BLR) o/ Debrecen (HUN)
CFR Cluj (ROM) o/ Slovan Liberec (CZE)
Anderlecht (BEL) o/ Ekranas (LTH)
Slask Wroclaw (POL) o/ Helsingborg (SWE)
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) o/ Sheriff Tiraspol (MOL)
Celtic (SCO) o/ HJK Helsinki (FIN)
FC Basel (SUI) o/ Molde FK (NOR)
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (ISR) o/ Neftchi Baku (AZE)
AEL Limassol (CYP) o/ Partizan Belgrade (SRB)
Fenerbahce (TUR) o/ FC Vaslui (ROM)
Panathinaikos (GRE) o/ Motherwell (SCO)
FC Copenhagen (DEN) o/ Club Brugge (BEL)
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) o/ Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)
The Champions Route features two clubs who participated in the group stages last year (BATE Borisov, Dinamo Zagreb), as well as a club who reached the knockout stages (FC Basel). F91 Dudelange are the surprise inclusion, as the Luxembourg club defeated Austrian giants Red Bull Salzburg on away goals in the second round. They take on Maribor from Slovakia, who are far from unbeatable, but you feel as if the Cinderella run ends for Dudelange. There are a number of fixtures between sides that could hold their own in the group stages. The tie between Cypriot champions AEL Limassol and Serbians Partizan Belgrade should be very tight. AEL have some quality in their team and look to follow the footsteps of fellow Cypriot side APOEL's run to the quarterfinals in last year's competition. Partizan have featured in the group stages throughout their history and narrowly lost to Belgian side Genk at this stage last year. Partizan definitely have the edge in experience, but AEL have a bit more quality. I expect this tie to be decided by a goal or less. The feature tie is between Molde FK of Norway and FC Basel of Switzerland. Molde are led by Manchester United legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, while Basel defeated Manchester United to reach the knockout stages last year. Despite losing playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri to Bayern Munich, Basel have the rest of their playmakers back, with the added experience of last year's victories. I expect Basel to win the tie, but this will be one of the higher quality match-ups that we see this early in the competition.
The Non-Champions Route is less appetizing, but I do think the tie between Motherwell and Panathinaikos is worth looking at. Scottish football's reputation is on the line after the collapse of Rangers, and Motherwell take their spot in the Champions League after finishing third in the SPL last year. The drop in quality in the league, however, is astounding, as Motherwell finished 31 points behind champions Celtic. It is worth noting that only one team (Hearts) have finished in the top 2 in the SPL in the last seventeen years. Panathinaikos are back into qualifying after another second-place finish, and look to avenge last year's disappointing loss to Odense. After suffering serious financial problems, the Greens are looking to join rivals Olympiacos by qualifying for the group stages. I expect Panathinaikos to expose the general weakness of the SPL by easily defeating Motherwell over two legs.
Full Predictions:
Maribor (SVK) o/ F91 Dudelange (LUX)
BATE (BLR) o/ Debrecen (HUN)
CFR Cluj (ROM) o/ Slovan Liberec (CZE)
Anderlecht (BEL) o/ Ekranas (LTH)
Slask Wroclaw (POL) o/ Helsingborg (SWE)
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) o/ Sheriff Tiraspol (MOL)
Celtic (SCO) o/ HJK Helsinki (FIN)
FC Basel (SUI) o/ Molde FK (NOR)
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (ISR) o/ Neftchi Baku (AZE)
AEL Limassol (CYP) o/ Partizan Belgrade (SRB)
Fenerbahce (TUR) o/ FC Vaslui (ROM)
Panathinaikos (GRE) o/ Motherwell (SCO)
FC Copenhagen (DEN) o/ Club Brugge (BEL)
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) o/ Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)
Saturday, June 30, 2012
UEFA Euro 2012 - Final
Tomorrow's final features the last two World Cup winners - defending WC and Euro champion Spain and 2006 winners Italy. Both teams came from Group C, and played each other in the first game of the tournament, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The Italians were clearly on top for the first half, with Spain struggling to play without a striker. In the second half, Spain responded to an Italian goal by throwing on Torres, which helped their shape and got them an equalizer.
