As much as I love seeing the European draws, the Champions League knock-out round's draw is always a tease, as we won't see the ties for another two months. I won't make my official predictions until a few days before the ties, since we have a ton of time and a whole transfer window to go through, which could change the prospective of many of the teams. For now though, there are a few interesting points to look at:
LUCKY DRAW: Bayern Munich.
Despite their victory over Manchester United, FC Basel must be considered the biggest underdogs at this stage, and now face the daunting task of knocking off German giants Bayern. Bayern took care of the other big Swiss side, FC Zurich, 3-0 on aggregate in qualifying. As Bayern's directors have already stated, this is the tie they wanted, and they will be heavy favorites to come through. Basel have showed they can score against a big side, with five goals against Manchester United in their two games. However, few can expect the Swiss side to come through here. Barring any major injuries to the Bayern side, we can safely expect a relatively easy Bayern win. Hopefully it won't be as lopsided as their record 12-1 aggregate win over Sporting Lisbon a few years ago.
UNLUCKY ENGLISH: English sides get two worst draws.
I ranked Napoli and AC Milan as the toughest teams in the runners-up pot, and they were drawn against English sides Chelsea and Arsenal respectively. Chelsea will be challenged by Napoli's pace and skill up top, and Arsenal's sometimes faulty defense will be put to the test of Zlatan, Pato, Robinho and company. This one I really won't look much into, because I think Chelsea, Arsenal and AC Milan are all going to make some major moves in the transfer window. Both English sides will be slight favorites, but you could see either or both going out.
TRICKY SPANISH: Largely unknown opponents will provide challenge for Spanish giants.
Real Madrid face a trip to Russia to face CSKA and Barcelona face off against Bayer Leverkusen. Playing in Russia will be difficult for Real Madrid, as it is quite chilly in February. CSKA have some strong players and if they can play well in Russia, they can remember Rubin Kazan's win at the Nou Camp in 2009, the biggest victory for a Russian side in Spain. Bayer Leverkusen would have come in first in Group E if they could have defeated Genk on the final matchday, but the draw has sent them to play holders Barcelona. Bayer can present Barcelona with some challenge if they can handle the Catalan side's dearth of attacking talent. The loss of David Villa should not be too drastic, but it will affect their depth both domestically and in Europe. I would expect both Spanish sides to get through, but perhaps not quite as easy as it looks for one or both sides.
UPSET ALERT: Lyon.
Well, you probably saw that one coming. Other than FC Basel, this is the best draw for Cypriot minnows APOEL, as they avoid a perennial giant. Lyon is strong, but they are hardly a Bayern or Madrid, especially as they limped through the group stage. Six of their eight points came against hapless Dinamo Zagreb, they failed to score in two ties against Ajax (although they did not concede either) and were very overmatched against Real Madrid, losing 6-0 on aggregate. APOEL had not lost a game until the last day's game against Shakhtar (which was essentially meaningless) and have come up with three draws in their three road ties. That will be the gameplan against Lyon, to tie the first match in France, then hope to come home to their roaring crowd to knockout the French side. Lyon will be favorites but they are ripe for the picking, and APOEL has a great chance at having their European dream continue.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Calamity, Comeback, and Controversy
What a week in Europe. This final matchday was definitely one of the best I have ever seen. It had all of the elements - underdogs advancing, shock results from the big clubs, and some of the expected teams inching their way through. Let's start in Basel.
Manchester United's 2-1 loss to FC Basel was the most shocking result I have seen in the Champions League. Rubin Kazan's 2-1 win at the Nou Camp in 2009 was also a stunner, but was early in the group stage and had no effect on qualification. Coming into the game, I didn't think the Swiss side had a chance - if they played really well they could hold United to a draw, maybe threaten a few times, but still wind up in the Europa League. Completely wrong. Not only did Basel win the game, but they were the better side, which was completely unfathomable twenty-four hours ago. Xherdan Shaqiri was simply fantastic in the middle, and Alexander Frei played like the Frei prior to Euro 2008. Most importantly, they took their chances when they were given, while United was continually wasteful. Even on United's goal, Macheda managed to strike the crossbar from six yards out with the net at his mercy. Manchester United's season is looking more and more like Chelsea's season last year. There were dampened expectations, but they got off to a fantastic start to calm the worries. Now there is a reality check, and this team, especially defensively, is far from elite. The talent is still there, and (minus his moaning about the officials, which for the first time, I did not hear following a loss) Sir Alex is a fantastic manager, so there is no need to panic. But the club is out of the Champions League, face Manchester City at Eastlands in the FA Cup, and lost in the Carling Cup to Crystal Palace. Other than the FA Cup, that leaves the league, which will be very difficult with City, and the Europa League. United could be hard-pressed to find a trophy this season. The United fans may stop singing at the Arsenal fans because they'll feel just like them.
Marseille's win over Dortmund was nearly as stunning, after the German side took a 2-0 lead inside thirty-five minutes. However, with Olympiakos winning, the French side needed a win and stormed back to win 3-2. Mathieu Valbuena's wonder-goal won the game for Marseille just two minutes after they had leveled the score off of a corner. The French side deserved to go through after displaying such quality. I would love to see Marseille matched up against Inter in the draw. It would be two sides that are struggling terribly domestically but playing fantastic in Europe (which makes no sense whatsoever). It's stunning for Olympiakos, who had won three of their final four games after dropping the opening two. The Greeks beat a weakened Arsenal side 3-1 to give themselves the best chance, but fell a point short due to Valbuena's winner. The Greeks will have to settle for the Europa League.
The controversy was served up in Croatia, of all places. Lyon came into the final matchday trailing Ajax by three points and seven goals, heading to Zagreb to face Dinamo while Ajax hosted Real Madrid. These are the facts: Ajax had two goals wrongly ruled out for offside in a 3-0 loss to Madrid, while Lyon, tied 1-1 at half-time, scored six goals in the second half to win 7-1 and go through. I'm not into conspiracy theories (see: Chelsea-Barcelona, 2009 - not a conspiracy, simply horrendous officiating), but there are some bases for angry fans to fuel their claims. Especially after a Dinamo Zagreb player looks like he is winking at Gomis after Lyon's fifth goal. It is foolish to accuse without evidence, so as of now, Lyon and Dinamo Zagreb are in the clear, but I will be interested to see if any more facts arise. I honestly hope not, because UEFA has had so many issues over the past decade with the Eastern Europe scandal, as well as domestic scandals in Germany, Italy, Greece and Turkey. If not, this is as stunning a comeback for Lyon as it was for Marseille. The French teams really put on a show this week (other than Lille).
Again, I am truly shocked United crashed out. As for City, I could see it coming. Many of the players had little-to-no European experience and they were handed a very difficult group. Porto and Lille were huge disappointments as well - they both needed a win in their final game against arguably inferior opposition, and both could only muster 0-0 draws. The draw for the knockout round is next Friday. Here is how I'd rank the teams, in terms of strongest to weakest:
Pot 1 Pot 2
1) Barcelona 1) Napoli
2) Real Madrid 2) AC Milan
3) Bayern Munich 3) Marseille
4) Chelsea 4) Zenit
5) Arsenal 5) Bayer Leverkusen
6) Inter Milan 6) Lyon
7) Benfica 7) CSKA Moscow
8) APOEL Nicosia 8) FC Basel
Teams in Pot 1 cannot be matched up against 1) those in their federation or 2) the team that finished runners-up in their group. So Inter cannot play Napoli, AC Milan or CSKA, and likewise, Bayern cannot play Napoli or Bayer. I'd really want to avoid Napoli or Milan, as those two sides are much stronger and talented than any of the other teams in Pot 2. APOEL and FC Basel are true minnows now and are likely to be eliminated unless they face one another. The draw will determine the fate of some of the weaker teams, as a matchup with Barcelona or Real Madrid would be deadly.
Manchester United's 2-1 loss to FC Basel was the most shocking result I have seen in the Champions League. Rubin Kazan's 2-1 win at the Nou Camp in 2009 was also a stunner, but was early in the group stage and had no effect on qualification. Coming into the game, I didn't think the Swiss side had a chance - if they played really well they could hold United to a draw, maybe threaten a few times, but still wind up in the Europa League. Completely wrong. Not only did Basel win the game, but they were the better side, which was completely unfathomable twenty-four hours ago. Xherdan Shaqiri was simply fantastic in the middle, and Alexander Frei played like the Frei prior to Euro 2008. Most importantly, they took their chances when they were given, while United was continually wasteful. Even on United's goal, Macheda managed to strike the crossbar from six yards out with the net at his mercy. Manchester United's season is looking more and more like Chelsea's season last year. There were dampened expectations, but they got off to a fantastic start to calm the worries. Now there is a reality check, and this team, especially defensively, is far from elite. The talent is still there, and (minus his moaning about the officials, which for the first time, I did not hear following a loss) Sir Alex is a fantastic manager, so there is no need to panic. But the club is out of the Champions League, face Manchester City at Eastlands in the FA Cup, and lost in the Carling Cup to Crystal Palace. Other than the FA Cup, that leaves the league, which will be very difficult with City, and the Europa League. United could be hard-pressed to find a trophy this season. The United fans may stop singing at the Arsenal fans because they'll feel just like them.
Marseille's win over Dortmund was nearly as stunning, after the German side took a 2-0 lead inside thirty-five minutes. However, with Olympiakos winning, the French side needed a win and stormed back to win 3-2. Mathieu Valbuena's wonder-goal won the game for Marseille just two minutes after they had leveled the score off of a corner. The French side deserved to go through after displaying such quality. I would love to see Marseille matched up against Inter in the draw. It would be two sides that are struggling terribly domestically but playing fantastic in Europe (which makes no sense whatsoever). It's stunning for Olympiakos, who had won three of their final four games after dropping the opening two. The Greeks beat a weakened Arsenal side 3-1 to give themselves the best chance, but fell a point short due to Valbuena's winner. The Greeks will have to settle for the Europa League.
The controversy was served up in Croatia, of all places. Lyon came into the final matchday trailing Ajax by three points and seven goals, heading to Zagreb to face Dinamo while Ajax hosted Real Madrid. These are the facts: Ajax had two goals wrongly ruled out for offside in a 3-0 loss to Madrid, while Lyon, tied 1-1 at half-time, scored six goals in the second half to win 7-1 and go through. I'm not into conspiracy theories (see: Chelsea-Barcelona, 2009 - not a conspiracy, simply horrendous officiating), but there are some bases for angry fans to fuel their claims. Especially after a Dinamo Zagreb player looks like he is winking at Gomis after Lyon's fifth goal. It is foolish to accuse without evidence, so as of now, Lyon and Dinamo Zagreb are in the clear, but I will be interested to see if any more facts arise. I honestly hope not, because UEFA has had so many issues over the past decade with the Eastern Europe scandal, as well as domestic scandals in Germany, Italy, Greece and Turkey. If not, this is as stunning a comeback for Lyon as it was for Marseille. The French teams really put on a show this week (other than Lille).
