WORLD CUP - Group Stage Roundup and Knockout Stage Preview

The group stages brought considerably more excitement than anyone expected. International football is usually predicated around playing “not-to-lose” instead of free-flowing attacking football seen more commonly on the club level. It was certainly fun to watch.  Four teams were perfect, while three picked up zero points. Fairly balanced overall, I would say. 

South America dominated and CONCACAF was very strong, while Asia failed to win a game and Europe struggled. Playing at home is still as important as ever. I still see Brazil winning, but they will have to improve.

Group A

I expected Brazil and Mexico to advance, and the results in this group went as I would have expected. Croatia is a better team than Mexico, but I’ve spoken in lengths about European struggles in South America, and with a roaring pro-Mexico crowd behind them, the Mexicans swept aside their more esteemed opponents in fifteen minutes with a three goal spurt. The 0-0 result between the advancing sides was not as surprising to me – Mexico had been solid defensively throughout qualifying and they had a good showing from their fans, which took a little bit of the swagger out of Brazil’s sails. Their goalkeeper Ochoa also played the game of his life and probably earned himself a big paycheck at the club level. 

Croatia were good, but just not good enough in their pivotal game. They were unlucky against Brazil on the penalty call, but already had the fortune of collecting an own goal in the first half. Cameroon was just plain ugly. They looked overmatched on paper to begin with, but the fighting between players and the constant distraction of Samuel Eto’o just turned their campaign into a complete disaster. They exit the World Cup with no points and a -8 goal differential, worst in the tournament. It’s time to blow up the team and start over. 

Group B

Well, well. Mighty Spain was bounced after just two games, officially ending the Spain-Barcelona era of dominance. I think it was ended by Brazil last summer after they hammered the Spanish 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final, but there are no questions about that now. Spain were slow and sloppy throughout their first two matches, and they played two very opportunistic opponents who took full advantage. The FA should not fire Del Bosque, but this team must use more pace and less finesse to return to the top. Rumors of Xavi moving to the UAE from Barcelona this summer say it all for Spain.

Meanwhile, the Dutch won all three of their games and looked very dangerous in doing so. Goals came from all sides and Louis Van Gaal’s youngsters even defended quite well against Chile. Mexico will be a tough test, but Holland looks on top of their game at the moment. Chile also impressed, as their forwards ran circles around Australia and Spain. It doesn’t look good as they must play Brazil, but Chile will know their opponents and would probably prefer to counter attack anyway. I expect a close match. Australia played generally well, and Tim Cahill probably has the goal of the tournament at this point, but unfortunately for the Socceroos, it didn’t even earn them a point. They were always going to be up against it with the quality of opposition in this group, and with a young team, I expect bright things for Australia in the future. 

Group C

Colombia legitimately “wow-ed” me in the group stage. They crushed Greece, gritted out a win against Ivory Coast and blew out Japan for a +7 goal differential in what I thought was a pretty evenly matched group. This team proved it is not the Falcao show. They have made a ton of progress over the last four years. Greece qualified in the only way they know how to – look absolutely brutal but come up with a goal or two in the vital moments to sneak through. They certainly aren’t bad, but their only two goals came on a slip and a penalty, and while I’m aware they were down to ten men against Japan, they looked like they were headed straight home after two games. As it is, they face an inexperienced Costa Rica team that plays mostly on the counter. Can anybody give me a case that the result of that game isn’t 0-0?

Ivory Coast has fooled me for the last time. I won’t pick them again until I see tangible results on the intercontinental level. They looked good against Japan despite getting off to a slow start, but were just not good enough against a less-talented but harder working Colombia side, and were just off the pace against Greece. The only reason they won’t be looked down upon more is because in their same group, Japan was the bigger disappointment. They failed to hold a lead in their first game, only came close to breaking down ten-man Greece once, and were completely outclassed against Colombia. I thought this was the best team in Asia and maybe they are, but that really shows how far AFC is behind the rest of the world. One point from your “best” team is a bad sign, and every team from AFC is out of the competition already, with no wins between the four sides. 

