UEFA Champions League: Semifinal Preview

Once again, Spain continues to place its stamp on European competition. Two Spanish clubs find their place in the semifinals of the Champions League, while Sevilla and Valencia face off in the Europa League. England, Germany, Italy and Portugal each have just one representative left in European competition. It’s difficult to determine which domestic league is the best, but by this criterion, La Liga is clearly supreme. I think it’s difficult to definitively say that it is, just because the league has been dominated so thoroughly by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade, and when you look at the overall depth of the league, it starts to run dry after third or fourth place most years. This year, it is nearly indisputable that La Liga has been the best – Atletico has been a positive surprise, and Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad are all solid teams. While the Premier League has been regarded recently as the best in the world because of the massive investment and increasing parity from top to bottom, the quality of Spanish football must be recognized. Great strides have been made in Spain this year, but will any Spanish sides come home with European silverware?  

Semifinal matchups:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

A true matchup of world football giants, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet for the second time in three years in the Champions League semifinals. Two years ago, it was Bayern who took a 2-1 lead in the first leg in Munich through a last-minute strike from Mario Gomez, but Real replied with two early goals at the Bernabeu, only for Bayern to equalize from the spot. It was the spot that decided the tie, as three of Real’s four penalty takers missed (including a horrific effort from Sergio Ramos) and Bayern won the shootout, 3-1. Overall it was a very even tie, and with many of the big names still playing a starting role in the sides, I expect another even tilt.

One thing that has changed is the coaching staffs at each club. That matchup in 2012 featured Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho at Real, with retired treble winner Jupp Heynckes at Bayern. Carlo Ancelotti leads Madrid now, while former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola has taken charge at Bayern. Both coaches have considerable experience at this level, as they, along with Mourinho, are vying to become the second coach in history to win three Champions League crowns. 

I think this tie favors Bayern Munich, but they will have a huge advantage if Ronaldo’s injury affects his play, or prevents him from playing altogether. It would be difficult to see him missing the match entirely, but players vary on their ability to play through injury. Ronaldo is the best player remaining in the competition, and if Real are to make the final, he will have to be the catalyst. Bayern’s defense has been anything but convincing, and while Guardiola has always been known for his attacking prowess rather than building an organized defense, they still have a sizeable advantage over Madrid. Mistake-prone players like Sergio Ramos and Pepe still play significant minutes at the heart of Real’s defense, and their showing in Dortmund will be met with similar punishment if they repeat that performance against the Bavarians. Speaking of Dortmund, they waxed a full-strength Bayern 3-0 in Munich last weekend. Neither side looks all that intimidating in the defensive third. 

I like Bayern in this matchup because I think they provide more ways to break you down. Madrid have a wealth of attacking players, and Gareth Bale has come into form during the second half of the season, but I don’t know how much they will trouble Bayern if Ronaldo is not playing at full strength. They are used to having a lion's share of the ball, and they won't against Bayern. Both sides conceded two goals in the last round – Bayern gave up a magnificent header to Nemanja Vidic off of a corner, and a rocket to Patrice Evra from open play, while Real produced an awful back header and a giveaway in midfield. My point is that Bayern are less mistake-prone at the back and have more solidity in their game plan than Real does. With more of the ball, and likely more of the chances, I see Bayern making their third straight finals appearance.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 3 Bayern Munich (2 – 1 H, 0 – 2 A)

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid has been nothing short of outstanding under Diego Simeone. He has already won the Europa League, UEFA Super Cup (against Chelsea) and Copa Del Rey since joining the club in December 2011. It’s also worth noting that despite their success, they’ve had several stars join other clubs (Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan, Falcao as a few examples) and they have been in financial trouble for years. Chelsea haven’t had any financial issues since Roman Abramovich bought the club, and despite Mourinho’s best efforts to lower expectations for the season, the club found itself in the thick of the Premier League title race for much of the year and now competing in the semi-finals of the European Cup.

The clubs have faced one another three times in the last five years; twice in the group stage of the 2009-10 UEFA Champions League, and in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco. Chelsea won 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, while the teams drew 2-2 in Madrid. The Super Cup was won decisively by Atletico, a 4-1 drubbing coming courtesy of a first-half Falcao hat-trick. With these sides, I would not put much stock into the past results – some of Chelsea’s longest-tenured players are still around but hardly any of Atletico’s are. Mourinho only lost to Atletico once in his three years at Real – it was his last game, the final of last year’s Copa Del Rey, with Atletico winning 2-1. All six La Liga games were won by Real, with the aggregate score 16:4. 