Again, I am truly shocked United crashed out. As for City, I could see it coming. Many of the players had little-to-no European experience and they were handed a very difficult group. Porto and Lille were huge disappointments as well - they both needed a win in their final game against arguably inferior opposition, and both could only muster 0-0 draws. The draw for the knockout round is next Friday. Here is how I'd rank the teams, in terms of strongest to weakest:
Pot 1 Pot 2
1) Barcelona 1) Napoli
2) Real Madrid 2) AC Milan
3) Bayern Munich 3) Marseille
4) Chelsea 4) Zenit
5) Arsenal 5) Bayer Leverkusen
6) Inter Milan 6) Lyon
7) Benfica 7) CSKA Moscow
8) APOEL Nicosia 8) FC Basel
Teams in Pot 1 cannot be matched up against 1) those in their federation or 2) the team that finished runners-up in their group. So Inter cannot play Napoli, AC Milan or CSKA, and likewise, Bayern cannot play Napoli or Bayer. I'd really want to avoid Napoli or Milan, as those two sides are much stronger and talented than any of the other teams in Pot 2. APOEL and FC Basel are true minnows now and are likely to be eliminated unless they face one another. The draw will determine the fate of some of the weaker teams, as a matchup with Barcelona or Real Madrid would be deadly.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Champions League - Matchday 6: Qualification for Knockout Stages
This Tuesday and Wednesday comprise the final matchday of the group stage of this year's Champions League. Here is a breakdown of what to watch in each group:
GROUP A
Bayern are top of the group and have already won it following their win over Villarreal. Napoli sit a point ahead of Manchester City after their win last matchday in Naples. City are home to Bayern knowing they must win and hope Napoli draw or lose in Spain. A draw is not good enough, as Napoli have the edge head-to-head. City have looked like one of the top sides in Europe in the Premier League but have struggled in Group A, but I think they will win against a Bayern side with nothing to play for. However, Napoli face inferior opposition with even less motivation than the Germans, and should have no trouble taking care of business, even though they must travel.
Manchester City - Bayern Munich: HOME WIN
Villarreal - Napoli: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Bayern Munich, 2) Napoli. Europa League: Manchester City
GROUP B
Inter Milan have put their miserable domestic form to the side and have won Group B with a game to spare. Unfancied Trabzonspor lead Lille and CSKA by a point for second, put face a trip to France, while CSKA goes to Italy. Despite only losing a single game in the competition, it is difficult to see the Turks holding off Lille and going through. Even a draw might not be enough as CSKA face what will likely be a weakened Inter side. Look for Lille, who have improved steadily throughout the competition and sit third in Ligue 1, to defeat Trabzonspor and go through. CSKA could see a difficult time in Italy but they should be able to squeak through to continue a European adventure.
Lille - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
Inter Milan - CSKA Moscow - DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Inter Milan, 2) Lille. Europa League: CSKA Moscow
GROUP C
Benfica lead Group C on head-to-head over Manchester United with both clubs sitting on nine points, and have already qualified. FC Basel are close behind with eight, while Otelul have yet to gain a point in the competition. United travel to Switzerland, hoping for a better showing than their 3-3 result against Basel on Matchday 2, while Benfica host the Romanian side. Benfica should win easily, as although Otelul have not been blown away, they have shown no capability of pulling an upset. That would make the Portuguese side group winners and leave second to either United or Basel. Despite the 3-3 draw in England, United are huge favorites, knowing a draw will send them through. United never play for a draw though and will surely be attacking from the start. As comical as it would be to see United lose this game, you can't really reasonably predict it. United always seem to do enough to get through. It should be an interesting game nonetheless, especially if Basel are able to score the first goal.
Benfica - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Basel - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Benfica, 2) Manchester United. Europa League: FC Basel
GROUP D
Real Madrid have won Group D with five wins out of five. Ajax are second on eight points, Lyon third on five, and Dinamo Zagreb prop up the group with zero. Ajax and Lyon are even head-to-head, but Ajax is ahead of Lyon by seven goals on goal difference. Ajax must host Real Madrid, but if there is any good time to face the Spanish giants, it is this week. Real have nothing to play for and face Barcelona this weekend in La Liga. They have enormous squad depth, but surely Mourinho will not choose close to his strongest side. Ajax only need a point so Lyon have to hope Madrid can pull out a win, and they must absolutely hammer Dinamo in Zagreb. I think Lyon can put up four or five on the Croatians, but their result will not matter.
Ajax - Real Madrid: DRAW
Dinamo Zagreb - Lyon: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Real Madrid, 2) Ajax. Europa League: Lyon
GROUP E
Bayer Leverkusen lead group E after their last minute win over Chelsea, who are tied on eight points with Valencia. Genk have just their two draws in five games, while scoring just a single goal. Leverkusen travel to Belgium while Chelsea host Valencia. Bayer is through, and Chelsea can qualify with a 0-0 draw (if Bayer do not lose to Genk) or a win. Genk have been tough at home and Bayer have been woeful on the road, but the Germans should be able to avoid defeat. A win is certainly far more likely than a loss. Chelsea will be playing to win at home to make sure of qualification, but their home form has been terrible lately so you really don't know what to expect. An early goal from Valencia would send jolts through Stamford Bridge. Chelsea should be able to do enough to just barely squeak through here.
Chelsea - Valencia: HOME WIN
Racing Genk - Bayer Leverkusen: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Bayer Leverkusen, 2) Chelsea. Europa League: Valencia
GROUP F
Arsenal have won the group ahead of their trip to Greece, and Marseille are second, one point ahead of Olympiakos, and three ahead of Dortmund, where they head tomorrow. This group has a variety of scenarios that can see any of the three other teams qualifying. To have any hope, Dortmund must win by at least four goals, and hope Olympiakos lose to Arsenal, because a draw would mean they must win by five goals to go through. Olympiakos hope Marseille do not win, and a win or draw (if Marseille loses by two, three or four goals) would send them through. Marseille can go through with a draw if Olympiakos draws or loses, a win in Germany, or a loss by one goal and an Olympiakos loss or draw. Very confusing. I have no clue what's going to happen here. Dortmund clearly look the unlikeliest to qualify but it is not out of the question. Olympiakos have improved throughout the competition after losing their first two games and Arsenal will be far weaker than normal. These games should be fantastic.
Dortmund - Marseille: DRAW
Olympiakos - Arsenal: DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Arsenal, 2) Marseille. Europa League: Olympiakos
GROUP G
Surprise package (and personal favorite, other than Chelsea of course) APOEL have become the first Cypriot team to qualify for the knockout round of the Champions League after their 0-0 draw against Zenit. The Russians head to Portugal to face Porto needing a draw to go through, while the Portuguese must fight for a win. Shakhtar have been very disappointing, as they are completely out of the picture. APOEL look likeliest to win the group, as Porto are very tough at home and Zenit will probably play for a draw to get through. They would have to lose along with a Porto win to finish second. Despite their struggles I believe Porto gets through too. They are historically difficult to beat at home and needing a win here, they can attain the result. Hulk should lead the way for the reigning Portuguese and Europa League champions.
APOEL - Shakhtar Donetsk: DRAW
FC Porto - Zenit St. Petersburg: HOME WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) APOEL, 2) FC Porto. Europa League: Zenit St. Petersburg
GROUP H
Group H has the least amount of drama, as Barcelona have already won the group and AC Milan are second. Plzen host Milan while BATE travel to Spain, hoping to replicate Rubin Kazan's stunning upset at the Camp Nou two years ago. It is extremely unlikely. Barca will be preparing for Real Madrid this weekend but they still have a strong enough squad to defeat BATE. Plzen have a far greater chance of pulling an upset, as they are a more dangerous side. A draw would be enough to send them into the Europa League.
Barcelona - BATE Borisov: HOME WIN
Viktoria Plzen - AC Milan: DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Barcelona, 2) AC Milan. Europa League: Viktoria Plzen
If the groups came out this way, the knockout round would consist of the group winners(Bayern, Inter, Benfica, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal, APOEL, and Barcelona) in Pot 1, and the runner-ups (Napoli, Lille, Manchester United, Ajax, Chelsea, Marseille, Porto, and AC Milan) in Pot 2. There are the potential for some heavyweight ties in there, and Barcelona could face a stiff early test in Napoli, Manchester United or Chelsea. Groups A-D will be played on Wednesday while Groups E-H are Tuesday. Go Blues!
GROUP A
Bayern are top of the group and have already won it following their win over Villarreal. Napoli sit a point ahead of Manchester City after their win last matchday in Naples. City are home to Bayern knowing they must win and hope Napoli draw or lose in Spain. A draw is not good enough, as Napoli have the edge head-to-head. City have looked like one of the top sides in Europe in the Premier League but have struggled in Group A, but I think they will win against a Bayern side with nothing to play for. However, Napoli face inferior opposition with even less motivation than the Germans, and should have no trouble taking care of business, even though they must travel.
Manchester City - Bayern Munich: HOME WIN
Villarreal - Napoli: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Bayern Munich, 2) Napoli. Europa League: Manchester City
GROUP B
Inter Milan have put their miserable domestic form to the side and have won Group B with a game to spare. Unfancied Trabzonspor lead Lille and CSKA by a point for second, put face a trip to France, while CSKA goes to Italy. Despite only losing a single game in the competition, it is difficult to see the Turks holding off Lille and going through. Even a draw might not be enough as CSKA face what will likely be a weakened Inter side. Look for Lille, who have improved steadily throughout the competition and sit third in Ligue 1, to defeat Trabzonspor and go through. CSKA could see a difficult time in Italy but they should be able to squeak through to continue a European adventure.
Lille - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
Inter Milan - CSKA Moscow - DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Inter Milan, 2) Lille. Europa League: CSKA Moscow
GROUP C
Benfica lead Group C on head-to-head over Manchester United with both clubs sitting on nine points, and have already qualified. FC Basel are close behind with eight, while Otelul have yet to gain a point in the competition. United travel to Switzerland, hoping for a better showing than their 3-3 result against Basel on Matchday 2, while Benfica host the Romanian side. Benfica should win easily, as although Otelul have not been blown away, they have shown no capability of pulling an upset. That would make the Portuguese side group winners and leave second to either United or Basel. Despite the 3-3 draw in England, United are huge favorites, knowing a draw will send them through. United never play for a draw though and will surely be attacking from the start. As comical as it would be to see United lose this game, you can't really reasonably predict it. United always seem to do enough to get through. It should be an interesting game nonetheless, especially if Basel are able to score the first goal.
Benfica - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Basel - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Benfica, 2) Manchester United. Europa League: FC Basel
GROUP D
Real Madrid have won Group D with five wins out of five. Ajax are second on eight points, Lyon third on five, and Dinamo Zagreb prop up the group with zero. Ajax and Lyon are even head-to-head, but Ajax is ahead of Lyon by seven goals on goal difference. Ajax must host Real Madrid, but if there is any good time to face the Spanish giants, it is this week. Real have nothing to play for and face Barcelona this weekend in La Liga. They have enormous squad depth, but surely Mourinho will not choose close to his strongest side. Ajax only need a point so Lyon have to hope Madrid can pull out a win, and they must absolutely hammer Dinamo in Zagreb. I think Lyon can put up four or five on the Croatians, but their result will not matter.
Ajax - Real Madrid: DRAW
Dinamo Zagreb - Lyon: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Real Madrid, 2) Ajax. Europa League: Lyon
GROUP E
Bayer Leverkusen lead group E after their last minute win over Chelsea, who are tied on eight points with Valencia. Genk have just their two draws in five games, while scoring just a single goal. Leverkusen travel to Belgium while Chelsea host Valencia. Bayer is through, and Chelsea can qualify with a 0-0 draw (if Bayer do not lose to Genk) or a win. Genk have been tough at home and Bayer have been woeful on the road, but the Germans should be able to avoid defeat. A win is certainly far more likely than a loss. Chelsea will be playing to win at home to make sure of qualification, but their home form has been terrible lately so you really don't know what to expect. An early goal from Valencia would send jolts through Stamford Bridge. Chelsea should be able to do enough to just barely squeak through here.