Group D

Costa Rica are the current darlings of the tournament, written off as the “fourth” team in the group but playing very well and winning the group with two wins and a draw. I thought they were better than people gave them credit for but certainly not good enough to beat two of the best sides in the world. They’re not going to take anyone by surprise at this point but it’s been a great showing so far from the Costa Ricans. 

Uruguay’s success is tied to Luis Suarez in my mind, and with him suspended, I would consider their chances pretty much finished. There’s something mentally wrong with Suarez, and it’s a shame because he’s one of the top strikers in the world. A four-month ban is just, and even though it may get reduced, he has forever soured his reputation in the international community. It’s also very strange that he actually has bit someone on a soccer field at least three times (I would guess that’s happened more before he was famous). Italy were unlucky but were also poor against Costa Rica and failed to score outside of their first match. They were very disappointing for me as I expected Balotelli to play better, but following Bryan Ruiz’s goal I never saw the same flow from Italy’s midfield. It’s a puzzling exit but certainly not a disgraceful one. This team will be able to challenge for the trophy in the next European tournament. 

England is just too typical. I said they would come in last and come in last they did, despite not playing all that badly. If I can guess the scores of their final two games correctly, they are too predictable, and their media reaction was standard as well. It’s just funny how hyped up the team was in a group where they were overmatched. I feel bad for Steven Gerrard just because he lost the Premier League essentially on his slip against Chelsea and they were knocked out of the World Cup on that bizarre header he hit straight to Suarez. But England earns no sympathy from me. The results just don’t come. 

Group E

France produced two spectacular performances against Honduras and Switzerland to rave reviews. Their performance against Ecuador was more down-to-Earth, but France have still looked like one of the strongest teams thus far. They’ve attacked with pace and shown the ability to take over games. They also have a ton of depth. A possible Germany-France matchup could happen in the quarterfinals – that would be a must watch. The Swiss are through too despite getting torn apart by France, but the Swiss have quite a bit of talent, and Xherdan Shiqiri’s hat trick against Honduras was world class. That France game really puzzled me. This is a good team, and a tricky one to play against, but I’m not sure they have it in them to pull a major upset. 

Ecuador are South America’s only early exit, which speaks more of the quality of the continent’s teams than Ecuador’s faults. After the tragic death of Christian Benitez last year, it was good for the game to see Ecuador make it to the World Cup. Unfortunately, Ecuador was the least talented South American side to make it and have traditionally been much better at home, where they play at a very high altitude, versus abroad. They were still close, but that last-minute defeat to the Swiss was the killer. Honduras are simply not on the same level as the other teams in the group. They did very well to make it this far, but were simply overmatched in each game. The three losses are certainly disappointing, but not unexpected for the team. The goal for Costly against Ecuador was a nice moment. 

Group F

Argentina won all three of their games in Group F, but didn’t particularly impress in any of them. They had the weakest opponents of any of the big favorites, and won each game by a single goal. The game against Iran was particularly troubling – Iran had two great chances to score and a pretty strong penalty shout in the second half. The good news is that Messi seems to have recovered the form he lost over the last few months with Barcelona. He has been carrying the team, and the rest of the squad will have to show up if they’re going to make a deep run. Nigeria were pretty solid. They were slow and boring against Iran, but played very well against Bosnia and hit Argentina well on the counter. This team has been improving since the tournament started, and their defense produced two clean sheets. 

Bosnia were a disappointment to me – teams rarely do well on their first appearance in the World Cup, but Bosnia are loaded and should have done better. They made mistakes and were punished each time, which does not always happen, but at this level the mistakes must be eliminated. I would chalk it up mostly to inexperience, especially on the managerial level. Bosnia made it to Brazil because they played attacking football with two strikers, Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic. They started their first two games with just Dzeko, and he was noticeably stranded. In their third game they started both players and scored three goals. They will learn and continue to improve. Iran was simply happy to be in the finals, but they were actually rather impressive. They played good defense and really could have beaten Argentina. Unlucky more than poor execution from the Iranians. 