While Chelsea showed their typical character in grinding out the result against PSG, they have to play a lot better to get through this tie. Atletico suffocated Barcelona’s attacking front with surprising ease, and have conceded just once in each knockout round tie. With the opportunities Atletico has been creating all season, and the improving health of Diego Costa, I don’t see one goal being good enough for Chelsea to move on to the final. Samuel Eto'o will not play in Madrid, meaning it will be up to Fernando Torres or Demba Ba to lead the lines away from home.

This tie will likely be won at the Vicente Calderon. Atletico have conceded just nine goals in 17 home games in La Liga this season – a very similar record to PSG’s. The difference is La Liga is one of the top three leagues on the globe. It’s going to be very difficult for Chelsea to create chances with the way Atletico pressure them, and if Eden Hazard is forced to miss the first leg, Chelsea will be short of attacking options. Diego Godin and Miranda are going to be hot commodities this off season, and with Atletico normally looking to take profits on players, they could easily be moving on this summer. But this defensive unit, along with Chelsea loanee Thibault Courtois, has been one of the best in Europe in recent years.

Does Chelsea's loss against Sunderland have any effect on this tie? I'm not sure. In one sense, it allows them to focus squarely on European competition, but losing at home to the team at the bottom of the table can never be seen as a positive. I think they will be sluggish early in Madrid, but they have more than enough quality and experience to steady themselves. This is going to be another dead-even tie, but I give Chelsea the edge because I think they match up well with Atletico's attack and displayed a suffocating home advantage in the quarterfinals. I don't expect them to be in as deep of a hole this time around. Don't expect many goals either - both coaches will be happy to grind this one out.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.

UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

Overall everything went as planned - I expected to see all of these teams go through and with the exception of Man United, it had looked that way through the first leg. Am I surprised United were able to overturn the 2-0 deficit against Olympiakos? No, but I am surprised at the performance from the Greeks. United have been fragile at home all season and Olympiakos just sat back and let them do what they wished. As good as they were in Piraeus is how bad they were at Old Trafford, and United live on in the competition - winning it is their only hope of reappearing next year.

At this point, any teams can be drawn against one another, whereas teams were disqualified from playing each other in the last round if they were in the same group or from the same country. Only four countries have representatives left - Spain (3), England (2), Germany (2) and France (1). The matchups are as follows - the first team listed is home for the first leg:

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea
Manchester United - Bayern Munich

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

Very interesting matchup - Atletico currently lead La Liga by one point over Barcelona. They have met three times already this season, with all three resulting in draws and just two goals being scored. Both teams are known for their offensive firepower, but these two sides are the top two defensive teams in La Liga. Given the stage, I wouldn't expect things to open up. Goals are going to be few and far between.

Although I have never been a huge fan of Victor Valdes, his season-ending injury puts Barcelona in a difficult position. Their defensive record is more due to their midfield than their defense, and teams that are able to counter Barcelona effectively and bypass that midfield are usually able to find the net. In their meetings this season, Atletico have pressed Barca in midfield, forcing them to play quickly in the final third, but allowing the Catalans a huge majority of the ball. It is generally a massive mistake to try and over-press Barca because they can and will punish you. In this case, I think Atletico can use that strategy and force defensive errors. Diego Simeone has done an amazing job with this team and they have conceded just 9 goals in 16 home matches in the league.

This is by far the toughest matchup to pick. I am going to pick Barcelona just because they have more experience at this stage, and with a better attacking force, they are more likely to make Atletico pay for a momentary lapse. It's really up in the air though - there has been nothing to separate the two sides this season. Valdes' injury leaves Barca even more vulnerable at the back, and against a tough Atletico defense, they could be in trouble if they don't leave the Camp Nou with a lead. I think they will, and their task will be to hold on at the Vicente Calderon.

Prediction: Barcelona 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid (1 – 0 H, 1 – 1 A)

Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund

They meet again. Real Madrid fell 4-3 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund in last year's semifinals, but they will get another shot at Jurgen Klopp's side, this time playing at home first. After leading the league for a good portion of the last few months, two successive defeats have made Real outsiders to claim the title. Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his Champions League-leading 13 goals this term against a side that allowed four goals over two games in the previous round. I've spoken quite a bit about my disdain for Bayern's behavior in the transfer market, and the brunt of their moves have been aimed at Dortmund. They simply aren't the same team. Their 5-4 aggregate victory over a weak Zenit side in the last round is an illustration of their regression from their elite sides of the past few years.