Chelsea - Valencia: HOME WIN
Racing Genk - Bayer Leverkusen: AWAY WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) Bayer Leverkusen, 2) Chelsea. Europa League: Valencia
GROUP F
Arsenal have won the group ahead of their trip to Greece, and Marseille are second, one point ahead of Olympiakos, and three ahead of Dortmund, where they head tomorrow. This group has a variety of scenarios that can see any of the three other teams qualifying. To have any hope, Dortmund must win by at least four goals, and hope Olympiakos lose to Arsenal, because a draw would mean they must win by five goals to go through. Olympiakos hope Marseille do not win, and a win or draw (if Marseille loses by two, three or four goals) would send them through. Marseille can go through with a draw if Olympiakos draws or loses, a win in Germany, or a loss by one goal and an Olympiakos loss or draw. Very confusing. I have no clue what's going to happen here. Dortmund clearly look the unlikeliest to qualify but it is not out of the question. Olympiakos have improved throughout the competition after losing their first two games and Arsenal will be far weaker than normal. These games should be fantastic.
Dortmund - Marseille: DRAW
Olympiakos - Arsenal: DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Arsenal, 2) Marseille. Europa League: Olympiakos
GROUP G
Surprise package (and personal favorite, other than Chelsea of course) APOEL have become the first Cypriot team to qualify for the knockout round of the Champions League after their 0-0 draw against Zenit. The Russians head to Portugal to face Porto needing a draw to go through, while the Portuguese must fight for a win. Shakhtar have been very disappointing, as they are completely out of the picture. APOEL look likeliest to win the group, as Porto are very tough at home and Zenit will probably play for a draw to get through. They would have to lose along with a Porto win to finish second. Despite their struggles I believe Porto gets through too. They are historically difficult to beat at home and needing a win here, they can attain the result. Hulk should lead the way for the reigning Portuguese and Europa League champions.
APOEL - Shakhtar Donetsk: DRAW
FC Porto - Zenit St. Petersburg: HOME WIN
QUALIFIERS: 1) APOEL, 2) FC Porto. Europa League: Zenit St. Petersburg
GROUP H
Group H has the least amount of drama, as Barcelona have already won the group and AC Milan are second. Plzen host Milan while BATE travel to Spain, hoping to replicate Rubin Kazan's stunning upset at the Camp Nou two years ago. It is extremely unlikely. Barca will be preparing for Real Madrid this weekend but they still have a strong enough squad to defeat BATE. Plzen have a far greater chance of pulling an upset, as they are a more dangerous side. A draw would be enough to send them into the Europa League.
Barcelona - BATE Borisov: HOME WIN
Viktoria Plzen - AC Milan: DRAW
QUALIFIERS: 1) Barcelona, 2) AC Milan. Europa League: Viktoria Plzen
If the groups came out this way, the knockout round would consist of the group winners(Bayern, Inter, Benfica, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal, APOEL, and Barcelona) in Pot 1, and the runner-ups (Napoli, Lille, Manchester United, Ajax, Chelsea, Marseille, Porto, and AC Milan) in Pot 2. There are the potential for some heavyweight ties in there, and Barcelona could face a stiff early test in Napoli, Manchester United or Chelsea. Groups A-D will be played on Wednesday while Groups E-H are Tuesday. Go Blues!
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Champions League - Matchday 5 Preview
I will be moving about quite a bit the next few days, so instead of doing a post for each day of matches in the Champions League, I am forced to do one for the entire matchday. I'll make sure this post is twice as good as any of my single-day posts. Matchday 5 has a number of good matchups, and many teams have the opportunity to clinch their place in the knockout stage. Real Madrid and Barcelona are the only teams to have clinched a place in the next round, with Real doing it through four wins out of four, and a matchup with Dinamo Zagreb tomorrow should not harm their perfect record. There are some key games I would like to focus on over the next few days.
Wed. - AC Milan - Barcelona: I figured I'd start with the game with the least meaning, as Barcelona has already clinched its spot while Milan need just a point from their final two games to be sure. However, this high-powered matchup features two of the top contenders for the final in May. The reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw in Barcelona, with both sides playing at a very high level. Barcelona are definitely favorites, but Milan have enjoyed some success against the Spanish giants in the past. If Milan are able to hold Barcelona off early and not allow the Spaniards to play their possession game, we could have a very interesting contest. If Barcelona score early, the quality of the match could really suffer. I expect Milan to put together a good showing but another draw is probably in the cards.
Tues. - Napoli - Manchester City: Napoli trail Manchester City by two points in Group A and can take control of their campaign with a win over the Citizens. City have been in amazing form of late, with success domestically and now in Europe after a bit of a slow start. Napoli played a very strong game against City on Matchday 1, looking very threatening on the counter. They would have snatched all three points if not for a Kolarov free kick late in the second half. Napoli do need a win here though, so their despite their tactics being effective in Manchester, they may need to change the pace to go for a goal. City have simply been fantastic, and with the depth and experience in their squad, it is difficult not to consider the side contenders for every competition they are in. Napoli must not be overaggressive, as City have far too many attacking options to leave a side unpunished. Against the popular belief, I do think Napoli gets something out of this game - but a draw is more likely than a win. Even with all of the attacking players, Roberto Mancini has the ability to play a very defensive side in order to gain a draw, which is really all that City should need to go through,
Wed. - Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: Who would've thought this one could decide the winner of Group G? APOEL lead the group with eight points while Zenit are just a point behind after the first four matches. APOEL defeated Zenit 2-1 on the first day of matches, starting their great run of form in Europe which still has not met defeat. Since that match, Zenit have won two and drawn one in their other three matches, defeating Porto and Shakhtar at home while drawing the Ukrainians away. Despite how well they are playing, APOEL will be the underdog in every game they play this year because of the country they are from. This is a difficult match as well - Zenit will be looking to avenge the earlier defeat, plus a win would send the Russians top of the group and leaving them able to qualify with as little as a narrow loss in their final game. However, I cannot pick against the Cypriots after they have played so well in the competition. If they could gain a draw in Porto, why not here? If they are able to score against Zenit they should be able to gain at least a draw.
Wed. - Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund's campaign has sprung to life after a 3-1 win over Olympiakos, leaving the Germans three points behind Marseille and four behind leaders Arsenal. Arsenal are back on form, looking strong domestically and in Europe over the past month, putting away any fears of a crisis at the club. Dortmund will play to win here, which should open up the match and create an interesting, free-flowing game. Dortmund are full of confidence following a win in Munich over Bayern on Sunday, and will look to push forward early and gain a stranglehold on the game. Arsenal do not need much more than a point from this game, but Arsenal never play defensively and will look to hit Dortmund on the break if they push too many men forward. It will be a clash of style and one that could end in stalemate if Dortmund do not allow themselves to be torn apart by Robin Van Persie.
Well, in the four games I just featured, I realized I predicted four draws. Let's hope they are interesting draws and not 0-0 every game like Serie A. There are some games with heavy favorites but quite a few that could go either way. Here are my full picks for Matchday 5:
CSKA Moscow - Lille: DRAW
Bayern Munich - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Lyon - Ajax Amsterdam: HOME WIN
Manchester United - Benfica: HOME WIN
Napoli - Manchester City: DRAW
Otelul - FC Basel: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - Inter Milan: DRAW
Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: DRAW
BATE Borisov - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN
AC Milan - Barcelona: DRAW
Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: DRAW
Bayer Leverkusen - Chelsea: DRAW
Marseille - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Shakhtar Donetsk - FC Porto: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
Wed. - AC Milan - Barcelona: I figured I'd start with the game with the least meaning, as Barcelona has already clinched its spot while Milan need just a point from their final two games to be sure. However, this high-powered matchup features two of the top contenders for the final in May. The reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw in Barcelona, with both sides playing at a very high level. Barcelona are definitely favorites, but Milan have enjoyed some success against the Spanish giants in the past. If Milan are able to hold Barcelona off early and not allow the Spaniards to play their possession game, we could have a very interesting contest. If Barcelona score early, the quality of the match could really suffer. I expect Milan to put together a good showing but another draw is probably in the cards.
Tues. - Napoli - Manchester City: Napoli trail Manchester City by two points in Group A and can take control of their campaign with a win over the Citizens. City have been in amazing form of late, with success domestically and now in Europe after a bit of a slow start. Napoli played a very strong game against City on Matchday 1, looking very threatening on the counter. They would have snatched all three points if not for a Kolarov free kick late in the second half. Napoli do need a win here though, so their despite their tactics being effective in Manchester, they may need to change the pace to go for a goal. City have simply been fantastic, and with the depth and experience in their squad, it is difficult not to consider the side contenders for every competition they are in. Napoli must not be overaggressive, as City have far too many attacking options to leave a side unpunished. Against the popular belief, I do think Napoli gets something out of this game - but a draw is more likely than a win. Even with all of the attacking players, Roberto Mancini has the ability to play a very defensive side in order to gain a draw, which is really all that City should need to go through,
Wed. - Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: Who would've thought this one could decide the winner of Group G? APOEL lead the group with eight points while Zenit are just a point behind after the first four matches. APOEL defeated Zenit 2-1 on the first day of matches, starting their great run of form in Europe which still has not met defeat. Since that match, Zenit have won two and drawn one in their other three matches, defeating Porto and Shakhtar at home while drawing the Ukrainians away. Despite how well they are playing, APOEL will be the underdog in every game they play this year because of the country they are from. This is a difficult match as well - Zenit will be looking to avenge the earlier defeat, plus a win would send the Russians top of the group and leaving them able to qualify with as little as a narrow loss in their final game. However, I cannot pick against the Cypriots after they have played so well in the competition. If they could gain a draw in Porto, why not here? If they are able to score against Zenit they should be able to gain at least a draw.
Wed. - Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund's campaign has sprung to life after a 3-1 win over Olympiakos, leaving the Germans three points behind Marseille and four behind leaders Arsenal. Arsenal are back on form, looking strong domestically and in Europe over the past month, putting away any fears of a crisis at the club. Dortmund will play to win here, which should open up the match and create an interesting, free-flowing game. Dortmund are full of confidence following a win in Munich over Bayern on Sunday, and will look to push forward early and gain a stranglehold on the game. Arsenal do not need much more than a point from this game, but Arsenal never play defensively and will look to hit Dortmund on the break if they push too many men forward. It will be a clash of style and one that could end in stalemate if Dortmund do not allow themselves to be torn apart by Robin Van Persie.