Group G

Germany stuck up for Europe and as coach Joachim Low stated, dominated. I thought they were poor against Ghana in the second half, but were dominant in their other two matches. They certainly showed up and while they do have weaknesses, this team is going to be a tough out. USA were also impressive, and even more so when you consider they lost striker Jozy Altidore twenty minutes into their first match, and their most influential player, Michael Bradley, has yet to play a good game. The last-minute concession against Portugal was devastating, but this team deserves to be through and has a dangerous feel about it. 

Ghana unraveled, with Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince-Boateng sent home before the team’s final game. They were still a goal away at one point from going through, but it never came. They were again Africa’s best hope for a deep run but came up short at the first hurdle. Portugal produced the tournament’s worst performance against Germany in their 4-0 defeat, but recovered pretty well and collected four points from their last two matches. That hole was always going to be too steep unless they beat the USA, but I did not expect Portugal to show up after the first game. Ronaldo was poor. Other than his majestic cross to Varela to steal a point, he was sloppy and wasteful. His one goal was handed to him on a silver platter and he didn’t come close to scoring one otherwise. I don’t blame him for their exit, but it is impossible to argue against Messi’s ability to carry Argentina, while Ronaldo could not carry Portugal. 

Group H

Belgium were the last of the four perfect teams, and may have also been the least impressive. They were very strong defensively, having majority possession in all of their matches, while conceding just one goal on a penalty. They did score just four goals and struggled to break down any of their three opponents. They are very talented but inexperienced at this level, and they will need to play much better in the knockout round. Algeria were a nice surprise – they were timid in 2010 and played much more freely this time around. Sofiane Feghouli has been the star as Algeria scored six times versus zero in 2010. It’s unfortunate that they will have to play Germany, but Algeria can be very proud of their showing so far, and they looked like they have enjoyed the ride. From the first game, they looked like a much more confident team.

If you watched the Russia – South Korea game, you’d understand why both teams are out. Russia could not create any offense and goalie Igor Akinfeev, who had been linked to big clubs in Europe in the past, baffled the minds of fans. I have never seen him or any other goalie make so many errors in such a short series of matches. I don’t blame him alone for their exit but he is directly to blame for two of the three goals Russia conceded, which in essence cost them four points. Without Alan Dzagoev starting, Russia were barely a threat going forward and that’s what really did them in. South Korea have been in decline since their sketchy run to the semi-final in 2002, but this was much worse than expected. They were overmatched in each game and showed very little creativity. There aren’t many good points to take from this World Cup for the Koreans. 

My brief thoughts on the round of 16: 

Brazil : Chile – I have the hosts winning this tournament, and while Chile have played well thus far, this task should be too great for them. Brazil have yet to play a complete game thus far, but have plenty of firepower to score on a disciplined opponent. Brazil, 2-0. 

Colombia : Uruguay – Uruguay’s success seems to correlate to Luis Suarez’s performances, and his ban will really hurt his team. Colombia have been superb thus far and I don’t see them tripping up here. Colombia, 3-1. 

Netherlands : Mexico – This game should be very close. The Dutch are a better side but Mexico have played very well and will have a strong showing from their fans. Could be quite a bit of fireworks in this one. Netherlands, 2-1. 

Costa Rica : Greece – If this game has more than one goal in it, I would be surprised. In fact, I don’t expect any goals at all. Costa Rica has played counterattacking football while Greece pretty much packs the back. This game is very likely to end 0-0 and go to penalties. Those are always tough to call, but given a shootout I would take Greece. I do see Costa Rica as the likelier team to score in open play. 

France : Nigeria – France will have some issues dealing with Nigeria’s fast, physical forwards but they are so much stronger in the midfield and defense. Don’t expect France to go down this early. France, 2-0.

Germany : Algeria – Germany are the strongest European side and they should have little trouble with Algeria. I expect a slightly cagey first half but the Germans to eventually take over. Germany, 2-0. 

Argentina : Switzerland – Argentina are big favorites here but have yet to impress. I think the Swiss have a shot at upsetting anyone, but not here. Argentina need someone to step up other than Messi, but he has been unstoppable thus far. Argentina, 2-1. 