Although this matchup looks like a grudge match for Real Madrid, I think this will come a lot easier for them than it may appear. They were nervous last year at home after being battered 4-1 at Dortmund, and still managed to win 2-0 and nearly squeak through. This year's Dortmund team is not nearly as good, and this year's Real team should be going for broke in the Champions League after falling off the pace in La Liga. Dortmund are in second place in the Bundesliga, but their confidence has been sapped by the Robert Lewandowski saga. They haven't hit the level they played at last season, and they needed everything they had to get by Real at that point. Now, they won't have Lewandowski in the first leg because of suspension and the rest of the team, especially the defense, has been far less impressive. Real can put this tie to bed in at the Bernabeu and not have to worry about their traditionally poor record in Germany (although they did crush Schalke 6-1 in the last round). For Dortmund, they must show the form that got them to last year's final and must do so without one of their best players in the first leg. Heavy advantage for Madrid here.

Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund (3 – 0 H, 1 – 2 A)

PSG - Chelsea

This is the matchup the public was likely hoping for, as Laurent Blanc's upstart PSG side take on Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. There has been quite a bit said in the press about this matchup, as players from each club have ties to the other side. Eden Hazard has ties to PSG from his childhood, while Lucas Moura spoke highly of both him and Oscar to the press after the draw. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Jose Mourinho before, and the two won Serie A together and had a good relationship during their short spell together at Inter.

I expect Chelsea to play very defensively in the first match. Mourinho has exited the Champions League in the semi finals in each of the past three seasons, and in the last two, he has gotten caught playing too openly away from home. Last year's 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund put his Real side in a near-impossible position, and although they came close with a 2-0 win, it was hardly a classic Mourinho tie. He wants low-scoring, tight, defensive battles because he disciplines his teams in the final third. Chelsea have struggled at times away from home this season, and with PSG sporting a 42:5 goal tally at home in Ligue 1, it would be wise to avoid being too aggressive. PSG can be deadly in attack, but have yet to consistently dominate as an attacking force. However, with Zlatan in the team, goals can come from nothing. Chelsea does have the right players to match up with him - both Gary Cahill and John Terry are big, experienced center backs who play a physical brand of defense. But no player is a "good" matchup against Zlatan and he scored four goals against England in 2012 with Cahill in the lineup. It's best of luck to whoever is trying to stop him.

PSG and Chelsea are very similar sides and this tie will be decided by which forwards take their limited chances or by a moment of brilliance. There is world class talent across the board so anything is possible. Chelsea are at a clear disadvantage in the forward position and have struggled to find goals away from home. Their defense has been tested on this stage many times and they will be trying to get to the point where they can win the tie at Stamford Bridge. PSG must establish an advantage at home to get through to the next round. I think they're one year away from getting over this hurdle. They are not tested frequently enough in Ligue 1, with only Monaco somewhat close, and they are now without Falcao due to his knee injury. Chelsea should find themselves in the semifinals as long as they are not overrun in the first leg by PSG's prolific attacking force.

Prediction: PSG 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Manchester United - Bayern Munich

When Philipp Lahm said that he was "happy" with the draw against Manchester United, he was not talking about a big club matchup. United's shambolic season made them the most attractive draw, and they are now in the hands of the favorites to win the trophy. David Moyes has been under constant pressure in the media all season, and although most United fans still back him, most observers (such as myself) think that he is in over his head. They will also be without Robin Van Persie due to injury. Bayern are rolling through the Bundesliga and have dropped only six points all season, drawing three games and losing none while winning twenty-five. They are playing like the machine they were built to be, and have very rarely shown weakness.

I can never say impossible in the Champions League, but I can't see anything but a Bayern victory in this tie. United are anything but united, and even their victories fail to really encourage the idea of a turnaround in fortunes for Moyes. Their victory over Olympiakos was largely due to some individual brilliance from Van Persie and some poor tactics from an inexperienced opposing manager. They will have neither in this tie. Pep Guardiola has inherited some of the best teams and players of this generation, but he has won practically everything and has this Bayern team playing at a stunningly high level. Bayern will dominate both matches in this tie and I would be surprised to see them win the tie by fewer than three goals. They were exposed a bit by Hoffenheim last weekend in a 3-3 draw, but that was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season, and they were clearly looking ahead to this tie by resting starters. I'm going to be hoping United knock the Bavarians out - it would be a monumental upset. Not hoping too hard though.