Well, in the four games I just featured, I realized I predicted four draws. Let's hope they are interesting draws and not 0-0 every game like Serie A. There are some games with heavy favorites but quite a few that could go either way. Here are my full picks for Matchday 5:
CSKA Moscow - Lille: DRAW
Bayern Munich - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Lyon - Ajax Amsterdam: HOME WIN
Manchester United - Benfica: HOME WIN
Napoli - Manchester City: DRAW
Otelul - FC Basel: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - Inter Milan: DRAW
Zenit St. Petersburg - APOEL: DRAW
BATE Borisov - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN
AC Milan - Barcelona: DRAW
Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund: DRAW
Bayer Leverkusen - Chelsea: DRAW
Marseille - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Shakhtar Donetsk - FC Porto: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
Monday, November 21, 2011
Chelsea has the Blues
This weekend marked Chelsea's third loss in four Premier League games, which has caused a general panic throughout west London. As a fan, this loss was particularly disheartening because the opposition was not that strong. A loss at Old Trafford is forgivable, and a loss away to QPR while playing with nine men could also be written off. Even the recent loss to Arsenal had positives in it, despite the awful defending. But this loss against a Liverpool team that isn't very good, and did not play particularly well, raises some questions about the Chelsea team going forward. The movement in the first half was just slow. There was no pace in the buildup whatsoever, and regardless of who you are playing in the Premier League, you are not going to score with that type of pace. The two goals conceded were both sloppy, and isolated from any real Liverpool pressure. The game was generally absent of any type of sustained pressure, although Chelsea did have times where they held Liverpool back. But Liverpool's first goal came on general sloppy play at the back, with most of the blame falling on John Obi Mikel, who did not look like a Premier League player once during his forty-five minutes on the pitch. The second goal was created from a pretty piece of play from Charlie Adam, but Ashley Cole is badly beaten by a right-back while the rest of team watched. I don't understand the lethargic play - Chelsea have not been overrun by fixtures at this point in the season so they should still be fresh. Is it the age issue many commentators continue to mention? Who knows, but the squad still need to regroup quite a bit after these last two defeats. For Liverpool, this is a step in the right direction, as they were able to grind out the win. The Reds did do something they have often failed to do - take their chances when they arose. Kuyt was guilty of scuffing a shot well wide in the second half, but other than that, Liverpool had two chances and took them both. There still is much to be desired, because the midfield play is still below par. But to win on a day in which Luis Suarez was completely ineffective is a strong sign for Liverpool moving forward.
That result leaves Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal all level on points, but Spurs do have two games in hand. The third and fourth Champions League spots are wide open, as the Manchester clubs have taken a hold of the first two spots. Newcastle finally dropped their first game of the season, falling 3-1 to Manchester City. This is not a bad setback for Newcastle, but it could be the start of a plummet down the table. The most impressive team of the weekend looked like QPR, who claimed a 3-2 win at the Britannia against Stoke. In a very difficult environment to score, never mind win, QPR came through with a very positive approach and took all three points. Since playing very poorly in their 1-0 win over Chelsea, QPR have been impressive in a 3-2 loss to Manchester City and this win over Stoke. The R's still have a good shot at a top of the table finish as they continue to improve.
Tottenham and Aston Villa kicking off in fifteen minutes - should be a good game, and one I would expect Tottenham to win to leap above their rivals on 22 points. Villa have some good players but have lacked any finishing touch in the final third. Spurs could be a bit beleaguered from the international break, but they should come through this game on top.
That result leaves Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal all level on points, but Spurs do have two games in hand. The third and fourth Champions League spots are wide open, as the Manchester clubs have taken a hold of the first two spots. Newcastle finally dropped their first game of the season, falling 3-1 to Manchester City. This is not a bad setback for Newcastle, but it could be the start of a plummet down the table. The most impressive team of the weekend looked like QPR, who claimed a 3-2 win at the Britannia against Stoke. In a very difficult environment to score, never mind win, QPR came through with a very positive approach and took all three points. Since playing very poorly in their 1-0 win over Chelsea, QPR have been impressive in a 3-2 loss to Manchester City and this win over Stoke. The R's still have a good shot at a top of the table finish as they continue to improve.
Tottenham and Aston Villa kicking off in fifteen minutes - should be a good game, and one I would expect Tottenham to win to leap above their rivals on 22 points. Villa have some good players but have lacked any finishing touch in the final third. Spurs could be a bit beleaguered from the international break, but they should come through this game on top.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Euro 2012 Preview
Today's games went as expected - Croatia and Ireland cruised to victory after their hefty first-leg wins, the Czechs also came through without much trouble after a 1-0 win, and Portugal took care of business in a close game which blew open into a 6-2 victory. Now that the sixteen teams are set for the tournament in Ukraine and Poland next summer, I'll give a short overview of each team in the tournament.
FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain
The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.
POWERS: England, France, Italy
Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.
PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden
Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.
MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine
It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.
This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.
SLEEPER: Denmark.
Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.
BUST: England.
As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.
All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.
FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain
The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.
POWERS: England, France, Italy
Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.
PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden
Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.
MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine
It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.
This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.
SLEEPER: Denmark.
Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.
BUST: England.
As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.
All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Second Legs
For the most part, Friday's games played out as expected. Bosnia and Portugal were defensive in a 0-0 draw, but both Postiga and Ibisevic missed golden opportunities for their respective sides. The Czechs took down Montenegro 2-0 in a very narrow game, but the key was the second goal for the Czechs, which came in extra time. I mentioned how solid both of these sides are defensively, and the two-goal deficit makes for a difficult task for Montenegro. An away goal by the Czechs would end the tie, and while I don't want to give up on the underdogs, they would need a historic effort to go through. Ireland is in fantastic shape after a 4-0 win in Estonia. The Irish got the early goal they needed and let the Estonians self-destruct - they ended the game with just nine men. The game at the Aviva is merely a formality, and some of the unfancied players in Ireland's team may feature. Croatia's 3-0 win in Turkey came as somewhat of a surprise, but only for the margin. Croatia have been in far better form and were tested better in the group stage than the Turks, and their quality showed. It was almost too easy for the Croats, and a for a side managed by Guus Hiddink, Turkey must be very disappointed.
WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.
That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.
WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.
That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Preview
This international break is crucial for eight countries - Portugal, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Montenegro and Estonia will fight for the last four spots in Euro 2012, with the first leg at the unseeded opponent on Friday, followed by the second leg at the seeded opponent on Tuesday. At this stage, the favorites typically go through, but there are a number of surprise packages in this tournament's qualifying, so the ties should be very interesting. Slovenia's defeat of Russia to qualify for the 2010 World Cup gives all the underdogs at this stage hope to get through.
Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.
PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals
Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.
PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate
Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate
Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.
PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.
Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.
Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.
PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals
Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.
PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate
Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate
Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.
PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.
Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
A Historic Day in Cyprus
It was a historic day in Nicosia yesterday as Cypriot champions APOEL took down Porto 2-1 on a 90th minute winner by Gustavo Manduca. Porto had a majority of the chances and an edge in possession, but unlike 2009, APOEL did not look overmatched. Now sitting atop Group G with two wins and two draws from four games, APOEL is on the edge of being the first team from the small island country to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League. This win was not only impressive because of the quality of opponent, but for the style of play. The winner was a fabulous move, with passing through the midfield, a world-class ball from Charalambides, and a cool left-footed finish by Manduca. I love the underdogs in the group stages of the Champions League, and I've kept a close eye on Cypriot teams in the past - Anorthosis and APOEL both showed well in their prior appearances. However, these types of results are completely unprecedented. If APOEL can avoid defeat in their final two games, or win one of the two fixures (away to Zenit and home to Shakhtar) they will be through. While APOEL would likely be overmatched against the elite sides in Europe, they are a great story and have been very entertaining to watch this year.
Other than the thriller in Cyprus, yesterday's games were disappointing, lacking goals and excitement alike. Milan and Chelsea both stuttered against inferior opposition on the road, while Barcelona and Valencia both took care of business. There are quite a few ties which are difficult to project - Manchester City head to Villarreal on a tear of form, but that form has not translated to Champions League success so far. If Napoli can avoid defeat in Munich today they will be in great shape to reach the knockout round, but Bayern look very strong now. That looks like the game of the day. Another important game is in Group B between Trabzonspor and CSKA in Turkey. CSKA won the last game 3-0 but the game was closer than the score, and the Turks are strong at home. Here are my projections for today:
Ajax - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Bayern Munich - Napoli: HOME WIN
Benfica - Basel: HOME WIN
Inter - Lille: DRAW
Lyon - Real Madrid: DRAW
Manchester United - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Villarreal - Manchester City: AWAY WIN
Other than the thriller in Cyprus, yesterday's games were disappointing, lacking goals and excitement alike. Milan and Chelsea both stuttered against inferior opposition on the road, while Barcelona and Valencia both took care of business. There are quite a few ties which are difficult to project - Manchester City head to Villarreal on a tear of form, but that form has not translated to Champions League success so far. If Napoli can avoid defeat in Munich today they will be in great shape to reach the knockout round, but Bayern look very strong now. That looks like the game of the day. Another important game is in Group B between Trabzonspor and CSKA in Turkey. CSKA won the last game 3-0 but the game was closer than the score, and the Turks are strong at home. Here are my projections for today:
Ajax - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Bayern Munich - Napoli: HOME WIN
Benfica - Basel: HOME WIN
Inter - Lille: DRAW
Lyon - Real Madrid: DRAW
Manchester United - Otelul Galati: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Villarreal - Manchester City: AWAY WIN
Monday, October 31, 2011
Matchday 10 in the EPL + Matchday 4 in the Champions League
This is the week I finally start believing in Newcastle. For all of the criticism their management has taken, Newcastle has simply been stunning - undefeated through ten games and sitting third in the Premier League, sitting ahead of big-spending squads Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool. The keys to Newcastle's success are midfielder Yohann Cabaye and striker Demba Ba. Both have proved bargains, which Newcastle's management has always hunted for, with Ba looking world-class at times. It's not reasonable to think Newcastle will continue this sort of form - they have not played City, United or Chelsea yet. However, I think this team can be a force this year, provided they stay healthy. After the international break in November, Newcastle head to City and United, then face Chelsea at home. We will know much more about the Magpies' credentials after those games.
This weekend's disappointing performance went to Chelsea, as they were beaten 5-3 by Arsenal at home. I have not seen such a sloppy game between the two teams since I started watching the two play each other. High-scoring games are not always sloppy - Chelsea had a 4-4 draw with Liverpool two years ago, and the game was one of the most entertaining and well-played games I've seen. This game was full of defensive mistakes (Mertesacker, Terry), poor goalkeeper play, and a general lack of defensive responsibility. It's a huge win for Arsenal, as they finally seem to have put their early-season form completely behind them. It really shows how far the Gunners have come, even though I feel Chelsea played as horribly as they have all season.
This week brings back the Champions League, with a few enticing ties tomorrow. Valencia host Bayer Leverkusen in a game that will help determine who will finish second in Group E. Bayer leads by four points after their 2-1 win over Los Che last matchday. Valencia are very strong at home and should win this game to keep their hopes alive. Group G leaders APOEL host Porto in Nicosia following their 1-1 draw in Portugal last week. Can APOEL do it again? I feel like I can't doubt them anymore, and there will be a huge crowd ready to welcome them. A draw or win would put the minnows in great shape to go through. Dortmund faces a must-win game home to Olympiakos after losing 3-1 in Greece. Dortmund has improved of late - I think they have a great chance to win here to jump-start their campaign. All of the other games seem pretty straight-forward, put as always is with the Champions League, we will see. Here are my picks for tomorrow:
BATE Borisov - AC Milan: AWAY WIN
Zenit - Shakhtar: HOME WIN
APOEL - FC Porto: DRAW
Arsenal - Marseille: HOME WIN
Dortmund - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Genk - Chelsea: AWAY WIN
Plzen - Barcelona: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Bayer Leverkusen: HOME WIN
This weekend's disappointing performance went to Chelsea, as they were beaten 5-3 by Arsenal at home. I have not seen such a sloppy game between the two teams since I started watching the two play each other. High-scoring games are not always sloppy - Chelsea had a 4-4 draw with Liverpool two years ago, and the game was one of the most entertaining and well-played games I've seen. This game was full of defensive mistakes (Mertesacker, Terry), poor goalkeeper play, and a general lack of defensive responsibility. It's a huge win for Arsenal, as they finally seem to have put their early-season form completely behind them. It really shows how far the Gunners have come, even though I feel Chelsea played as horribly as they have all season.