Belgium : USA – This is probably the tightest matchup of this round. Belgium was able to rest some players and has a deeper side than the USA, but the American midfield has been superb thus far despite Michael Bradley playing far below his standards. I’m just hoping they don’t run out of gas. USA, 1-0.

Why Brazil Will Win This Summer's World Cup

International soccer has undergone a major power shift over the last two decades. Whereas South American teams, primarily Brazil and Argentina, had dominated the trophy cases over the first fifty or so years of World Cup play, European teams have elevated themselves during the last four World Cups. Brazil or Argentina won the World Cup every other tournament from 1962-1994, with only West Germany keeping up with their levels of success. But France's 3-0 win over Brazil in the '98 Final has started a run where European teams have won three of the last four, while also occupying ten of the possible twelve top-3 places. A power shift has certainly taken place, and Spain, Germany, Italy, France and Holland all have high expectations for this year's version.

So why am I so convinced Brazil will win this summer's event? Here's three reasons:

1) History of Hosts' Success

There have been nineteen World Cups. Six hosts have become champions, one a runner-up (famously Brazil in 1950) and five have reached the semi-finals. France, Switzerland, Mexico (twice), Spain, the United States, and South Africa are the hosts who did not reach the semi-finals. Of those, only France and Spain have been major powers in the sport, and those World Cups were in 1938 and 1982, when neither was as strong as they are today. There has been a clear advantage to hosting the event, and while some people see the hosts as under more pressure for this tournament, I see it as a massive boost to their chances. If you watched the Confederations Cup Final between Brazil and Spain, you could hear the crowd for all ninety minutes and see how their energy boosted the home side.

2) Lack of European Success Outside of Europe

I would say that European sides have the highest pedigree after Brazil. Until 2010, a European team had never won a World Cup outside of Europe. Spain was the first team to accomplish that feat, defeating the Netherlands in the final. Brazil has won World Cups on South America, North America, Europe and Asia. They travel incredibly well and have always had one of the talented squads, while European teams have not been able to replicate their brilliance at home when they go abroad. In the Confederations Cup, the team that gave Brazil the most trouble was Uruguay, a South American team. They had little trouble against Spain or Italy, scoring seven goals in the two games.

3) Brazil is the Best Team in the World

In most sports, the rankings that are put out tell a close picture of how teams stack up against one another. I've ranted before about the FIFA rankings because they're utterly useless. Brazil didn't play in qualifiers because they were hosting the World Cup, so they were ranked around 10 for the last year or so. Complete joke. The goalie position is somewhat concerning, as Julio Cesar has not faced top level competition in the last year, but the squad in front of him is stacked. Marcelo and Thiago Silva will anchor the back while big midfielders like Fernandinho will provide support behind quick playmakers like Willian. Neymar, Hulk and Fred provide three different styles for defenses to deal with. The fact that players like Filipe Luis, Miranda, Lucas Moura and Robinho did not make this squad tells you of the talent level. It's unrivaled.

So who can beat Brazil? For me, there's two teams who have a shot.

Argentina -  Brazil's biggest rival has quite a bit of fire power themselves. In Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Argentina has the best attacking options in the tournament. They also will have Angel Di Maria on the wing - he was perhaps Real Madrid's best player in the Champions League Final. I have a lot of questions about their aging defense and goalie position, and I don't think their midfield can keep pace with Brazil's rampant, physical bunch. I give them the best chance to beat Brazil because you just never know what will happen when rivals face one another.

Uruguay - Yes, I don't like a team from Europe can knock off Brazil. Uruguay defeated Brazil in the 1950 World Cup Final to send the entire home crowd into a state of shock. You can bet many Brazilians remember that day, and would be devastated if they fell to their neighbors again. They were fantastic in 2010 and don't really have a weakness. They have a very balanced team and while they don't have as bunch depth in talent, they have elite players like Diego Godin and Luis Suarez (if he's healthy). And don't sleep on Cavani or Forlan either. I think their success will be somewhat tied to Suarez's health, but they gave Brazil all they could handle last year.