Prediction: Manchester United 1 – 5 Bayern Munich (0 – 2 H, 1 – 3 A)

UEFA Champions League 1st Leg Recap

Results

Arsenal 0-2 Bayern Munich
Manchester City 0-2 Barcelona
AC Milan 0-1 Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen 0-4 PSG
Zenit St. Petersburg 2-4 Borussia Dortmund
Olympiakos 2-0 Manchester United
Galatasaray 1-1 Chelsea
Schalke 1-6 Real Madrid

The Arsenal - Bayern match was an interesting one, featuring two tamely struck penalties (neither of which went in) as well as a red card to Arsenal goalie Wojciech Szczesny. The best part of it was the calls were all correct, and despite Arsenal fans' booing of Arjen Robben throughout the second half, they must feel it was a sending off. Arsenal are up against it again heading to Munich, and with Mesut Ozil seeming out of sorts, and the team enduring another February of troubles, who knows which Arsenal team shows up. I have to say I did not expect any kind of good performance last year when they headed to Munich down 3-1, but they put in a spirited performance and only lost on away goals. However, that is Arsenal's problem - they "play well" or "play nice football" but they don't win anything. Arsene Wenger is without a doubt one of the best coaches in Premier League history, but again I must question his decisions in big matches. He plays Yaya Sanogo in his second start for the club over Olivier Giroud, who has scored 12 goals in the Premier League this season - good for fifth in the league. How can you not go with the experience? Sanogo did not play badly, but Wenger made another decision that left him open for questioning, and again it did not pan out. As for the Ozil penalty, that is usually more up to the players than the manager, but I would not have had a German take a penalty against Neuer. Santi Cazorla would have been my choice. I know Arteta was unavailable and he is their normal penalty-taker, but that was a decision that really hurt Arsenal.

City also had a man sent off but really did nothing against Barcelona. Maybe having Aguero back will help them in Spain but it's going to be very difficult. Barca are specialists in drawing teams out and then destroying them with a quick move. City are probably going to need three, or maybe even four to get through. I don't get why DeMichelis is playing over Lescott. Messi is going to give any defender troubles but having a central defender as slow as DeMichelis was asking for disaster. The guy has always been mistake-prone. City have looked very poor at the back at points during this season, and that just does not work in the Champions League.

PSG hammered Bayer Leverkusen, as expected. It's really pathetic what Bayern Munich have reduced the German league to. Schalke were completely smashed as well. I'd love to give Real more credit, as they are surely contenders for the trophy, but Schalke were really, really poor. There was so much space at the back. It looked like a cup game between a first-division side and a third-division one. Real were absolutely clinical though - this was the second time they have scored six goals in just four away matches in Europe this season. At least Dortmund can still put in a good performance, although Zenit were predictably awful. Yuck.

As for Man United, it's just another day at the office. Being a Chelsea supporter, I am certainly sympathetic to giving a manager some time, but these kind of pathetic performances are what gets a manager fired. First of all, this particularly abject performance was the poorest I've seen from United this season. Tom Cleverley and Chris Smalling don't deserve to be wearing the shirt after their respective performances. They just plain sucked. The whole team was full of unforced, sloppy errors and they didn't really build much of anything over the course of the game. United reminds me of a worse version of Chelsea from two years ago - and the commonplace is a coach who is in over his head. Roberto DiMatteo was lucky, and the team came through with a wild and fortunate Champions League crown - David Moyes is not so lucky, and he will surely not be around much longer if this trend continues. I blame this loss more on the players, but it doesn't change how Moyes sets up this team. He has taken a team that has played through the middle for years and tried to turn it into a West Ham-like long-ball crossing team. It's ridiculous. For me, the number one thing for a manager is knowing your players, and Moyes clearly has no clue that he hasn't got a huge center forward out there. Van Persie is disgusted and rightfully so (though he should learn how to use his right foot.) United were nervous, tentative, and never gave their opponent any trouble despite having the superior talent and experience.

All that being said, Olympiakos played very well. Given the premium quality that will be waiting in the next round, it's hard to see Olympiakos going much further - but they were solid from beginning to end. They needed to keep a clean sheet and did, and now have placed all of the pressure on their opponents for the return leg. Joel Campbell supplied a wonderful strike to set the tone for the second half, and they showed better on-the-ball awareness than United did. They play in a weak league and rack up a bunch of meaningless wins, but Olympiakos play with a load of confidence. The atmosphere was electric, and this was far less of a shock than the general media suggested. Stay tuned here - there is a long way to go in this tie, but Olympiakos were willing to be aggressive and it paid off, something that will help them as their run continues.