This week brings back the Champions League, with a few enticing ties tomorrow. Valencia host Bayer Leverkusen in a game that will help determine who will finish second in Group E. Bayer leads by four points after their 2-1 win over Los Che last matchday. Valencia are very strong at home and should win this game to keep their hopes alive. Group G leaders APOEL host Porto in Nicosia following their 1-1 draw in Portugal last week. Can APOEL do it again? I feel like I can't doubt them anymore, and there will be a huge crowd ready to welcome them. A draw or win would put the minnows in great shape to go through. Dortmund faces a must-win game home to Olympiakos after losing 3-1 in Greece. Dortmund has improved of late - I think they have a great chance to win here to jump-start their campaign. All of the other games seem pretty straight-forward, put as always is with the Champions League, we will see. Here are my picks for tomorrow:
BATE Borisov - AC Milan: AWAY WIN
Zenit - Shakhtar: HOME WIN
APOEL - FC Porto: DRAW
Arsenal - Marseille: HOME WIN
Dortmund - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Genk - Chelsea: AWAY WIN
Plzen - Barcelona: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Bayer Leverkusen: HOME WIN
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Making Sense of the Manchester Derby
As I woke up at 8:25 on Sunday morning, I wondered whether sacrificing an extra two hours of sleep would be worth the two hours of football I was about to watch. I figured it was too important of a game to miss, but derbies can disappoint with conservative play and poor finishing. After twenty minutes of stalemate, City brought the game to life, and dominated the defending champions for the remaining 70+ minutes. It was shocking more than anything; many, including myself, thought City would at least be able to snatch a point at Old Trafford, but such a resounding win was completely out of the [sky] blue. United had been fortunate all season not to concede more, and they were finally punished by City's five second half goals.
Selection played a huge role in this game. Mancini picked an attacking side, favoring Balotelli to Dzeko, and Milner to Nasri. Balotelli was fantastic, creating space for himself and scoring the first two goals of the game. Milner was a creator in midfield, while dominating United's Fletcher and Anderson throughout the game. Fergie opted for Welbeck over Hernandez in attack and Evans over Jones in central defense. Welbeck was a non-factor, barely seeing the ball and unable to create any chances. A friend of mine (United fan) had hoped Sir Alex would not choose Evans, and his selection turned out to be United's downfall, as he was ineffective in the first half before getting sent off two minutes into the second. SAF was likely choosing experience in this sort of game, but Evans has consistently made errors and cost United goals. His sending off made any chance for a United comeback virtually impossible.
At the end of the day, it's one game, and had City won 1-0, the points would look the same as they do today. However, City must be thrilled about their win, moving five points clear of their rivals while embarrassing their rivals. If anyone doubted City's chances of challenging for the title, all those must be dashed. For United, their luck ran out and the defense was finally exposed for what it is - below average. Their attacking options are among the best in the Premier League, but their defense and midfield must improve if they are to keep up with City. The biggest concern is how United seemed to give up. Conceding three goals beyond 88 minutes shows that they simply stop trying at the end, allowing City to run up the total on them. SAF will surely demand effort for the entire 90 minutes, regardless of the score.
As for the other games in the Premier League, I don't even want to get into the Chelsea game - it was the second-worst refereeing performance I have ever witnessed (after Barcelona). They played extremely well with nine men, which is crazy in the Premier League. QPR has a lot of issues. Arsenal seems to be starting to put it all together while Tottenham continues to surge. I still see Spurs as favorites for fourth. Liverpool again did not convert their chances and continue to lose ground on their rivals. Newcastle are still unbeaten, somehow. If they can keep this up for a few more weeks they will be the shock of the season. Lastly, I'm extremely impressed with Norwich. They give everyone a tough time, win lose or draw. I think they have the spirit, while maybe lacking the talent, to stay up this season.
Selection played a huge role in this game. Mancini picked an attacking side, favoring Balotelli to Dzeko, and Milner to Nasri. Balotelli was fantastic, creating space for himself and scoring the first two goals of the game. Milner was a creator in midfield, while dominating United's Fletcher and Anderson throughout the game. Fergie opted for Welbeck over Hernandez in attack and Evans over Jones in central defense. Welbeck was a non-factor, barely seeing the ball and unable to create any chances. A friend of mine (United fan) had hoped Sir Alex would not choose Evans, and his selection turned out to be United's downfall, as he was ineffective in the first half before getting sent off two minutes into the second. SAF was likely choosing experience in this sort of game, but Evans has consistently made errors and cost United goals. His sending off made any chance for a United comeback virtually impossible.
At the end of the day, it's one game, and had City won 1-0, the points would look the same as they do today. However, City must be thrilled about their win, moving five points clear of their rivals while embarrassing their rivals. If anyone doubted City's chances of challenging for the title, all those must be dashed. For United, their luck ran out and the defense was finally exposed for what it is - below average. Their attacking options are among the best in the Premier League, but their defense and midfield must improve if they are to keep up with City. The biggest concern is how United seemed to give up. Conceding three goals beyond 88 minutes shows that they simply stop trying at the end, allowing City to run up the total on them. SAF will surely demand effort for the entire 90 minutes, regardless of the score.
As for the other games in the Premier League, I don't even want to get into the Chelsea game - it was the second-worst refereeing performance I have ever witnessed (after Barcelona). They played extremely well with nine men, which is crazy in the Premier League. QPR has a lot of issues. Arsenal seems to be starting to put it all together while Tottenham continues to surge. I still see Spurs as favorites for fourth. Liverpool again did not convert their chances and continue to lose ground on their rivals. Newcastle are still unbeaten, somehow. If they can keep this up for a few more weeks they will be the shock of the season. Lastly, I'm extremely impressed with Norwich. They give everyone a tough time, win lose or draw. I think they have the spirit, while maybe lacking the talent, to stay up this season.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Champions League - Matchday 3 - Day 2
Yesterday's games were typically as close as anticipated. City scraped their way through a 2-1 win over Villarreal for their first ever Champions League win. CSKA's win over Trabzonspor throws Group B back into the balance, with Inter somehow putting their domestic form aside to top the group. The best game from yesterday was between Napoli and Bayern, where chances were few and Bayern's defense was finally breached, albeit through an own goal. If Napoli can gain another draw in Germany, or City fail to win in Spain, they would still be in great shape to go through, as City must visit Naples on Matchday 5.
Today's games look much less clear-cut than yesterday. Milan, Barcelona, and Chelsea should all be comfortable winners at home, but the other five games look as if they could go either way. Group F gets the spotlight today, with Marseille hosting Arsenal and Dortmund traveling to Greece to take on Olympiakos. Marseille, like Inter, is struggling mightily domestically, winning just one of their opening ten games. However, Arsenal has not looked right this season either, so the game will feature lots of talent trying to form itself into respective teams. Meanwhile, Dortmund travels to Greece needing a win after their 3-0 loss to Marseille, while Olympiakos have failed to gain a point in their first to games, despite being in both games to the end. Both teams need a win here to kickstart the campaign, but I don't think either will get it. Two draws look on the cards here, and despite the talent in the group, there most likely won't be too much scoring today.
My upset pick yesterday was a miserable failure as Basel lost to Benfica, and as much as I would like to see the Cypriots APOEL keep up their great run of form, I think Porto will take them down today. It should be a good game though, with the Portuguese in control and APOEL trying to hit them on the counter, much like APOEL's game against Shakhtar. Here's my picks for today:
AC Milan - BATE Borisov: HOME WIN
Barcelona - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN (no Rubin Kazan repeat)
Bayer Leverkusen - Valencia: HOME WIN
Chelsea - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
FC Porto - APOEL: HOME WIN
Marseille - Arsenal: DRAW
Olympiakos - Dortmund: DRAW
Shakhtar Donetsk - Zenit St. Petersburg: HOME WIN
Today's games look much less clear-cut than yesterday. Milan, Barcelona, and Chelsea should all be comfortable winners at home, but the other five games look as if they could go either way. Group F gets the spotlight today, with Marseille hosting Arsenal and Dortmund traveling to Greece to take on Olympiakos. Marseille, like Inter, is struggling mightily domestically, winning just one of their opening ten games. However, Arsenal has not looked right this season either, so the game will feature lots of talent trying to form itself into respective teams. Meanwhile, Dortmund travels to Greece needing a win after their 3-0 loss to Marseille, while Olympiakos have failed to gain a point in their first to games, despite being in both games to the end. Both teams need a win here to kickstart the campaign, but I don't think either will get it. Two draws look on the cards here, and despite the talent in the group, there most likely won't be too much scoring today.
My upset pick yesterday was a miserable failure as Basel lost to Benfica, and as much as I would like to see the Cypriots APOEL keep up their great run of form, I think Porto will take them down today. It should be a good game though, with the Portuguese in control and APOEL trying to hit them on the counter, much like APOEL's game against Shakhtar. Here's my picks for today:
AC Milan - BATE Borisov: HOME WIN
Barcelona - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN (no Rubin Kazan repeat)
Bayer Leverkusen - Valencia: HOME WIN
Chelsea - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
FC Porto - APOEL: HOME WIN
Marseille - Arsenal: DRAW
Olympiakos - Dortmund: DRAW
Shakhtar Donetsk - Zenit St. Petersburg: HOME WIN
Monday, October 17, 2011
Champions League - Matchday 3
The Champions League continues this week, with the home-and-home games during Matchdays three and four. During these two weeks, teams always play the same opponent, with one game home and one game away. These games are often crucial in determining the final group standings. There are a number of mismatches in tomorrow's games but also some very interesting fixtures.
The early game features a Group B encounter between last-place CSKA Moscow and surprising first place Trabzonspor. This is a game CSKA desperately needs - they only have one point from their first two games and dropped their last game to struggling Inter at home. Trabzonspor has impressed, snatching a win in Milan while playing well in a draw against Ligue 1 high-fliers Lille. Trabzonspor have kept up their good form domestically and will certainly not be overmatched in Russia, but Russian teams are usually strong at home and CSKA will know that they need this game. I think the Russians will take a tight win going into the next fixture in Turkey.
I feel like I must write about Group A because of the dearth of talent between the four teams. Napoli takes on Bayern while City is home to Villarreal. I think City will take care of Villarreal without too much trouble, and while Bayern looks like the best team in the group, Napoli are very strong at home and have loads of attacking power. Bayern's backline has been shaky in the past, but they have not conceded a goal in eight straight domestic games - quite an impressive run of form. Having Manuel Neuer in goal certainly helped solidify the defense. Napoli has the talent to win here, but a 0-0 or 1-1 draw looks like the likely result.
Basel hosts Benfica tomorrow to begin the home-and-home, which is huge for both teams. Basel got a dream result in Manchester with the 3-3 draw, while the Portuguese are also off to a good start with four points from the first two games. This game is my upset pick - I think Basel wins this game to go three clear of Benfica before the teams head to Lisbon. Basel is in very impressive form and Benfica are not as strong away in Europe as they are at home. Here are all of my selections for tomorrow's games:
CSKA Moscow - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
FC Basel - Benfica: HOME WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - Ajax: AWAY WIN
Lille - Inter Milan: DRAW
Manchester City - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Napoli - Bayern Munich: DRAW
Otelul Galati - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Lyon: HOME WIN
The early game features a Group B encounter between last-place CSKA Moscow and surprising first place Trabzonspor. This is a game CSKA desperately needs - they only have one point from their first two games and dropped their last game to struggling Inter at home. Trabzonspor has impressed, snatching a win in Milan while playing well in a draw against Ligue 1 high-fliers Lille. Trabzonspor have kept up their good form domestically and will certainly not be overmatched in Russia, but Russian teams are usually strong at home and CSKA will know that they need this game. I think the Russians will take a tight win going into the next fixture in Turkey.