Spain have played throughout this tournament without a striker, but have been very poor, especially the last two games. Against Portugal they started with a striker (Negredo) and created next to nothing. Spain's passing game can be devastating when they have a lead, but without David Villa, Spain have struggled in this tournament to put passes together in the final third. Italy, who were a huge mystery due to a number of younger players in the squad and the match-fixing scandal hanging over Serie A, have played wonderfully throughout the tournament. Once again, the Italians have responded to scandal by making their countrymen proud, and their only "poor" performance was against England, and they still were able to boss the flow of the game.
The key match-up is going to be in the midfield, with Italy's Andrea Pirlo making his case for player of the tournament with his instrumental passing, against Spain's legendary tandem of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Both Spain and Italy try and dominate possession, and while Italy will likely concede more possession to the Spanish than against other teams, they will not simply sit back and try and counter. They did a solid job of breaking up the Spanish passing game in the opener and will adopt a similar tactical style. Spain will have more possession, but their fight will be to have more meaningful possession. Spain always has a higher number of passes than its opponent, but many of the passes are back and forth between the back line. With just three goals in their last three games, Spain must find a way to move the ball vertically down the field.
The biggest question going into the match will be what formation Spain decides to play. They have struggled in the 4-6 formation, creating very little against Portugal and, despite scoring against France, had just nine shots against a very poor French performance. Del Bosque inexplicably started Negredo against Portugal, and the team improved after his departure. Will he go with Torres, who scored two against the Republic of Ireland but failed to score (or make any kind of impact) in his other spells of play? Or will he stick with Fabregas, who started the first game against Italy, and maintain the possessive, slow-building style that has characterized Spain for the tournament? Italy have no such issue, as Mario Balotelli's brace against Germany must surely affirm his place in the starting line-up. He proved very clinical against the Germans, capitalizing on his two best chances for the winning goals. He had a very poor showing against Spain in the first game, but his performances have improved throughout the tournament, and he should be a menace to deal with.
PREDICTION
Tracking back to my pre-tournament post, I selected two teams from the same group to be in the final - but it was the wrong group, Group B. The Dutch were the huge disappointment of the tournament, losing all three games in the group, while Germany fell to the Italians in the semi-finals. Spain was never matched up with anyone who had the midfield power to beat them, while the Italians have responded better than imagined to the developments on and off the field. Spain have won their last two finals, both 1-0, against the Germans and the Dutch, respectively. Italy have not lost to Spain in a competitive match since 1920. Spain will have more possession in the game, but if they start without a striker, it will be difficult to get the ball past the Italian defense and world-class goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Italy's chances in this game are resting on their ability to take their chances. They did not in their first match-up with Spain or their quarterfinal against England, but did so against Germany. They will have their opportunities against an average Spanish defense, and they must take them.
Finals are often nervy, low-scoring encounters, especially in international football. I really hope it isn't because Spain can put me to sleep when they decide to just pass the ball around in circles. I think they will play their 4-6, with Fabregas up top, and if they are unable to score by the 65th minute or so, Del Bosque will throw Torres on to improve the attacking options. Italy and Spain played to a 0-0 draw in their last competitive meeting, with Spain advancing in Euro 2008 on penalties. Despite history being on the side of the Italians, I'm picking Spain in this final in a very disappointing game. I will be rooting for the Italians though, both for the entertainment and my own personal preference.
Prediction: Spain 1, Italy 0
Spain have played throughout this tournament without a striker, but have been very poor, especially the last two games. Against Portugal they started with a striker (Negredo) and created next to nothing. Spain's passing game can be devastating when they have a lead, but without David Villa, Spain have struggled in this tournament to put passes together in the final third. Italy, who were a huge mystery due to a number of younger players in the squad and the match-fixing scandal hanging over Serie A, have played wonderfully throughout the tournament. Once again, the Italians have responded to scandal by making their countrymen proud, and their only "poor" performance was against England, and they still were able to boss the flow of the game.