As for Chelsea, they were okay, but nothing special. At the very least, they're ahead in the tie. Chelsea dominated the first half and could have been out of sight, but Gala really took the game to them in the second half and earned a deserved draw. Gala even had a few chances to take the lead heading to England, but that would have been harsh. I don't disagree with Jose Mourinho often - but I would have liked to see Schurrle stay on longer. I understand taking a slim lead to the Bridge, and having Mikel on to stabilize the midfield allowed them to achieve that, but I feel that in Europe you have to take the initiative when you can, and if Chelsea could have nabbed a second goal, Gala would have to score twice in Chelsea's fortress. They had quite a bit of space to work with throughout the game, and their pace was clearly giving Gala problems. Even if they had conceded again and been down 2-1, they would have felt good about going through. I just would have tried to put some more pressure on Gala. Now it's all to play for in London, but Jose has the situation he wants - a clean sheet and his team are through.

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - Preview

This is the part of the season that really separates the men from the boys. There are clear favorites at this stage, but you can make a case for nine or ten teams finding their way to the final. Bayern must be seen as favorites, but all of this season's group winners are very good teams. The marquee matchup is between Manchester City and Barcelona. These are two of the finest attacking squads in Europe but it may come down defense and injuries to see who goes through. Arsenal and Bayern Munich play again after last year’s 3-3 draw, with Bayern advancing on away goals and ultimately winning the competition. Here is a preview of all eight matchups:

Manchester City – Barcelona

Manchester City and Barcelona are now household names in world football. Both have hovered around the top spot in their domestic table this year, and both possess devastating attacking talent. Lionel Messi and Neymar have been household names for years, especially on their home continent of South America. The likes of Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo are beginning to catch similar attention across the world. City are on pace for a record-breaking goals tally in the Premier League, despite a number of injuries, while Barcelona are annually ranked first or second in goals in La Liga. So this tie is set for a load of goals, right?

Wrong. This is a two-legged European knockout, and teams are very resistant to opening the play up like they do at home. I do expect to see goals, but expectations should be tempered. If Aguero misses one or both legs, it will force Manuel Pelligrini to play differently - his side are not nearly as potent without Aguero. He is certainly out for the first leg. Barcelona have been playing the same way for years, but last year they were exposed in a humiliating way by Bayern Munich. After adding Neymar, Barca are back to being one of the world’s most feared sides, but their away form is still shaky abroad. Their aggregate score in three group games away from home is just 3 – 3, with one win, one draw, and one loss. Meanwhile, Barcelona scored 13 goals in three wins at home. With Aguero sitting out, I would consider Barcelona to be a strong favorite. I can see City squeaking out a win at home – their form at the Etihad has been nearly unblemished. Regardless, I’m going to take Barcelona to advance to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Manchester City 3 – 5 Barcelona (2 – 1 H, 1 – 4 A)

Olympiacos – Manchester United

This is one of the most intriguing ties of the round, because you could see it going a lot of ways. Manchester United are struggling, but they have always seemed to find their way out when it seems they are most doomed. This season has been a different story so far – one devastating loss follows another, and United are in serious danger of missing next year’s Champion’s League. Olympiacos are somewhat of an unknown entity. The Greek league is one-horse race, and there isn’t much other quality in the league other than Olympiacos. They performed well in the group, knocking out a good Benfica side. They did look overmatched against PSG, but the team can certainly compete with some of the better ones in Europe.

United have been battered by injuries this season, and while this year was always going to be one of transition after the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, their fans expected better, and for good reason. United’s struggles are due to both player underperformance and poor management decisions. The issue with projecting their future performance is that the potential is there for the side that won last year’s Premier League to reemerge. The sale of Kostas Mitroglou to Fulham will hurt Olympiacos. The Greeks have long been known for their defense, but he was the focal point of an attacking unit that could have caused Manchester United quite a bit of problems. Without him, United will face less pressure, which is precisely the way they would like it. It will be difficult to come out of Greece with the lead, but United are strong candidates for the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Olympiacos 2 – 4 Manchester United (1 – 1 H, 1 – 3 A)

AC Milan – Atletico Madrid

This matchup features two teams moving in different directions. AC Milan are in full-on rebuilding mode, adding new coach Clarence Seedorf and preaching a policy of training through the youth system. It makes their decision to retain some of their older players, as well as bring in the aging Michael Essien, all the more puzzling, but Milan, who sit in ninth place, are in need of a major overhaul. On the other hand, Atletico are flying high in La Liga, currently top of the league with Real and Barca. The future of several of their players remains up in the air, but this is nothing new for a club that has been poached for talent over the past decade. This team is very, very good and does not make many mistakes. A recent home loss to Almeria led to questions about the squad’s durability, but their brief three-game losing streak, which included two cup losses to Real, seems to be just a slight hiccup.