I feel like I must write about Group A because of the dearth of talent between the four teams. Napoli takes on Bayern while City is home to Villarreal. I think City will take care of Villarreal without too much trouble, and while Bayern looks like the best team in the group, Napoli are very strong at home and have loads of attacking power. Bayern's backline has been shaky in the past, but they have not conceded a goal in eight straight domestic games - quite an impressive run of form. Having Manuel Neuer in goal certainly helped solidify the defense. Napoli has the talent to win here, but a 0-0 or 1-1 draw looks like the likely result.
Basel hosts Benfica tomorrow to begin the home-and-home, which is huge for both teams. Basel got a dream result in Manchester with the 3-3 draw, while the Portuguese are also off to a good start with four points from the first two games. This game is my upset pick - I think Basel wins this game to go three clear of Benfica before the teams head to Lisbon. Basel is in very impressive form and Benfica are not as strong away in Europe as they are at home. Here are all of my selections for tomorrow's games:
CSKA Moscow - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
FC Basel - Benfica: HOME WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - Ajax: AWAY WIN
Lille - Inter Milan: DRAW
Manchester City - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Napoli - Bayern Munich: DRAW
Otelul Galati - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Lyon: HOME WIN
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Key Points to Look At For the Remainder of the Premier League Season
This week highlighted a few questions that will exist for the entire Premier League season:
Will any team punish Manchester United’s defensive weaknesses? It seems like nearly every week there is a discussion about United’s defense, and after the poor showing in a 3-3 draw against Basel midweek, United again looked fragile in defense during their 2-0 win over Norwich. A clean sheet doesn’t really tell the story – there were numerous chances (not just half-chances) that Norwich had to score, with Anthony Pilkington particularly culpable. Norwich is not one of the better teams in the league, but Chelsea and Tottenham have also failed to punish United’s faults in the back. Is it just luck that United are not giving up as many goals, or is their defensive scene not as bad as it looks at times? It will be interesting to see if they continue to get the breaks or if they are finally punished for their weak defending.
Can Manchester City put aside its off-field issues to win any trophies this season? Carlos Tevez struck again this week, as did Edin Dzeko, and the City formula seemed to be unraveling again. But a thumping 4-0 win over Blackburn over the weekend seemed to put the issues to the side, despite an injury to Sergio Aguero. With the great investment City’s owners have made in the team comes the egos of overpaid players. If Roberto Mancini can continue to get results from his side, they have the talent and experience to challenge for the top in every competition. If the other issues consume the side, they will likely endure another trophy-less season.
Who will take fourth place in the league? A common question for the past few years – however, this season presents only two real candidates for fourth: Tottenham and Liverpool. It looks like a three-horse race for the title between United, City and Chelsea; I don’t think Newcastle is a legitimate contender despite their blazing form, and Arsenal is still a ways away from being in serious contention. Tottenham looks very strong, with a flurry of attacking options in Adebayor, Defoe, Modric, Bale, and Van der Vaart. Liverpool have not been as impressive of late, but also have strong attacking options with Carroll, Suarez, Adam, and Gerrard on his return. This race could involve more teams if something unexpected happens, but it looks like a two-team duel for fourth.
Which relegation contenders will stay consistent enough to stay up? This is shaping up to be one of the best relegation battles of recent years, as the promoted teams are all playing well so far. Many years the key to survival is consistency, and avoiding long stretches without taking three points from a game. Bolton are currently in a six-game slide, while Blackburn and Wolves have also endured stretches in the early season without gaining points. The biggest games for lower-table sides are the games in which they play each other, while points gained against the top sides are “bonuses.” Early losses against Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City are of little concern to sides like Norwich and Swansea, but the final standings will likely be decided when they face off against each other.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
UCL Matchday 2 - Part II
The first matchday brought a lot of excitement and controversy - primarily surrounding Manchester clubs United and City, who both fared poorly in the day's action. Despite missing many of their first team stars, many people, including myself, thought United would take all three points at home to Basel without a problem. In the end, they were fortunate to gain a point, with Young's late header saving the day. United's major problem is their weakness at the back, and their enormous scoring output at the beginning of the season only masked their defensive weaknesses. Conceding three goals to an unfancied Basel side at home is a very poor result, and as SAF said, is a true wake-up call to United. They cannot defend like this much longer and expect to continue to sit at the top of the table. City's problems are both on the field and off it, and it's such a dramatic mess that I don't even want to talk about it much. All I have to say is, Tevez needs to go, and I would kick Mancini out the door with him if I could get Mourinho. That all remains to be seen though.
I surprised myself a bit by getting six out of eight positive selections from yesterday's games, only foiled by United's stinker and Inter's win in Russia. I thought that slate of games was a bit more unpredictable, but we'll see. Headlining the day's action is Valencia and Chelsea in Spain, which marks Juan Mata's return to his former employers. The Blues should be far too strong for this Valencia side, despite their good form. Arsenal - Olympiakos has upset potential because of the Gunner's recent weak form, but it's going to be tough for the Greeks to get a point. BATE is 21-1 odds to take down Barcelona, and while I think the Catalans will win, I think it could be far closer than the odds suggest. Here's the picks for Wednesday:
Zenit - Porto: DRAW
AC Milan - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN
Arsenal - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
BATE Borisov - Barcelona: AWAY WIN
Bayer Leverkusen - Genk: HOME WIN
Marseille - Dortmund: DRAW
Shakhtar - APOEL: HOME WIN
Valencia - Chelsea: AWAY WIN
I surprised myself a bit by getting six out of eight positive selections from yesterday's games, only foiled by United's stinker and Inter's win in Russia. I thought that slate of games was a bit more unpredictable, but we'll see. Headlining the day's action is Valencia and Chelsea in Spain, which marks Juan Mata's return to his former employers. The Blues should be far too strong for this Valencia side, despite their good form. Arsenal - Olympiakos has upset potential because of the Gunner's recent weak form, but it's going to be tough for the Greeks to get a point. BATE is 21-1 odds to take down Barcelona, and while I think the Catalans will win, I think it could be far closer than the odds suggest. Here's the picks for Wednesday:
Zenit - Porto: DRAW
AC Milan - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN
Arsenal - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
BATE Borisov - Barcelona: AWAY WIN
Bayer Leverkusen - Genk: HOME WIN
Marseille - Dortmund: DRAW
Shakhtar - APOEL: HOME WIN
Valencia - Chelsea: AWAY WIN
Monday, September 26, 2011
Premier League - Week 6; Champions League Matchday 2
Not much time to write this week, luckily there wasn't too much to write about. United finally dropped their first points of the season at Stoke, who is getting better and better every day. If this club continues on the course it's on, it could be a powerhouse in England in the future, while also having done it the "right" way. Everyone's favorite #9, Fernando Torres, managed to do his second inexplicable thing in two weeks to cancel out a well taken goal, receiving a red card towards the end of the first half against Norwich. The result was never in doubt - it's just puzzling what goes on in Torres' head sometimes. The major positive for Chelsea is that he seems to be back on track with his finishing. There weren't too many other exciting games this weekend, although I thought Norwich looked very good today against a disappointing Sunderland side that should be much better. Sunderland has experience in the back with Brown and O'Shea, brought in Bendtner to fill the holes up top left by Gyan and Welbeck, and Sessegnon to provide explosiveness in midfield. The Black Cats should be much better, and Steve Bruce will have to start worrying about his job if the results do not improve.
Tomorrow brings Matchday 2 of the Champions League. There are some great matchups, headlined, as will be throughout this year's group stage, by Group A. Bayern and Manchester City square off in Munich tomorrow, with City sitting joint top in the EPL and Bayern top of the Bundesliga with six straight wins. CSKA-Inter should be interesting as well, with Russian teams typically very strong at home and Inter finally beginning to end their swoon. Trabzonspor-Lille could be interesting as well - the Turks are top of the group with the opening win in Italy. Here's my picks for tomorrow:
CSKA Moscow - Inter Milan: DRAW
Bayern Munich - Manchester City: HOME WIN
Lyon - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Manchester United - FC Basel: HOME WIN
Napoli - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Otelul - Benfica: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Ajax: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - Lille: DRAW
Tomorrow brings Matchday 2 of the Champions League. There are some great matchups, headlined, as will be throughout this year's group stage, by Group A. Bayern and Manchester City square off in Munich tomorrow, with City sitting joint top in the EPL and Bayern top of the Bundesliga with six straight wins. CSKA-Inter should be interesting as well, with Russian teams typically very strong at home and Inter finally beginning to end their swoon. Trabzonspor-Lille could be interesting as well - the Turks are top of the group with the opening win in Italy. Here's my picks for tomorrow:
CSKA Moscow - Inter Milan: DRAW
Bayern Munich - Manchester City: HOME WIN
Lyon - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
Manchester United - FC Basel: HOME WIN
Napoli - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Otelul - Benfica: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Ajax: HOME WIN
Trabzonspor - Lille: DRAW
Monday, September 19, 2011
Premier League - Week 5 Recap
This week was a very interesting one in the Premier League. There were a lot of goals, and we had the year's best game so far in Manchester United's 3-1 win over Chelsea. Arsenal and Liverpool struggled again and Manchester City finally dropped points.
There were many things to take from Sunday's game between United and Chelsea, the most important being that, despite the opinions of many writers, there are three contenders for the title this year. Chelsea lost the match but dominated the game, which as a Chelsea fan, leaves me disappointed but encouraged. It wasn't clear that Chelsea had the quality to contend with the heralded "Manchester clubs" at the top, but the Blues played their best game even though the result was a loss. Two of Manchester United's goals were scored from offside positions, and Rooney's goal was an unfortunate deflection, while Chelsea missed numerous glaring chances, most notably Torres and Ramires. United played very well in the attacking third, and could have scored more themselves, so I am not going to argue that the win was completely undeserved. On another day, this is a Chelsea win, but Sunday they simply were not good enough in front of goal, and United took the chances they had. Nani played the best game I'd ever seen from him, even though he threw in a theatrical fall to earn the penalty. From United's point of view, they should hail the result, but realize the midfield is weak defensively and the back four have quite a bit of work to do. Chelsea can look at this game as further evidence that they are a true contender, but they must finish in front of goal much better if they are to survive all season.
The next tier of teams, which to me contains Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham, is looking like a season-long saga of the battle for fourth. Tottenham look front-runners right now after demolishing Liverpool 4-0, but also because their squad looks the deepest and most likely to endure the whole season. They have strong attackers in Van der Vaart, Defoe, Adebayor and Bale, spectacular midfielders in Modric and Parker, and a decent enough back line to not leak in too many goals. This is the major problem for both Liverpool and Arsenal, even though I think that Liverpool's defensive issues stem more from their shoddy midfield play. Liverpool simply isn't getting enough from Charlie Adam or Jordan Henderson, and unfortunately for the Reds, Luis Suarez can't win them every game on his own. Carroll looks lost up top and their defensive record looks like it did in the preseason. However, it is not as bad as Arsenal's, which is worst in the Premier League after conceding four more goals at Blackburn. It's time to get serious for Arsenal - these type of performances cannot continue if they are to contend in any competition. The defending is dreadful, and it seems like whenever the opposing team has the ball in Arsenal's final third there is going to be a goal. They surely miss Vermaelen, but his absence is not the only problem. Every game is huge for the Gunners now as they try and regain their form.