The key match-up is going to be in the midfield, with Italy's Andrea Pirlo making his case for player of the tournament with his instrumental passing, against Spain's legendary tandem of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Both Spain and Italy try and dominate possession, and while Italy will likely concede more possession to the Spanish than against other teams, they will not simply sit back and try and counter. They did a solid job of breaking up the Spanish passing game in the opener and will adopt a similar tactical style. Spain will have more possession, but their fight will be to have more meaningful possession. Spain always has a higher number of passes than its opponent, but many of the passes are back and forth between the back line. With just three goals in their last three games, Spain must find a way to move the ball vertically down the field.
The biggest question going into the match will be what formation Spain decides to play. They have struggled in the 4-6 formation, creating very little against Portugal and, despite scoring against France, had just nine shots against a very poor French performance. Del Bosque inexplicably started Negredo against Portugal, and the team improved after his departure. Will he go with Torres, who scored two against the Republic of Ireland but failed to score (or make any kind of impact) in his other spells of play? Or will he stick with Fabregas, who started the first game against Italy, and maintain the possessive, slow-building style that has characterized Spain for the tournament? Italy have no such issue, as Mario Balotelli's brace against Germany must surely affirm his place in the starting line-up. He proved very clinical against the Germans, capitalizing on his two best chances for the winning goals. He had a very poor showing against Spain in the first game, but his performances have improved throughout the tournament, and he should be a menace to deal with.
PREDICTION
Tracking back to my pre-tournament post, I selected two teams from the same group to be in the final - but it was the wrong group, Group B. The Dutch were the huge disappointment of the tournament, losing all three games in the group, while Germany fell to the Italians in the semi-finals. Spain was never matched up with anyone who had the midfield power to beat them, while the Italians have responded better than imagined to the developments on and off the field. Spain have won their last two finals, both 1-0, against the Germans and the Dutch, respectively. Italy have not lost to Spain in a competitive match since 1920. Spain will have more possession in the game, but if they start without a striker, it will be difficult to get the ball past the Italian defense and world-class goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Italy's chances in this game are resting on their ability to take their chances. They did not in their first match-up with Spain or their quarterfinal against England, but did so against Germany. They will have their opportunities against an average Spanish defense, and they must take them.
Finals are often nervy, low-scoring encounters, especially in international football. I really hope it isn't because Spain can put me to sleep when they decide to just pass the ball around in circles. I think they will play their 4-6, with Fabregas up top, and if they are unable to score by the 65th minute or so, Del Bosque will throw Torres on to improve the attacking options. Italy and Spain played to a 0-0 draw in their last competitive meeting, with Spain advancing in Euro 2008 on penalties. Despite history being on the side of the Italians, I'm picking Spain in this final in a very disappointing game. I will be rooting for the Italians though, both for the entertainment and my own personal preference.
Prediction: Spain 1, Italy 0
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
UEFA Euro 2012 - Extensive Preview
The club season has come to a close and it is time for the summer's international showpiece, UEFA's Euro 2012. It should be a good, competitive tournament - it is very much up for grabs. Spain are favorites after winning the last edition as well as the 2010 World Cup. Germany and Holland are also looking strong, and after that, there is a noticeable drop-off. Hosts Poland and Ukraine are not particularly deep or full of quality, while typical powerhouses are in transition phases. England is crippled by injury, France are rebuilding from their disastrous World Cup campaign, and Italy are in the midst of another scandal. There could be a dark horse this year, but the three favorites should go deep in this tournament.
GROUP A
Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic
Who will advance: Poland, Russia
Why:
Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.
GROUP B
Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark
Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands
Why:
This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.
GROUP C
Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland
Who will advance: Spain, Italy
Why:
Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.
GROUP D
Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France
Who will advance: France, England
Why:
Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.
KNOCKOUT STAGES
I have created a bracket based on my predictions:
FINAL
Teams: Netherlands v Germany
Who will win: Germany
Why:
The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.
These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.
Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1
I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.
GROUP A
Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic
Who will advance: Poland, Russia
Why:
Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.
GROUP B
Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark
Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands
Why:
This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.
GROUP C
Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland
Who will advance: Spain, Italy
Why:
Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.
GROUP D
Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France
Who will advance: France, England
Why:
Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.
KNOCKOUT STAGES
I have created a bracket based on my predictions:
FINAL
Teams: Netherlands v Germany
Who will win: Germany
Why:
The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.
These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.
Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1
I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.
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