It’s hard to count out any squad AC Milan puts on the field. This team has quite a bit of talent, and as with any team, there is always the chance that they can make things click. They haven’t been able to all season, as constant speculation about the club’s big players, as well as the departure of Massimiliano Allegri, have made it one to forget. The club's European pedigree makes it so you can't completely count them out, but they are going to be pressured constantly. Atletico have displayed ruthless form in La Liga and the Champions League, and I expect nothing to change here. Maybe Milan will fool us into thinking they can contend during the first leg, but Atletico should find themselves heading through.

Prediction: AC Milan 1 – 5 Atletico Madrid (1 – 2 H, 0 – 3 A)

Bayer Leverkusen – Paris Saint-Germain

There isn’t too much to say about this matchup other than that it will be a very difficult one for Bayer Leverkusen. There is a huge dropoff between Bayern, Dortmund, and the rest of the Bundesliga, even if it doesn't display in the league standings. Bayer is a good team, and they can certainly cause PSG some issues in Germany, but PSG will be heavy favorites to advance. Loaded with attacking talent, PSG are top of Ligue 1, five points ahead of Monaco. Their only loss in the group stage was their final game against Benfica, which was meaningless to them. This tie could be over very quickly – Bayer have not played well against big sides in this competition in recent years and have endured some very heavy defeats. PSG doesn’t always show its superiority on the final scoreline, but I would expect them to do so here. It would be shocking not to see the French side in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 6 Paris Saint-Germain (1 – 2 H, 1 – 4 A)

Galatasaray – Chelsea

This tie would be more suited for an off-season friendly than a crucial Champions League knockout. Didier Drogba makes his return to Stamford Bridge in the second leg with Gala as his new club knocked out Juventus to reach this stage. If you gave Chelsea the choice, they would have selected a matchup with the Turks, as Juve stand top of Serie A and gave the Blues fits last year. Chelsea won four of their six games in the group, but lost two puzzling games to FC Basel, whom they acquired Mohamed Salah from last month.

Turkey is never a fun place for any team to travel, and this Galatasaray team has players with Champions League experience. However, they struggled quite a bit against Real Madrid, and despite beating Juventus 1-0, they advanced through the group with just seven points and a minus-6 goal differential. If there’s anything a Jose Mourinho-Chelsea team knows, it’s how to grind out results. This away fixture will be one of them, and I don’t expect many goals in this tie overall. Chelsea would be surprised to see their European season end so early, and after navigating two tight games they should find themselves in the next round.

Prediction: Galatasaray 1– 3 Chelsea (0 – 1 H, 1 – 2 A)

Schalke 04 – Real Madrid

Perhaps the most lobsided draw of the round of 16, German side Schalke face Real Madrid as significant underdogs. Schalke star Julian Draxler was the subject of transfer speculation throughout the month of January, and it looks like he could be headed for an exit this summer. Schalke are in a respectable fourth place in the Bundesliga, but with an injury to Draxler, it’s hard to see them overcoming this elite Real side. Madrid are tied with Atletico and Barcelona (they trail Barca on goal difference) in La Liga, but possess some of the world’s best talent, led by Cristiano Ronaldo. The Ballon D’Or winner has been relatively quiet lately, which by his standards is the absence of constant headlines.

Schalke have been a good side for the last few years but have shown themselves incapable of really competing with the top sides on the big stage. Leverkusen have had the same problem. Whereas Bayern and Dortmund have showcased a higher level of play throughout the last three years, Schalke has been left behind, in somewhat of a shadow. Real have really turned it on in the last few weeks, making up a deficit in La Liga to affirm a lengthy title push. Real should crush Schalke to advance.

Prediction: Schalke 2 – 7 Real Madrid (1 – 3 H, 1 – 4 A)

Zenit St. Petersburg – Borussia Dortmund

Zenit accumulated the fewest points of any of the teams in the round of sixteen, gaining just six points in the six games, with a minus-4 goal differential. In a group featuring Atletico Madrid, FC Porto, and Austria Vienna, Zenit were thoroughly unimpressive – they scored just five goals, failed to win a game at home and progressed despite getting hammered 4-1 by group stage minnows Vienna. Dortmund came from a third-placed position after four matches to win the group. We have seen Dortmund’s credentials displayed proudly the past few years, and despite the negativity around the club regarding outgoing transfers, they have the ability to reach the final for the second consecutive year.

If it wasn’t outlined clearly enough above, these two teams are not close in terms of ability. While Russia is not an easy place to travel, Dortmund should have no trouble advancing through this tie. Zenit haven’t shown anything to suggest they would defeat any of the other teams in this stage, not to mention one of the best ones in Dortmund. Dortmund has not been as strong this season as the last three, but with the speculation surrounding Lewandowski over, they can simply get on with their season. It will be very difficult for Zenit to keep this tie close.