All three promoted clubs won on Saturday, and while none of them played particularly strong opposition, it gives them hope of staying up this year. Swansea's win was the most important, as they finally scored their first goals of the season in earning their first ever Premier League win. How Newcastle is yet to lose this season is beyond me, as their squad is constantly being depleted, but they have continued a strong start with a 1-1 draw at Villa. QPR looks like they could be for real, with the new signings proving their worth. They could contend for a top-half spot if they avoid injuries.
Carling Cup games this week won't be too interesting, then we're back to the Champions League next week. Next weekend's games are also pretty unappetizing, but Stoke-Manchester United should be interesting, as well as QPR-Aston Villa.
There were many things to take from Sunday's game between United and Chelsea, the most important being that, despite the opinions of many writers, there are three contenders for the title this year. Chelsea lost the match but dominated the game, which as a Chelsea fan, leaves me disappointed but encouraged. It wasn't clear that Chelsea had the quality to contend with the heralded "Manchester clubs" at the top, but the Blues played their best game even though the result was a loss. Two of Manchester United's goals were scored from offside positions, and Rooney's goal was an unfortunate deflection, while Chelsea missed numerous glaring chances, most notably Torres and Ramires. United played very well in the attacking third, and could have scored more themselves, so I am not going to argue that the win was completely undeserved. On another day, this is a Chelsea win, but Sunday they simply were not good enough in front of goal, and United took the chances they had. Nani played the best game I'd ever seen from him, even though he threw in a theatrical fall to earn the penalty. From United's point of view, they should hail the result, but realize the midfield is weak defensively and the back four have quite a bit of work to do. Chelsea can look at this game as further evidence that they are a true contender, but they must finish in front of goal much better if they are to survive all season.
The next tier of teams, which to me contains Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham, is looking like a season-long saga of the battle for fourth. Tottenham look front-runners right now after demolishing Liverpool 4-0, but also because their squad looks the deepest and most likely to endure the whole season. They have strong attackers in Van der Vaart, Defoe, Adebayor and Bale, spectacular midfielders in Modric and Parker, and a decent enough back line to not leak in too many goals. This is the major problem for both Liverpool and Arsenal, even though I think that Liverpool's defensive issues stem more from their shoddy midfield play. Liverpool simply isn't getting enough from Charlie Adam or Jordan Henderson, and unfortunately for the Reds, Luis Suarez can't win them every game on his own. Carroll looks lost up top and their defensive record looks like it did in the preseason. However, it is not as bad as Arsenal's, which is worst in the Premier League after conceding four more goals at Blackburn. It's time to get serious for Arsenal - these type of performances cannot continue if they are to contend in any competition. The defending is dreadful, and it seems like whenever the opposing team has the ball in Arsenal's final third there is going to be a goal. They surely miss Vermaelen, but his absence is not the only problem. Every game is huge for the Gunners now as they try and regain their form.
All three promoted clubs won on Saturday, and while none of them played particularly strong opposition, it gives them hope of staying up this year. Swansea's win was the most important, as they finally scored their first goals of the season in earning their first ever Premier League win. How Newcastle is yet to lose this season is beyond me, as their squad is constantly being depleted, but they have continued a strong start with a 1-1 draw at Villa. QPR looks like they could be for real, with the new signings proving their worth. They could contend for a top-half spot if they avoid injuries.
Carling Cup games this week won't be too interesting, then we're back to the Champions League next week. Next weekend's games are also pretty unappetizing, but Stoke-Manchester United should be interesting, as well as QPR-Aston Villa.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Champions League - Day 1 Matchday 1
Day 1 featured all close, exciting contests. Many of the underdogs in today's contests played far better than expected, with AC Milan snatching a 2-2 draw in Barcelona, and Genk holding Valencia 0-0 at home. I picked mostly favorites for the matches, leaving me with only two correct selections out of the eight games. Oh well, I never said they were going to be right. My team of the day is APOEL, as they came from behind to take a 2-1 victory over Russian power Zenit. Zenit is backed by international experience and expectation, as well as finances, making them favorites in the match. As has proven in the last few years, Cypriot teams are well trained, and while they are not the most talented, they are organize and difficult to break down. Many of the "minnows" in the Champions League each year are pounded when facing larger sides because of a lack of discipline in the back. Through thirteen Champions league matches, a Cypriot side has yet to lose a match by more than one goal. Extremely impressive. As clear underdogs in Group G, APOEL have given themselves a great start by gaining the win today.
Tomorrow's games are not nearly as appetizing, but Manchester City - Napoli will feature some of the world's best attacking players, while Villarreal - Bayern also features two European giants. Every game in Group A should be fantastic this year. Benfica - Manchester United could be interesting if Benfica can continue the typical Portuguese play at home, but United should be far too much to handle. Here's my predictions for Day 2, hopefully they go better than Day 1:
Ajax - Lyon: DRAW
Basel - Otelul: HOME WIN
Benfica - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - Real Madrid: AWAY WIN
Inter - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
Lille - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Manchester City - Napoli: HOME WIN
Villarreal - Bayern Munich: AWAY WIN
Tomorrow's games are not nearly as appetizing, but Manchester City - Napoli will feature some of the world's best attacking players, while Villarreal - Bayern also features two European giants. Every game in Group A should be fantastic this year. Benfica - Manchester United could be interesting if Benfica can continue the typical Portuguese play at home, but United should be far too much to handle. Here's my predictions for Day 2, hopefully they go better than Day 1:
Ajax - Lyon: DRAW
Basel - Otelul: HOME WIN
Benfica - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - Real Madrid: AWAY WIN
Inter - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
Lille - CSKA Moscow: DRAW
Manchester City - Napoli: HOME WIN
Villarreal - Bayern Munich: AWAY WIN
Monday, September 12, 2011
Premier League Week 4
Week 4 in the Premier League saw more of the same, as the Manchester clubs romped to easy wins. Chelsea had their first solid performance of the year in defeated Sunderland away, while Arsenal and Liverpool struggled. Wolves lost their first game of the year home to Tottenham while West Brom picked up their first win away to Norwich.
The beginning of this season has been marked by the attacking prowess of Man City and Man United, both winning all four of their opening games with large goal differences. Wayne Rooney and Sergio Aguero have been particularly prolific, and both teams have played fluent, clinical attacking football. The two clubs look the deepest and most talented in the league, but after seeing Chelsea collapse after a similar start last year, I will not declare those two the only two contenders. Chelsea finally put in a total performance on Saturday, defeating Sunderland 2-1. Danny Sturridge was a spark for the offense, scoring a great goal to give Chelsea a two-goal advantage. Torres again looked uninterested, and I am beginning to think more and more that he does not deserve a place on this team. With attacking options in Drogba, Anelka, Sturridge, and Lukaku, Torres must return his play - and his attitude - to form, or Villas-Boas should not even consider starting him. With this performance, I see Chelsea as a serious contender - leaving three for the time being.
As for Arsenal and Liverpool, it was a weekend for forget. Arsenal finally obtained their first win of the season, albeit on a mistake by Swansea's goalkeeper, and were far from dominant in a home match against arguably the worst team in the league. There are still injuries and suspensions for Arsenal, so it will get better, but the team looks in shambles heading to Dortmund tomorrow. Liverpool put in a better performance, but failed to get a point away to Stoke. The Reds created numerous chances but failed to put any away, and Carragher gave away a silly penalty for the game's only goal. Liverpool have less to worry about than Arsenal, but if they think they can seriously contend for the title, they must be able to grind away at least a point in tough road games. Liverpool have the depth and quality to challenge for the Champions League places, but their performance in games like Saturday will define their season.
Tomorrow is one of my favorite days of the year: the beginning of the Champions League group stages. There are plenty of great matchups as well, with many of the top teams in each group playing each other. I'm going to venture some predictions for each matchday, starting with the games tomorrow. The home team is listed first.
APOEL - Zenit : DRAW
Barcelona - AC Milan: HOME WIN
Chelsea - Bayer Leverkusen: HOME WIN
Dortmund - Arsenal: HOME WIN
Porto - Shakhtar: HOME WIN
Genk - Valencia: AWAY WIN
Olympiacos - Marseille: DRAW
Plzen - BATE: HOME WIN
I expect Porto - Shakhtar to be the closest game of the day, while Dortmund - Arsenal and Olympiacos - Marseille to be very close as well. I'm looking forward to seeing Chelsea tomorrow, hopefully in a win. All games start at 2:45 EST.
The beginning of this season has been marked by the attacking prowess of Man City and Man United, both winning all four of their opening games with large goal differences. Wayne Rooney and Sergio Aguero have been particularly prolific, and both teams have played fluent, clinical attacking football. The two clubs look the deepest and most talented in the league, but after seeing Chelsea collapse after a similar start last year, I will not declare those two the only two contenders. Chelsea finally put in a total performance on Saturday, defeating Sunderland 2-1. Danny Sturridge was a spark for the offense, scoring a great goal to give Chelsea a two-goal advantage. Torres again looked uninterested, and I am beginning to think more and more that he does not deserve a place on this team. With attacking options in Drogba, Anelka, Sturridge, and Lukaku, Torres must return his play - and his attitude - to form, or Villas-Boas should not even consider starting him. With this performance, I see Chelsea as a serious contender - leaving three for the time being.
As for Arsenal and Liverpool, it was a weekend for forget. Arsenal finally obtained their first win of the season, albeit on a mistake by Swansea's goalkeeper, and were far from dominant in a home match against arguably the worst team in the league. There are still injuries and suspensions for Arsenal, so it will get better, but the team looks in shambles heading to Dortmund tomorrow. Liverpool put in a better performance, but failed to get a point away to Stoke. The Reds created numerous chances but failed to put any away, and Carragher gave away a silly penalty for the game's only goal. Liverpool have less to worry about than Arsenal, but if they think they can seriously contend for the title, they must be able to grind away at least a point in tough road games. Liverpool have the depth and quality to challenge for the Champions League places, but their performance in games like Saturday will define their season.
Tomorrow is one of my favorite days of the year: the beginning of the Champions League group stages. There are plenty of great matchups as well, with many of the top teams in each group playing each other. I'm going to venture some predictions for each matchday, starting with the games tomorrow. The home team is listed first.
APOEL - Zenit : DRAW
Barcelona - AC Milan: HOME WIN
Chelsea - Bayer Leverkusen: HOME WIN
Dortmund - Arsenal: HOME WIN
Porto - Shakhtar: HOME WIN
Genk - Valencia: AWAY WIN
Olympiacos - Marseille: DRAW
Plzen - BATE: HOME WIN
I expect Porto - Shakhtar to be the closest game of the day, while Dortmund - Arsenal and Olympiacos - Marseille to be very close as well. I'm looking forward to seeing Chelsea tomorrow, hopefully in a win. All games start at 2:45 EST.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Winners/Losers in the Transfer Window
Today concluded the summer transfer window, closing at 11 PM BST or 5 PM ET. Many interesting deadline deals took place, and there were clear winners and losers from the window.