If Brazil loses, it is almost certainly going to be a self-capitulation. But stranger things have happened. My other random thoughts for this year's World Cup:

Spain and/or Germany will not make it through their group. Germany has an injury-depleted midfield (they have attacking midfielders but little depth in holding players) while Spain's aging midfield was poor down the stretch. Don't be shocked... Ivory Coast should win Group C. They're the epitome of "they'll do it next time" but with no Falcao for Colombia, they are the best team by some distance... England finishes in last in Group D. They match up poorly with Italy in their first game and then face Uruguay. Costa Rica is better than a lot of people think. England has questions all over the field... France could make a run to the semi finals. They have an easy group and face the second-weakest group in the round of 16. After 2010's debacle, the French are trying to erase bad memories... I like Belgium, but I don't see them going very far. They are young and didn't face very stiff competition in qualifying, other than from Croatia. If Eden Hazard takes over games like he did for Chelsea, they could be a not-so-secret sleeper, but they are more likely to hit a roadblock early.

Champions League Final Preview

It isn’t El Clasico, but it may be even better. Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will play a Madrid derby in Lisbon, and will give Spain its second European champion of the year (Sevilla won the Europa League). Both clubs won their semi-final matchups with a curious lack of drama, winning by a combined score of 7-1 in the second legs of the ties, which were played on the road. Really impressive play from both teams, as the last two European champions, Bayern Munich and Chelsea, were swiftly sent packing. 

La Liga’s race came right down to the wire, with all three top clubs stuttering multiple times, but it was Atletico who came out on top, with Diego Godin’s goal securing a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou. It's a deserved and long-awaited triumph for Atletico, whose defensive prowess reigned in a typically offensive league. I think Real counted themselves out of the league too early and focused squarely on 'La Decima.' Obviously, that is not a bad thing because they are in the final, but they really blew the title this year despite being given so many chances to come back into the race. We will see if their lack of attention in the league pays off with a victory in Lisbon.

When: May 24, 2:45 ET

Injuries & Suspensions: There are a number of notable players in this category. Xabi Alonso picked up a yellow card with Real leading 4-0 on aggregate in Munich, and now he will miss the final. It’s a shame that players must miss the final for yellow card accumulation, but there is no better way to implement the rule, and he really should have known better in that situation. He is perhaps Real’s most important player, and they will feel his absence. 

Diego Costa has a hamstring problem for which he underwent surgery for last Monday, while Cristiano Ronaldo has a groin issue, and he has not played since May 7. These are massive attacking players for each side, and while both have adequate alternatives, these two are irreplaceable. They are both making the trip to Lisbon, and Ronaldo seems to be the healthier of the two, but it remains to be seen. If Atletico are missing Costa, Diego Simeone will likely turn to David Villa, while Carlo Ancelotti would turn to Gareth Bale to fill in for Ronaldo. 

Real have other concerns at both the front and the back, as Karim Benzema and Pepe are questionable to play. If either are unable to play, it presents a big problem for Los Blancos. Without Benzema (and a hobbled Ronaldo) Real will not have a focal point to their attack. While Pepe may have an erratic history, he has been fantastic in the Champions League this year, and they will already be missing cover in midfield due to Xabi’s absence. While I hope the injured players are able to play, it would be interesting to see how Ancelotti would set up the side without either or both of those two players. Lastly, Arda Turan is also racing to be fit for the contest for Atletico. He was a constant threat against Chelsea and provides plenty of service to Costa. He is a major part of Atletico’s passing play in the final third, and after picking up an injury against Barca, it will be a close call. 

Prior Meetings: This season, the sides played four times – twice in La Liga and twice in the Copa Del Rey semi-finals. Atletico won 1-0 at the Bernabeu and the sides drew 2-2 at the Vicente Calderon in La Liga, while Real won 3-0 at home and 2-0 away in the Copa. The 2-0 loss for Atletico was played without the likes of Diego Costa, Diego Godin, Arda Turan and Adrian, but it was a convincing response from Real nonetheless following their string of poor results against the Rojiblancos. 