Prediction: Zenit St. Petersburg 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund (1 – 2 H, 0 – 2 A)

Arsenal – Bayern Munich

In a rematch from last season’s knockout round, Arsenal and Bayern Munich meet again. Arsenal are at the true testing point of their season. February has annually been a month of disappointment for the club, but this year they have their best-equipped squad for quite some time. Mesut Ozil has been well worth his transfer fee this summer, but his as well as the squad’s form has dipped over the last few weeks. Arsenal will need to display their early season creativity in order to break through Bayern. Bayern have been dominating the Bundesliga and have placed a 16-point cushion between themselves and the rest of the league. With world-class talent and depth at every position, Bayern are favorites to retain their title.

I think Arsenal are better than they were last year, and I think Bayern are worse. I don’t see Bayern being tested on a weekly basis in Germany like Arsenal are in the Premier League. Bayern have monopolized the Bundesliga to the point where it isn’t really worth watching. While that is a tribute to their own greatness, it is also due to their imperialistic transfer policy within the league. The other teams just can’t hold onto their players. In England, Arsenal are deadlocked in a four-way race for the title, where six points separate the sides. I think they are as well-positioned as ever to go through here. But I don’t think they will. Arsenal haven’t gotten over the hump against other big clubs yet, and until they do so, it’s hard to back them to knock out the trophy holders. They certainly won’t be intimidated, and came very close to knocking Bayern out last year, and will likely come up just short again.

Prediction: Arsenal 3 – 4 Bayern Munich (2 – 2 H, 1 – 2 A)

2014 FIFA World Cup Qualification Update - 21 Teams In

All of the group stages for qualification to next summer’s World Cup are finished. 21 places have been clinched, while the final 11 will be decided through playoffs. Four places belong to UEFA, five to CAF, one to the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, and one to the CONCACAF-OFC playoff. It’s the last chance for these teams to reach next year’s main event in Brazil.

AFC

Qualified: Iran (1st, Group A), South Korea (2nd, Group A), Japan (1st, Group B), Australia (2nd, Group B) 

Playoff: Jordan (3rd, Group B) – qualified to play Uruguay

No big updates here, the four qualified sides had already done so months ago. The news here is that Jordan’s opponent in the international playoff will be fifth-placed CONMEBOL side Uruguay. A victory over a two-legged tie seems just about impossible for the Middle Eastern country. Have stranger things happened? I suppose, but if Jordan knocks Uruguay out of the World Cup it would be among the biggest shocks in football history. Best of luck.  

CAF

Playoffs – First Leg Results

Ivory Coast 3:1 Senegal

Ethiopia 1:2 Nigeria

Tunisia 0:0 Cameroon

Ghana 6:1 Egypt

Burkina Faso 3:2 Algeria

Analysis: Ivory Coast are off to a strong start against Senegal, and should find their way through to the World Cup. A late away goal from Papiss Cisse gives Senegal a chance, but Ivory Coast are the best team in this region and will likely score themselves in the return leg. Nigeria received the dream draw by receiving minnows Ethiopia, and took full advantage despite falling behind early in the second half. The one-goal lead and the two away goals give Nigeria almost a sure-fire place in next summer’s tournament. Ghana absolutely hammered Egypt, leaving the second leg a mere formality. At 3-1, and even 4-1, you would give the Egyptian side a sliver of hope, but a five-goal deficit will be too much for Bob Bradley’s upstart team to overcome. A traditional powerhouse, Ghana has booked their place in Brazil. The other two ties have all to play for. Burkina Faso managed a late winner against Algeria but conceded twice, and Algeria will head home knowing a goal would send them through. Expect them to take care of Burkina Faso with far less drama than they experienced against Egypt four years ago. Tunisia was reinserted into this draw after Cape Verde fielded an ineligible player in their final group game, which the island side had won 2-0. Instead the game was ruled a forfeit, and a 3-0 win for Tunisia, sending them through to the playoffs. They played out a 0-0 draw at home which leaves everything in the balance for next month’s decider in Cameroon. This one will be very tough to call, but Cameroon will be slight favorites to qualify.

CONCACAF

Qualified: United States (1st), Costa Rica (2nd), Honduras (3rd)

Playoff: Mexico (4th)

The United States and Costa Rica qualified last month, while Honduras joined them with a win against the Costa Ricans. Mexico will play in the intercontinental playoff against New Zealand after finishing fourth in the group.