WINNERS
QPR - Newly promoted last year from the Championship, Queens Park needed to add some experience to their squad in order to stay in the Premier League. They were able to add controversial midfielder Joey Barton, who will add some intensity along with his unorthodox style of play, winger Shaun Wright-Phillips, defenders Armand Traore and Luke Young from Arsenal and Aston Villa respectively, and today center back Anton Ferdinand. Experience in the back is key in the Premier League, and QPR have got that with their signings. SWP will provide speed on the outside and Barton will help settle the midfield. I think the most important move QPR made was one that they didn't make - they were able to keep talismanic midfielder Adel Taarabt at Loftus Road. With this squad, I think QPR is safe from relegation by a good amount, and will have the opportunity to finish in the top half of the table.
Stoke - Stoke lost Danny Welbeck this summer as his loan deal expired, but added Peter Crouch, Cameron Jerome and Wilson Palacios on deadline day. They were also able to add Matthew Upson and Jonathan Woodgate over the summer. Crouch brings a different option for any team to defend against, and should fit perfectly into Stoke's long-ball style. Palacios brings more physicality in the midfield to a team already notorious for its physical play. Upson and Woodgate are both out of their primes, but give Tony Pulis solid, experienced options to play alongside Ryan Shawcross. Well done this summer by Stoke yet again.
Bolton - Bolton were also winners this window, most importantly holding onto defender Gary Cahill, while also signing Gael Kakuta on loan, Dedryck Boyata on loan, and signing David N'Gog for an undisclosed fee. Bolton have the talent to play with some of the bigger clubs, and keeping their best player will allow them to remain exciting for the remainder of the season. Boyata provides some young talent to bolster the back and while Kakuta has yet to fill his potential on the wings, Owen Coyle is a great coach who could help his development. N'Gog also provides another attacking option for Coyle going forward.
Inter Milan - Inter watched Samuel Eto'o depart the San Siro this summer, but cashed in on his move to Anzhi, and were able to bring in Diego Forlan and Mauro Zarate to replace him. Inter also were able to hold on to Wesley Sneijder, their most important midfield player. Inter now have a plethora of attacking options, and maintained the solid core (minus Eto'o) that has helped them to their recent successes. Inter should be a close challenger to AC Milan this season for the Scudetto.
LOSERS
Arsenal - Yes, I know they just added Mikel Arteta, Per Mertesacker, Andre Santos, and Park Chu-Young in recent days, but this a disastrous window for Arsenal. They lost star left-back Gael Clichy and arguably the EPL's best midfielder, Samir Nasri, to rivals Manchester City. Captain Cesc Fabregas moved to Barcelona. Emmanuel Eboue also moved on to Galatasaray, leaving the midfield even more thin. Arsenal's new acquisitions will help them compete for a Champions League place, but nothing more. Selling three of your best players in one summer is never a good idea, and even a squad as deep as Real Madrid or Barcelona would be weakened by such moves. There are many issues surrounding each player's move, but Arsenal will be set back a few years by the departures this summer.
Everton - The club no one wants to buy saw their summer go from bad to worse. The club lost prominent midfielder Mikel Arteta to Arsenal and forward Jermaine Beckford to Leicester. They were able to secure a loan for Roysten Drenthe, but really Everton has done nothing of note. Manager David Moyes said it would be a challenge to finish in the top ten given his transfer funds, and that will be even more difficult now. Everton have a decent core so they should be safe from relegation, but Everton's saga will drag on the players and the team's results.
Valencia - Valencia sold Juan Mata to Chelsea very late in the transfer window, leaving little opportunity to find a replacement, and Joaquin to Malaga in June. Valencia have often sold many of their best players and still been a good side in the La Liga, but their Champions League campaign does not look promising against Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea. It took a near-miraculous comeback in the first week of fixtures to defeat lowly Racing Santander for Los Che, and they could struggle to reach the Champions League places this year because of their weakened squad.
WINNERS
QPR - Newly promoted last year from the Championship, Queens Park needed to add some experience to their squad in order to stay in the Premier League. They were able to add controversial midfielder Joey Barton, who will add some intensity along with his unorthodox style of play, winger Shaun Wright-Phillips, defenders Armand Traore and Luke Young from Arsenal and Aston Villa respectively, and today center back Anton Ferdinand. Experience in the back is key in the Premier League, and QPR have got that with their signings. SWP will provide speed on the outside and Barton will help settle the midfield. I think the most important move QPR made was one that they didn't make - they were able to keep talismanic midfielder Adel Taarabt at Loftus Road. With this squad, I think QPR is safe from relegation by a good amount, and will have the opportunity to finish in the top half of the table.
Stoke - Stoke lost Danny Welbeck this summer as his loan deal expired, but added Peter Crouch, Cameron Jerome and Wilson Palacios on deadline day. They were also able to add Matthew Upson and Jonathan Woodgate over the summer. Crouch brings a different option for any team to defend against, and should fit perfectly into Stoke's long-ball style. Palacios brings more physicality in the midfield to a team already notorious for its physical play. Upson and Woodgate are both out of their primes, but give Tony Pulis solid, experienced options to play alongside Ryan Shawcross. Well done this summer by Stoke yet again.
Bolton - Bolton were also winners this window, most importantly holding onto defender Gary Cahill, while also signing Gael Kakuta on loan, Dedryck Boyata on loan, and signing David N'Gog for an undisclosed fee. Bolton have the talent to play with some of the bigger clubs, and keeping their best player will allow them to remain exciting for the remainder of the season. Boyata provides some young talent to bolster the back and while Kakuta has yet to fill his potential on the wings, Owen Coyle is a great coach who could help his development. N'Gog also provides another attacking option for Coyle going forward.
Inter Milan - Inter watched Samuel Eto'o depart the San Siro this summer, but cashed in on his move to Anzhi, and were able to bring in Diego Forlan and Mauro Zarate to replace him. Inter also were able to hold on to Wesley Sneijder, their most important midfield player. Inter now have a plethora of attacking options, and maintained the solid core (minus Eto'o) that has helped them to their recent successes. Inter should be a close challenger to AC Milan this season for the Scudetto.
LOSERS
Arsenal - Yes, I know they just added Mikel Arteta, Per Mertesacker, Andre Santos, and Park Chu-Young in recent days, but this a disastrous window for Arsenal. They lost star left-back Gael Clichy and arguably the EPL's best midfielder, Samir Nasri, to rivals Manchester City. Captain Cesc Fabregas moved to Barcelona. Emmanuel Eboue also moved on to Galatasaray, leaving the midfield even more thin. Arsenal's new acquisitions will help them compete for a Champions League place, but nothing more. Selling three of your best players in one summer is never a good idea, and even a squad as deep as Real Madrid or Barcelona would be weakened by such moves. There are many issues surrounding each player's move, but Arsenal will be set back a few years by the departures this summer.
Everton - The club no one wants to buy saw their summer go from bad to worse. The club lost prominent midfielder Mikel Arteta to Arsenal and forward Jermaine Beckford to Leicester. They were able to secure a loan for Roysten Drenthe, but really Everton has done nothing of note. Manager David Moyes said it would be a challenge to finish in the top ten given his transfer funds, and that will be even more difficult now. Everton have a decent core so they should be safe from relegation, but Everton's saga will drag on the players and the team's results.
Valencia - Valencia sold Juan Mata to Chelsea very late in the transfer window, leaving little opportunity to find a replacement, and Joaquin to Malaga in June. Valencia have often sold many of their best players and still been a good side in the La Liga, but their Champions League campaign does not look promising against Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea. It took a near-miraculous comeback in the first week of fixtures to defeat lowly Racing Santander for Los Che, and they could struggle to reach the Champions League places this year because of their weakened squad.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Champions League Draw
Arsenal got through the tie in Udine as expected, although not without a scare. I got seven out of my ten picks correct, but before I congratulate myself, the three I picked incorrectly were three of the closest ties to pick. So it was an okay forecast of the round. Plzen defeating Copenhagen was teh real surprise, with the Danish champions capitulating in the final qualifying round.
Today's draw gives us a clear group of death, with Group A containing Bayern, Villarreal, Man City, and Napoli. I can honestly say that looking at this group, there is no way to predict a winner, runner-up, third or fourth place. Bayern have the squad strength, tradition, and experience, but often lack the consistency to be considered a far-and-away favorite. Villarreal have very strong attacking options in Nilmar and Rossi, as well as experience in the back with Marchena, but have failed to impress in Europe in recent years. Man City probably have the strongest squad, and a manager with loads of European experience, but the group together and the club have no experience in the Champions League. Napoli also have strong forwards in Cavani, Lavezzi, and Hamsik, along with new signing Inler, but are also making their debut in the Champions League. Any order of those teams in the standings would be plausible to me at this point, so this group should be great to watch.
The other groups are generally not as close in quality, although there are some other parts of the draw which stand out. Manchester United again got an easy draw (probably the easiest of any Pot 1 side), with only a trip to Benfica that could really trouble them. Chelsea's draw was decent, as Valencia will be tough even without Mata and Leverkusen finished very strongly in the Bundesliga last year. Arsenal's draw was the second toughest, pulling French giants Marseille, Greek champions Olympiakos, and German champs Dortmund. Arsenal must keep focused in order to get through this group, as there will be no easy fixtures. I believe the tightest group (although being the least flashy) will be Group G, containing Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit, and APOEL. Other than Group A, these teams are closest in quality, all of experience in the Champions League, and have the ability to get the results they need to get through. Porto is a clear favorite and APOEL a clear underdog, but this group should be very competitive from start to finish.
The Europa League's action today saw all four competing English teams go through, along with giants Schalke, PSV, PSG, and Lazio go through. Roma were eliminated by Slovan Bratislava (yikes). That draw will bring more interesting matchups, of a far lower quality though. We will see tomorrow. Hopefully the end of Sevilla-Hannover brings some drama.
Today's draw gives us a clear group of death, with Group A containing Bayern, Villarreal, Man City, and Napoli. I can honestly say that looking at this group, there is no way to predict a winner, runner-up, third or fourth place. Bayern have the squad strength, tradition, and experience, but often lack the consistency to be considered a far-and-away favorite. Villarreal have very strong attacking options in Nilmar and Rossi, as well as experience in the back with Marchena, but have failed to impress in Europe in recent years. Man City probably have the strongest squad, and a manager with loads of European experience, but the group together and the club have no experience in the Champions League. Napoli also have strong forwards in Cavani, Lavezzi, and Hamsik, along with new signing Inler, but are also making their debut in the Champions League. Any order of those teams in the standings would be plausible to me at this point, so this group should be great to watch.
The other groups are generally not as close in quality, although there are some other parts of the draw which stand out. Manchester United again got an easy draw (probably the easiest of any Pot 1 side), with only a trip to Benfica that could really trouble them. Chelsea's draw was decent, as Valencia will be tough even without Mata and Leverkusen finished very strongly in the Bundesliga last year. Arsenal's draw was the second toughest, pulling French giants Marseille, Greek champions Olympiakos, and German champs Dortmund. Arsenal must keep focused in order to get through this group, as there will be no easy fixtures. I believe the tightest group (although being the least flashy) will be Group G, containing Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit, and APOEL. Other than Group A, these teams are closest in quality, all of experience in the Champions League, and have the ability to get the results they need to get through. Porto is a clear favorite and APOEL a clear underdog, but this group should be very competitive from start to finish.
The Europa League's action today saw all four competing English teams go through, along with giants Schalke, PSV, PSG, and Lazio go through. Roma were eliminated by Slovan Bratislava (yikes). That draw will bring more interesting matchups, of a far lower quality though. We will see tomorrow. Hopefully the end of Sevilla-Hannover brings some drama.
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