Verdict: There is as much uncertainty in this final as I can remember – there are injury questions piled on to the fact that it’s a Madrid derby, and derbies are nearly unpredictable. Real dominated Atletico under Jose Mourinho, but now Diego Simeone’s crew has been getting the better of their wealthier neighbors. The pressure is squarely on Real – this has been a long-awaited moment for their fan base, and a loss to Atletico would be very painful to swallow. It’s surely a match Atletico want to win, but having won La Liga, they have surpassed everyone’s expectations by a long, long way. 

It’s hard to even pick who the favorite should be. Atletico won the league, but Real have performed admirably against high-level competition, while tripping up on some of the lower hurdles. The match is close by in Portugal, so there’s no site advantage. Carlo Ancelotti has more experience at this level and has already won two Champions League crowns with AC Milan, but Diego Simeone has proved himself to be one of the best coaches is the game today with his team’s achievements this season. Real have superior attacking depth, but Atletico have a sturdier defense and one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Thibault Courtois. Real has a slightly better midfield, but they will not have Xabi, so I think that advantage swings to Atletico. The point is, there’s no distinguishing these two sides.

Weighing in all the factors, I think Atletico wins if Costa plays and Real is missing any of Ronaldo, Pepe, or Benzema. If Ancelotti has all of those players at his disposal, I think Los Blancos take La Decima. My reasoning – with Xabi already out of the lineup, if Real are missing a forward, or another important defender, Atletico will have a major advantage, as Ancelotti will be using someone he hasn't featured often. Atletico have won without Costa before, but I don’t see them doing it on this stage against a team that has been gearing for this game for the last month. I don’t believe in the “meant to be” type outlook on this match for Real – they have superior individual players and in what could be a very tight game, one moment of brilliance could make the difference. Between Ronaldo, Bale, Di Maria, Modric, etc. there are depths of brilliance. It looks like Ronaldo will play and don't be surprised to see him become the man of the moment. It should be a very tight match, and I will take Real to produce that one Zidane-esque moment to take La Decima.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid

Maybe add to these? 

UEFA Champions League: Semifinal Preview

Once again, Spain continues to place its stamp on European competition. Two Spanish clubs find their place in the semifinals of the Champions League, while Sevilla and Valencia face off in the Europa League. England, Germany, Italy and Portugal each have just one representative left in European competition. It’s difficult to determine which domestic league is the best, but by this criterion, La Liga is clearly supreme. I think it’s difficult to definitively say that it is, just because the league has been dominated so thoroughly by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade, and when you look at the overall depth of the league, it starts to run dry after third or fourth place most years. This year, it is nearly indisputable that La Liga has been the best – Atletico has been a positive surprise, and Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad are all solid teams. While the Premier League has been regarded recently as the best in the world because of the massive investment and increasing parity from top to bottom, the quality of Spanish football must be recognized. Great strides have been made in Spain this year, but will any Spanish sides come home with European silverware?  

Semifinal matchups:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

A true matchup of world football giants, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet for the second time in three years in the Champions League semifinals. Two years ago, it was Bayern who took a 2-1 lead in the first leg in Munich through a last-minute strike from Mario Gomez, but Real replied with two early goals at the Bernabeu, only for Bayern to equalize from the spot. It was the spot that decided the tie, as three of Real’s four penalty takers missed (including a horrific effort from Sergio Ramos) and Bayern won the shootout, 3-1. Overall it was a very even tie, and with many of the big names still playing a starting role in the sides, I expect another even tilt.

One thing that has changed is the coaching staffs at each club. That matchup in 2012 featured Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho at Real, with retired treble winner Jupp Heynckes at Bayern. Carlo Ancelotti leads Madrid now, while former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola has taken charge at Bayern. Both coaches have considerable experience at this level, as they, along with Mourinho, are vying to become the second coach in history to win three Champions League crowns. 