Mexico was pathetic in this qualification round. It always seemed like the Mexicans would turn it around in time to qualify for next summer’s tournament, but are now in the playoff thanks to, of all teams, the United States. Two injury-time goals gave the US a 3-2 win over Panama, which was inconsequential to their position but knocked the Panamanians out. They would have advanced on goals scored had they won 2-1. As it is, Mexico gets to play a New Zealand team that is stronger than Asian playoff side Jordan, but not very tough. This is a tie Mexico should win easily, but can we really expect that at this point? Two wins from ten in qualifying, just seven goals scored, and four goalless draws support the idea that Mexico is still ripe for the picking. Will they actually fall? I doubt it, but even if they do qualify for next summer’s tournament, how can they expect to make any kind of impact? At the very least, Mexico must record a heavy victory over the two legs to instill some confidence before next summer. That is, if they make it.

CONMEBOL

Qualified: Brazil (host), Argentina (1st), Colombia (2nd), Chile (3rd), Ecuador (4th)

Playoff: Uruguay (5th)

Argentina qualified last month, and Colombia joined them after a 3-3 draw against Chile in their second-to-last match. Chile qualified with a win over Ecuador, who also qualified on goal difference over Uruguay. It has to be a huge disappointment for Uruguay not to automatically qualify, but their performances are improving and they get an easy matchup with Jordan in the playoffs. Uruguay will be in next year’s tournament, and I see them as one of maybe two or three sides that could eliminate hosts Brazil.

OFC

Playoff: New Zealand (1st)

New Zealand qualified for the playoff last March with a win over New Caledonia. New Zealand have made significant strides over the past decade, and they qualified for the last World Cup through the playoffs. This time around, they play Mexico instead of Bahrain, which is clearly a tougher task. I expect the tie to be closer than perhaps any other time in history, as Mexico are struggling to find any positive results, and New Zealand are well-rested and their domestic league, where most of their internationals play, is improving. It would still be quite the upset, but New Zealand should be able to hang around the Mexicans.

UEFA

Qualified: Belgium (Group A), Italy (Group B), Germany (Group C), Netherlands (Group D), Switzerland (Group E), Russia (Group F), Bosnia & Herzegovina (Group G), England (Group H), Spain (Group I)

Playoffs: Croatia (Group A), Sweden (Group C), Romania (Group D), Iceland (Group E), Portugal (Group F), Greece (Group G), Ukraine (Group H), France (Group I) (Note: Denmark did not qualify despite finishing second in Group B. They had the worst record among second-placed teams when discounting games against the group’s sixth-place opponent.)

Russia reached the World Cup finals automatically despite being drawn from Pot 2, while Belgium, Switzerland and Bosnia came from even further down, having been drawn from Pot 3. Overall there aren’t too many shocks up there – I expected the Swiss to win Group E, Portugal always choke in qualifying and Russia took advantage, Bosnia’s only real competition in Group G was Greece, and Belgium have one of the best young teams in the world. The most striking country still left has to be Iceland, who were drawn from Pot 6 – the worst pot in UEFA. Ranked a lowly 121 when the pots were drawn, Iceland are now a two-game aggregate tie away from one of the most improbable trips to Brazil. They would be the smallest country in history to qualify if they progress. There aren’t too many household names on the team, one of the noticeable being Tottenham’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. They had some missteps, including giving Cyprus their only win, but secured seventeen points from their ten games. Congrats to Iceland on their achievements.

Norway again top the list of disappointments, as they failed to take advantage of what was by far the softest group in qualifying, Group E. The Norwegians didn’t deserve to be in Pot 1 anyway, but they were brutal in a group that gave them their best chance to qualify for a major tournament in perhaps their entire history. Turkey was also among the underachievers, falling three points short of the playoffs and finishing behind Romania and Hungary. The Turks have been a big disappointment since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008.

The playoffs are as follows (home team for first game is listed first):

Portugal vs Sweden

Ukraine vs France

Greece vs Romania

Iceland vs Croatia

I would expect to see Portugal, France, Greece, and Croatia in next year's World Cup. Iceland got the draw that gives them the best chance, as an out-of-form and coachless Croatia limp into the playoffs. Greece face Romania in a tie that will likely feature two or three goals between the two games. Ukraine got the unlucky draw by playing France, but it will be very tight. Ukraine are an underrated side because of their youth. One of Ronaldo or Zlatan will miss out on Brazil and you have to feel for Zlatan - his supporting cast isn't nearly as good. Portugal have advanced through the playoffs twice in a row and should be able to do so again.