I think this tie favors Bayern Munich, but they will have a huge advantage if Ronaldo’s injury affects his play, or prevents him from playing altogether. It would be difficult to see him missing the match entirely, but players vary on their ability to play through injury. Ronaldo is the best player remaining in the competition, and if Real are to make the final, he will have to be the catalyst. Bayern’s defense has been anything but convincing, and while Guardiola has always been known for his attacking prowess rather than building an organized defense, they still have a sizeable advantage over Madrid. Mistake-prone players like Sergio Ramos and Pepe still play significant minutes at the heart of Real’s defense, and their showing in Dortmund will be met with similar punishment if they repeat that performance against the Bavarians. Speaking of Dortmund, they waxed a full-strength Bayern 3-0 in Munich last weekend. Neither side looks all that intimidating in the defensive third. 

I like Bayern in this matchup because I think they provide more ways to break you down. Madrid have a wealth of attacking players, and Gareth Bale has come into form during the second half of the season, but I don’t know how much they will trouble Bayern if Ronaldo is not playing at full strength. They are used to having a lion's share of the ball, and they won't against Bayern. Both sides conceded two goals in the last round – Bayern gave up a magnificent header to Nemanja Vidic off of a corner, and a rocket to Patrice Evra from open play, while Real produced an awful back header and a giveaway in midfield. My point is that Bayern are less mistake-prone at the back and have more solidity in their game plan than Real does. With more of the ball, and likely more of the chances, I see Bayern making their third straight finals appearance.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 3 Bayern Munich (2 – 1 H, 0 – 2 A)

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid has been nothing short of outstanding under Diego Simeone. He has already won the Europa League, UEFA Super Cup (against Chelsea) and Copa Del Rey since joining the club in December 2011. It’s also worth noting that despite their success, they’ve had several stars join other clubs (Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan, Falcao as a few examples) and they have been in financial trouble for years. Chelsea haven’t had any financial issues since Roman Abramovich bought the club, and despite Mourinho’s best efforts to lower expectations for the season, the club found itself in the thick of the Premier League title race for much of the year and now competing in the semi-finals of the European Cup.

The clubs have faced one another three times in the last five years; twice in the group stage of the 2009-10 UEFA Champions League, and in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco. Chelsea won 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, while the teams drew 2-2 in Madrid. The Super Cup was won decisively by Atletico, a 4-1 drubbing coming courtesy of a first-half Falcao hat-trick. With these sides, I would not put much stock into the past results – some of Chelsea’s longest-tenured players are still around but hardly any of Atletico’s are. Mourinho only lost to Atletico once in his three years at Real – it was his last game, the final of last year’s Copa Del Rey, with Atletico winning 2-1. All six La Liga games were won by Real, with the aggregate score 16:4. 

While Chelsea showed their typical character in grinding out the result against PSG, they have to play a lot better to get through this tie. Atletico suffocated Barcelona’s attacking front with surprising ease, and have conceded just once in each knockout round tie. With the opportunities Atletico has been creating all season, and the improving health of Diego Costa, I don’t see one goal being good enough for Chelsea to move on to the final. Samuel Eto'o will not play in Madrid, meaning it will be up to Fernando Torres or Demba Ba to lead the lines away from home.

This tie will likely be won at the Vicente Calderon. Atletico have conceded just nine goals in 17 home games in La Liga this season – a very similar record to PSG’s. The difference is La Liga is one of the top three leagues on the globe. It’s going to be very difficult for Chelsea to create chances with the way Atletico pressure them, and if Eden Hazard is forced to miss the first leg, Chelsea will be short of attacking options. Diego Godin and Miranda are going to be hot commodities this off season, and with Atletico normally looking to take profits on players, they could easily be moving on this summer. But this defensive unit, along with Chelsea loanee Thibault Courtois, has been one of the best in Europe in recent years.

Does Chelsea's loss against Sunderland have any effect on this tie? I'm not sure. In one sense, it allows them to focus squarely on European competition, but losing at home to the team at the bottom of the table can never be seen as a positive. I think they will be sluggish early in Madrid, but they have more than enough quality and experience to steady themselves. This is going to be another dead-even tie, but I give Chelsea the edge because I think they match up well with Atletico's attack and displayed a suffocating home advantage in the quarterfinals. I don't expect them to be in as deep of a hole this time around. Don't expect many goals either - both coaches will be happy to grind this one out.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.